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Time-Varying Interdependencies of Tourism and Economic Growth: Evidence from European Countries

  • Antonakakis, Nikolaos
  • Dragouni, Mina
  • Filis, George

In this study, we employ the novel measure of a VAR-based spillover index, developed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) to investigate the time-varying relationship between tourism and economic growth in selected European countries. Overall, the findings suggest that (i) the tourism-economy relationship is not stable over time in terms of both its magnitude and direction, (ii) the relationship exhibits patterns in its magnitude and/or direction during major economic events, such as the Great Recession of 2007 and the Eurozone debt crisis of 2010, and (iii) the impact of these economic events on the relationship between the tourism sector and the economy is more apparent to Cyprus, Greece, Portugal and Spain, which are the European countries that have experienced the most severe economic downturn since 2009. These results are important to tourism actors and policy makers, suggesting that they should pay particular attention to this time-varying relationship and the factors that influence it when designing their tourism strategies. In addition, the findings of this study carry significant implications for researchers, as they underline a strand of the literature which deserves further attention.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 48715.

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Date of creation: 01 Aug 2013
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:48715
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  1. Antonakakis, Nikolaos, 2012. "Exchange return co-movements and volatility spillovers before and after the introduction of euro," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 1091-1109.
  2. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2008. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, With Application to Global Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 13811, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jordá, 2000. "Tourism As A Long-Run Economic Growth Factor: The Spanish Case," Working Papers. Serie EC 2000-10, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  4. Bichaka Fayissa & Christian Nsiah & Badassa Tadasse, 2009. "Tourism and Economic Growth in Latin American Countries(LAC): Further Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 200902, Middle Tennessee State University, Department of Economics and Finance.
  5. Peersman, Gert & Van Robays, Ine, 2012. "Cross-country differences in the effects of oil shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1532-1547.
  6. Paolo Figini & Laura Vici, 2009. "Tourism and Growth in a Cross-Section of Countries," Working Paper Series 01_09, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  7. Zhou, Xiangyi & Zhang, Weijin & Zhang, Jie, 2012. "Volatility spillovers between the Chinese and world equity markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 247-270.
  8. Arslanturk, Yalcin & Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin, 2011. "Time-varying linkages between tourism receipts and economic growth in a small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 664-671.
  9. Espinoza, Raphael & Fornari, Fabio & Lombardi, Marco J., 2009. "The role of financial variables in predicting economic activity," Working Paper Series 1108, European Central Bank.
  10. M. J. Lombardi & I. Van Robays, 2011. "Do Financial Investors Destabilize the Oil Price?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 11/760, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  11. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Leitemo, Kai, 2005. "Identifying the Interdependence between US Monetary Policy and the Stock Market," Memorandum 12/2005, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  12. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
  13. Felipa de Mello-Sampayo & Sofia de Sousa-Vale, 2010. "Tourism and Growth in European Countries: An Application of Likelihood-Based Panel Cointegration," Working Papers Series 1 ercwp0510, ISCTE-IUL, Business Research Unit (BRU-IUL).
  14. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
  15. Mario Holzner, 2010. "Tourism and Economic Development: the Beach Disease?," wiiw Working Papers 66, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
  16. McMillan, David G. & Speight, Alan E.H., 2010. "Return and volatility spillovers in three euro exchange rates," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 79-93, March.
  17. Laopodis, Nikiforos T., 2009. "Are fundamentals still relevant for European economies in the post-Euro period?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 835-850, September.
  18. Edgar J Sanchez Carrera & W. Adrian Risso & Juan Gabriel Brida, 2008. "Tourism's Impact on Long-Run Mexican Economic Growth," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(21), pages 1-8.
  19. JG. Brida & M. Pulina, 2010. "A literature review on the tourism-led-growth hypothesis," Working Paper CRENoS 201017, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
  20. Duncan, Andrew S. & Kabundi, Alain, 2013. "Domestic and foreign sources of volatility spillover to South African asset classes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 566-573.
  21. Egon Smeral, 2009. "The Impact of the Financial and Economic Crisis on European Tourism," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 82(3), pages 195-208, March.
  22. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
  23. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-50, July.
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