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Examining the Causal Relationship between Tourism and Economic Growth: Spillover Index Approach for Selected CEE and SEE Countries

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  • Tihana Škrinjarić

    () (Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia)

Abstract

Debate on tourism-led growth and growth-led tourism is still ongoing today, with much research done for developed countries and those which are popular tourist destinations over the world. Surprisingly, the research is scarce for the Central and Eastern European (CEE) and South and Eastern European (SEE) countries. The contribution of this research is examining the dynamic relationship between spillovers of tourism growth and economic growth for CEE and SEE countries for the first time in the literature. The methodology used in the study (spillover indices) allows for estimating the dynamic relationship throughout rolling indices. Based upon monthly data (with different time spans depending upon availability of data, from January 2000 to January 2003 until December 2017, i.e., October 2018), the following countries were in focus: Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovenia and Slovakia. Results from dynamic rolling spillover indices indicate mixed results for all of the countries throughout the sample. Dynamic results enable policymakers from individual countries to focus on specifics of their economies to develop even better policies in order to achieve best possible results regarding the tourism growth and related economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Tihana Škrinjarić, 2019. "Examining the Causal Relationship between Tourism and Economic Growth: Spillover Index Approach for Selected CEE and SEE Countries," Economies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(1), pages 1-19, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:7:y:2019:i:1:p:19-:d:213304
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dumitrescu, Elena-Ivona & Hurlin, Christophe, 2012. "Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1450-1460.
    2. Andrew Phiri, 2016. "Tourism and Economic Growth in South Africa: Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear Cointegration Frameworks," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 14(1 (Spring), pages 31-53.
    3. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    4. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Dragouni, Mina & Filis, George, 2013. "Time-Varying Interdependencies of Tourism and Economic Growth: Evidence from European Countries," MPRA Paper 48715, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Sergej Gricar & Stefan Bojnec & Vesna Karadzic & Svetlana Rakocevic, 2016. "Comparative Analysis of Tourism-Led Growth in Slovenia and Montenegro," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 14(1 (Spring), pages 75-92.
    6. Urbina, Jilber, 2013. "Financial Spillovers Across Countries: Measuring shock transmissions," MPRA Paper 75756, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    tourism and economic growth; spillover index; tourism-led growth hypothesis; growth-led tourism hypothesis;

    JEL classification:

    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
    • F - International Economics
    • I - Health, Education, and Welfare
    • J - Labor and Demographic Economics
    • O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth
    • Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics

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