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Oil Price Shocks and Yield Curve Dynamics in Emerging Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Oguzhan Cepni

    (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Haci Bayram Mah. Istiklal Cad. No:10 06050, Ankara, Turkey)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa)

  • Cenk C. Karahan

    (Department of Management, Bogazici University, Istanbul, 34342, Turkey)

  • Brian M. Lucey

    (Trinity Business School, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin 2, Ireland, Institute of Business Research, University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, University of Sydney Business School, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia)

Abstract

In a local projections framework, we study the impact of oil price shocks, based on a refined approach to disentangle oil price movements, on the dynamics of the entire yield curve in nineteen emerging economies with different positions on the oil market. Responses of the term structure factors to oil market shocks are shown to differ conditional on not only the underlying sources that drive oil price, but also based on the oil-dependence of these economies. In particular, we find that oil price risk shocks put upward pressure on the level, slope, and curvature of interest rates across the board. Supply-driven shocks in oil markets cause a rise in the level of interest rates in oil-importing economies more significantly, yet the downward impact on yield curve slope is more pronounced in oil-exporting countries. Demand-driven shocks have a significant and persistent upward impact on level factors in oil-importing countries. Furthermore, the effect of precautionary demand shocks on the curvature factor is more pronounced in oil-importing countries vis-vis oil-exporters. Significance, direction, and duration of our results may guide monetary policymakers in emerging countries as well as international investors in portfolio and hedging decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Cenk C. Karahan & Brian M. Lucey, 2020. "Oil Price Shocks and Yield Curve Dynamics in Emerging Markets," Working Papers 202036, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:202036
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    Cited by:

    1. Jiawen Luo & Jingyi Deng & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta, 2025. "Forecasting GDP with Oil Price Shocks: A Mixed-Frequency Time-Varying Perspective," Working Papers 202523, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Khan, Nasir & Saleem, Asima & Ozkan, Oktay, 2023. "Do geopolitical oil price risk influence stock market returns and volatility of Pakistan: Evidence from novel non-parametric quantile causality approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    3. Yildirim, Zekeriya & Guloglu, Hasan, 2024. "Macro-financial transmission of global oil shocks to BRIC countries — International financial (uncertainty) conditions matter," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(C).
    4. Iania, Leonardo & Lyrio, Marco & Nersisyan, Liana, 2024. "Oil price shocks and bond risk premia: Evidence from a panel of 15 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    5. Iania, Leonardo & Lyrio, Marco & Nersisyan, Liana, 2023. "Oil Price Shocks and Bond Risk Premia: Evidence from a Panel of 15 Countries," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2023002, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    6. Shivam Sehgal & Jaspal Singh, 2025. "Impact of Global and Domestic Factors on Indian Government Bond Yields," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 32(2), pages 465-488, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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