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Return and volatility spillovers in three euro exchange rates

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  • McMillan, David G.
  • Speight, Alan E.H.

Abstract

This paper analyses the nature and extent of interdependence, and return and volatility spillovers, in three euro exchange rates, namely the US dollar, Japanese yen and British pound sterling. Using the realised variance method in order to avoid pitfalls inherent in the GARCH methodology, we consider such effects at several time horizons over the trading day. Substantial evidence is reported of contemporaneous relationships between returns on these rates, and their volatility, with some further market-specific spillovers between returns and volatility. Variance decompositions from an estimated VAR suggest that the dollar rate dominates the other two rates in terms of both return and volatility spillovers. That is, innovations to the sterling and yen rates have, at best, a marginal effect on the dollar whilst, in contrast, news affecting the dollar can account for as much as 30% of the movement in sterling and yen returns and volatility. Further, using the recently introduced spillovers index, which is derived from the variance decomposition and examines the degree of cross-market spillover error variance relative to total variance, our results show that the extent of spillovers within these series increases with temporal aggregation from the 10-min to half-day frequency, but remains constant thereafter.

Suggested Citation

  • McMillan, David G. & Speight, Alan E.H., 2010. "Return and volatility spillovers in three euro exchange rates," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 79-93, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:62:y::i:2:p:79-93
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Manish Kumar, 2011. "Return and volatility spillovers: evidence from Indian exchange rates," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 3(4), pages 371-387.
    2. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Breitenlechner, Max & Scharler, Johann, 2015. "Business cycle and financial cycle spillovers in the G7 countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 154-162.
    3. Antonakakis, N. & Badinger, H., 2016. "Economic growth, volatility, and cross-country spillovers: New evidence for the G7 countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 352-365.
    4. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Max Breitenlechner & Johann Scharler, 2014. "How Strongly are Business Cycles and Financial Cycles Linked in the G7 Countries?," Working Papers 2014-07, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
    5. Baruník, Jozef & Kočenda, Evžen & Vácha, Lukáš, 2016. "Asymmetric connectedness on the U.S. stock market: Bad and good volatility spillovers," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 55-78.
    6. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George, 2017. "Oil shocks and stock markets: Dynamic connectedness under the prism of recent geopolitical and economic unrest," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-26.
    7. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Dragouni, Mina & Filis, George, 2015. "How strong is the linkage between tourism and economic growth in Europe?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 142-155.
    8. repec:eee:riibaf:v:41:y:2017:i:c:p:28-36 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Awartani, Basel & Aktham, Maghyereh & Cherif, Guermat, 2016. "The connectedness between crude oil and financial markets: Evidence from implied volatility indices," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 56-69.
    10. Sachapon Tungsong & Fabio Caccioli & Tomaso Aste, 2017. "Relation between regional uncertainty spillovers in the global banking system," Papers 1702.05944, arXiv.org.
    11. repec:eee:jimfin:v:77:y:2017:i:c:p:39-56 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Antonakakis, Nikolaos, 2012. "Exchange return co-movements and volatility spillovers before and after the introduction of euro," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 1091-1109.
    13. Baruník, Jozef & Kočenda, Evžen & Vácha, Lukáš, 2017. "Asymmetric volatility connectedness on the forex market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 39-56.
    14. Afees A. Salisu & Taofeek O. Ayinde, 2018. "Testing for spillovers in Naira exchange rates: The role of electioneering& global financial crisis," Working Papers 050, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    15. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2015. "Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness: A Network Approach to Measurement and Monitoring," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199338306.
    16. Maghyereh, Aktham I. & Awartani, Basel & Hilu, Khalil Al, 2015. "Dynamic transmissions between the U.S. and equity markets in the MENA countries: New evidence from pre- and post-global financial crisis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 123-138.
    17. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Gabauer, David, 2017. "Refined Measures of Dynamic Connectedness based on TVP-VAR," MPRA Paper 78282, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. N. Antonakakis & H. Badinger, 2014. "International business cycle spillovers since the 1870s," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(30), pages 3682-3694, October.
    19. Chun-Chieh Huang, 2015. "Evaluation in Dynamic Process Spillover Effect: Eleven Major Exchange Rate Markets," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(7), pages 941-946, July.
    20. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & George Filis, 2016. "Business Cycle Spillovers in the European Union: What is the Message Transmitted to the Core?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 84(4), pages 437-481, July.
    21. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Dragouni, Mina & Filis, George, 2013. "Time-Varying Interdependencies of Tourism and Economic Growth: Evidence from European Countries," MPRA Paper 48715, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. repec:eee:riibaf:v:41:y:2017:i:c:p:577-589 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Maghyereh, Aktham I. & Awartani, Basel & Bouri, Elie, 2016. "The directional volatility connectedness between crude oil and equity markets: New evidence from implied volatility indexes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 78-93.
    24. repec:eee:eneeco:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:108-115 is not listed on IDEAS

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