Domestic and foreign sources of volatility spillover to South African asset classes
The paper characterises domestic and foreign sources of volatility transmission for South African (SA) bonds, commodities, currencies, and equities. We introduce a small-open-economy extension of the volatility spillover model proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012). Based on generalised variance decompositions (Pesaran and Shin, 1998) of a vector autoregressive model, this approach combines bidirectional spillovers exchanged by domestic assets with volatility injections imported from shocks to the global financial system. The analysis relates to a sample of daily observations ranging from October 1996 to June 2010. The estimated spillover levels are time-varying, and increase during domestic and foreign crises. Average domestic spillovers of 38% exceed average foreign spillovers of 4.7%, and maximum domestic spillovers estimated for the United States for a similar sample period (Diebold and Yilmaz, 2012). These findings suggest a high degree of systemic risk in SA and, furthermore, that this risk is predominantly related to country-specific factors. Commodity and equity shocks are identified as the primary sources of spillovers to other asset classes.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2007.
"Measuring financial asset return and volatility spillovers, with application to global equity markets,"
CFS Working Paper Series
2007/02, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- FrancisX. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, 01.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2008. "Measuring financial asset return and volatilty spillovers, with application to global equity markets," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/26, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2008. "Measuring financial asset return and volatility spillovers, with application to global equity markets," Working Papers 08-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2007. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, With Application to Global Equity Markets," PIER Working Paper Archive 07-002, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yılmaz, 2007. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, With Application to Global Equity Markets," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 0705, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
- Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2008. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, With Application to Global Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 13811, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrea Beltratti & Claudio Morana, 2006.
"Comovements in International Stock Markets,"
ICER Working Papers
3-2006, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
- Morana, Claudio & Beltratti, Andrea, 2008. "Comovements in international stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 31-45, February.
- Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012.
"Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
- Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2010. "Better to Give than to Receive: Predictive Directional Measurement of Volatility Spillovers," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1001, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum, revised Mar 2010.
- Vance L. Martin & Mardi Dungey, 2007. "Unravelling financial market linkages during crises," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 89-119.
- Elena Dumitrescu & Rabah Arezki & Andreas Freytag & Marc Quintyn, 2012. "Commodity Prices and Exchange Rate Volatility; Lessons from South Africaâ€™s Capital Account Liberalization," IMF Working Papers 12/168, International Monetary Fund.
- Andrew stuart Duncan & Guangling"dave" Liu, 2009.
"Modelling South African Currency Crises As Structural Changes In The Volatility Of The Rand,"
South African Journal of Economics,
Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(3), pages 363-379, 09.
- Andrew S Duncan & Guangling D Liu, 2009. "Modelling South African Currency Crises as Structural Changes in the Volatility of the Rand," Working Papers 140, Economic Research Southern Africa.
- Tobias Knedlik & Rolf Scheufele, 2008. "Forecasting Currency Crises: Which Methods Signaled The South African Crisis Of June 2006?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 76(3), pages 367-383, 09.
- Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 1999.
"What triggers market jitters? A chronicle of the Asian crisis,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
2094, The World Bank.
- Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 1999. "What triggers market jitters?: A chronicle of the Asian crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 537-560, August.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Sergio L. Schmukler, 1999. "What triggers market jitters: a chronicle of the Asian crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 634, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Andrew Stuart Duncan & Alain Kabundi, 2011. "Global Financial Crises and Time-varying Volatility Comovement in World Equity Markets," Working Papers 253, Economic Research Southern Africa.
- MArdi Dungey & Renee Fry & Brenda Gonzales-Hermosillo & Vance L. Martin & Chrismin Tang, 2008.
"Are Financial Crises Alike?,"
CAMA Working Papers
2008-15, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Stefano Battiston & Domenico Delli Gatti & Mauro Gallegati & Bruce C. Greenwald & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2009.
"Liaisons Dangereuses: Increasing Connectivity, Risk Sharing, and Systemic Risk,"
NBER Working Papers
15611, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Battiston, Stefano & Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2012. "Liaisons dangereuses: Increasing connectivity, risk sharing, and systemic risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1121-1141.
- Laura E. Kodres & Matthew Pritsker, 2002. "A Rational Expectations Model of Financial Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 769-799, 04.
- Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1997.
"Generalised Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9710, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
- Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
- Andrew S. Duncan & Alain Kabundi, 2011. "Volatility Spillovers across South African Asset Classes during Domestic and Foreign," Working Papers 202, Economic Research Southern Africa.
- Fleming, Jeff & Kirby, Chris & Ostdiek, Barbara, 1998. "Information and volatility linkages in the stock, bond, and money markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 111-137, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:31:y:2013:i:c:p:566-573. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.