Return and volatility spillovers in three euro exchange rates
This paper analyses the nature and extent of interdependence, and return and volatility spillovers, in three euro exchange rates, namely the US dollar, Japanese yen and British pound sterling. Using the realised variance method in order to avoid pitfalls inherent in the GARCH methodology, we consider such effects at several time horizons over the trading day. Substantial evidence is reported of contemporaneous relationships between returns on these rates, and their volatility, with some further market-specific spillovers between returns and volatility. Variance decompositions from an estimated VAR suggest that the dollar rate dominates the other two rates in terms of both return and volatility spillovers. That is, innovations to the sterling and yen rates have, at best, a marginal effect on the dollar whilst, in contrast, news affecting the dollar can account for as much as 30% of the movement in sterling and yen returns and volatility. Further, using the recently introduced spillovers index, which is derived from the variance decomposition and examines the degree of cross-market spillover error variance relative to total variance, our results show that the extent of spillovers within these series increases with temporal aggregation from the 10-min to half-day frequency, but remains constant thereafter.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
- Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999.
"No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements,"
NBER Working Papers
7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2008.
"Measuring financial asset return and volatilty spillovers, with application to global equity markets,"
CFS Working Paper Series
2008/26, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- FrancisX. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, 01.
- Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2007. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, With Application to Global Equity Markets," PIER Working Paper Archive 07-002, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2008. "Measuring financial asset return and volatility spillovers, with application to global equity markets," Working Papers 08-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2008. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, With Application to Global Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 13811, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yılmaz, 2007. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, With Application to Global Equity Markets," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 0705, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2007. "Measuring financial asset return and volatility spillovers, with application to global equity markets," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/02, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- J. D. Byers & D. A. Peel, 1995. "Bilinear quadratic ARCH and volatility spillovers in inter-war exchange rates," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(7), pages 215-219.
- BAUWENS, Luc & LAURENT, Sébastien & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen VK, .
"Multivariate GARCH models: a survey,"
CORE Discussion Papers RP
1847, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Speight, Alan E. H. & McMillan, David G., 2001. "Volatility spillovers in East European black-market exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 367-378, June.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ng, Lilian K., 1996. "A causality-in-variance test and its application to financial market prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 33-48.
- Baillie, R. & Bollerslev, T. & Redfearn, M.R., 1991.
"Bear squeezes, volatility spillovers and speculative attacks in the hyperinflation 1920s foreign exchange,"
1991-52, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Redfearn, Michael R., 1993. "Bear squeezes, volatility spillovers and speculative attacks in the hyperinflation 1920s foreign exchange," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 511-521, October.
- Miyakoshi, Tatsuyoshi, 2003. "Spillovers of stock return volatility to Asian equity markets from Japan and the US," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 383-399, October.
- Richard T. Baillie & Tim Bollerslev, 1991. "Intra-Day and Inter-Market Volatility in Foreign Exchange Rates," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 565-585.
- Ng, Angela, 2000. "Volatility spillover effects from Japan and the US to the Pacific-Basin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 207-233, April.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Domowitz, Ian, 1993. " Trading Patterns and Prices in the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1421-43, September.
- Andersen T. G & Bollerslev T. & Diebold F. X & Labys P., 2001. "The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 42-55, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:62:y::i:2:p:79-93. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.