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Oil price shocks and EMU sovereign yield spreads

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  • Filippidis, Michail
  • Filis, George
  • Kizys, Renatas

Abstract

This study examines for the first time the relationship among the oil price shocks and the sovereign yield spreads in the EMU (which is collectively the largest oil-importer of the world), in a time-varying environment. In particular, we examine the time-varying correlation between oil price shocks and the 10-year sovereign yield spread of core and periphery countries in the EMU, by employing a scalar-BEKK framework. The main findings reveal that the correlations between sovereign yield spreads and oil price shocks are indeed time-varying and are influenced by specific economic and geopolitical events that took place during the study period. Furthermore, even though the correlation patterns are constantly low or zero prior to the Great Recession, a change is revealed in the post-2008 period, when correlations become moderate and more volatile. Finally, we do not observe noteworthy differences in the correlation behaviour between core and periphery countries to different oil price shocks. The findings of this study are particularly useful and provide valuable information to marketplace participants.

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  • Filippidis, Michail & Filis, George & Kizys, Renatas, 2020. "Oil price shocks and EMU sovereign yield spreads," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:86:y:2020:i:c:s0140988319304530
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2019.104656
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    EMU countries; EMU core and periphery; Oil price shocks; Scalar-BEKK; Time-varying correlation; 10-Year sovereign yield spread;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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