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Oil prices, tourism income and economic growth: A structural VAR approach for European Mediterranean countries

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  • Chatziantoniou, Ioannis
  • Filis, George
  • Eeckels, Bruno
  • Apostolakis, Alexandros

Abstract

In this study, a structural VAR model is employed to investigate the relationship among oil price shocks, tourism variables and economic indicators in four European Mediterranean countries. In contrast with the current tourism literature, we distinguish between three oil price shocks, namely, supply-side, aggregate demand and oil specific demand shocks. Overall, our results indicate that oil specific demand shocks contemporaneously affect inflation and the tourism sector equity index, whereas these shocks do not seem to have any lagged effects. By contrast, aggregate demand oil price shocks exercise a lagged effect, either directly or indirectly, to tourism generated income and economic growth. The paper does not provide any evidence that supply-side shocks trigger any responses from the remaining variables. Results are important for tourism agents and policy makers, should they need to create hedging strategies against future oil price movements or plan for economic policy developments.

Suggested Citation

  • Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George & Eeckels, Bruno & Apostolakis, Alexandros, 2013. "Oil prices, tourism income and economic growth: A structural VAR approach for European Mediterranean countries," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 331-341.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:touman:v:36:y:2013:i:c:p:331-341
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2012.10.012
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price shocks; Tourism income; Economic growth; SVAR; European countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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