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Tourism and Growth in European Countries: An Application of Likelihood-Based Panel Cointegration

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  • Felipa de Mello-Sampayo
  • Sofia de Sousa-Vale

Abstract

This paper applies likelihood-based panel cointegration techniques to examine the existence of a long run relationship between GDP, tourism earnings per tourist and total trade volume for a panel of European countries over the period 1988{2010. Removing the cross dependency, our panel tourism-led growth model indicates that tourism development has a higher impact on GDP in the North than in South European countries. The policy implication of this result is that for this group of countries, the best strategy is to raise tourism receipts. Furthermore, the volume of trade shows a signi cant and much more stronger e ect on the long run economic growth in our sample economies than tourism does. JEL Classi cation: F43; C33; L83

Suggested Citation

  • Felipa de Mello-Sampayo & Sofia de Sousa-Vale, 2012. "Tourism and Growth in European Countries: An Application of Likelihood-Based Panel Cointegration," Working Papers Department of Economics 2012/17, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
  • Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp172012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(03), pages 597-625, June.
    2. Moon, H.R.Hyungsik Roger & Perron, Benoit, 2004. "Testing for a unit root in panels with dynamic factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 81-126, September.
    3. Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jorda, 2002. "Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(7), pages 877-884.
    4. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    5. Rolf Larsson & Johan Lyhagen & Mickael Lothgren, 2001. "Likelihood-based cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages 1-41.
    6. Salih Katircioglu, 2009. "Tourism, trade and growth: the case of Cyprus," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(21), pages 2741-2750.
    7. Larsson, Rolf & Lyhagen, Johan, 1999. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Multivariate Panel Cointegration Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 331, Stockholm School of Economics.
    8. Lokman Gunduz & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2005. "Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 499-504.
    9. Juan Luis Eugenio-Martín & Noelia Martín Morales & Riccardo Scarpa, 2004. "Tourism and Economic Growth in Latin American Countries: A Panel Data Approach," Working Papers 2004.26, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hafner, Kurt A. & Mayer-Foulkes, David, 2013. "Fertility, economic growth, and human development causal determinants of the developed lifestyle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 107-120.
    2. Mina Dragouni & George Filis & Nikolaos Antonakakis, 2013. "Time-Varying Interdependencies of Tourism and Economic Growth: Evidence from European Countries," FIW Working Paper series 128, FIW.
    3. Bianca Biagi & Claudio Detotto, 2014. "Crime as Tourism Externality," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(4), pages 693-709, April.
    4. Ma, Tao & Hong, Tao & Zhang, Haozhe, 2015. "Tourism spatial spillover effects and urban economic growth," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 74-80.
    5. João Sousa Andrade & Marta Simões & Adelaide Duarte, 2013. "Despesa Pública em Educação e Saúde e Crescimento Económico: Um Contributo para o Debate sobre as Funções Sociais do Estado," GEMF Working Papers 2013-18, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tourism; Economic growth; Rank tests; Panel unit root tests; Panel cointegration;

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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