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Economic returns of family planning and fertility decline in India, 1991–2061

Author

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  • Srinivas GOLI

    (University of Western Australia, Australia India Institute)

  • K. S. JAMES

    (International Institute for Population Science)

  • Devender SINGH

    (National Program Officer)

  • Venkatesh SRINIVASAN

    (United Nation Population Fund)

  • Rakesh MISHRA

    (National Institute of Urban Affairs)

Abstract

Investment in family planning (FP) provides returns through a lifetime. Global evidence shows that FP is the second-best buy in terms of return on investment after liberalizing trade. In this study, we estimate the cumulative benefits of FP investments for India from 1991 to 2016 and project them up to 2061 with four scenarios of fertility levels. The findings suggest that India will have greater elasticity of FP investments to lifetime economic returns compared to the world average (cost–revenue ratio of 1:120). We have taken four scenarios for the goalpost, viz., 2.1, 1.8, 1.6, and 1.4. Although different scenarios of total fertility rate (TFR) levels at the goalpost (i.e., the year 2061) offer varied lifetime returns from FP, scenario TFR

Suggested Citation

  • Srinivas GOLI & K. S. JAMES & Devender SINGH & Venkatesh SRINIVASAN & Rakesh MISHRA, 2023. "Economic returns of family planning and fertility decline in India, 1991–2061," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 89(1), pages 29-61, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvde:v:89:y:2023:i:1:p:29-61
    DOI: 10.1017/dem.2021.3
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    Cited by:

    1. Ali Sohail & Babar Nawaz Abbasi & Mohammed Khalifa Abdelsalam & Waeibrorheem Waemustafa, 2025. "Fertility Reduction on Population Trends, Living Standards, Capital Investment, and Economic Growth in China: A Quantile ARDL Approach," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 16(3), pages 12883-12916, September.
    2. Biswajit Maitra & Dhritiman Ganguli, 2025. "Impact of fertility decline, gender, and social development on economic growth in India," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 27(2), pages 450-471, August.
    3. Neha Jain & Srinivas Goli & Arjun Jana, 2025. "Population age structural transition, demographic dividend and economic growth in India," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, December.

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