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An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Fertility for China, 1952-2000

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  • Paresh Kumar Narayan
  • Xiujian Peng

Abstract

This study investigates the determinants of the fertility rate in China over the 1952-2000 period. Consistent with theory, the key explanatory variables in our fertility model are real per capita income, infant mortality rate, female illiteracy and female labour force participation rates. The long-run results and the test for cointegration are based on the Johansen (1988) and Johansen & Juselius (1990) approach. Our long-run results conform to theory in that all variables appear with their expected signs, and the dummy variable used to capture the effects of the family planning policy indicates that in the years of the policy, fertility rates have been falling by around 10-12%. Our results suggest that socio-economic development - consistent with the traditional structural hypothesis - played a key role in China's fertility transition.

Suggested Citation

  • Paresh Kumar Narayan & Xiujian Peng, 2006. "An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Fertility for China, 1952-2000," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 165-183.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jocebs:v:4:y:2006:i:2:p:165-183
    DOI: 10.1080/14765280600737039
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    Cited by:

    1. Vinod Mishra & Ingrid Nielsen & Russell Smyth, 2010. "On the relationship between female labour force participation and fertility in G7 countries: evidence from panel cointegration and Granger causality," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 361-372, April.
    2. Cheng, Hua & Ma, Yuanyuan & Qi, Shusen & Xu, Lixin Colin, 2021. "Enforcing government policies: The role of state-owned enterprise in China’s one child policy," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    3. Chor Foon Tang & Nai-Peng Tey, 2017. "Low fertility in Malaysia: Can it be explained?," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 101-118, June.
    4. Thirunaukarasu Subramaniam & Nanthakumar Loganathan & Erez Yerushalmi & Evelyn Shyamala Devadason & Mazlan Majid, 2018. "Determinants of Infant Mortality in Older ASEAN Economies," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 136(1), pages 397-415, February.
    5. Jesús J. Sánchez-Barricarte, 2017. "The long-term determinants of marital fertility in the developed world (19th and 20th centuries): The role of welfare policies," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(42), pages 1255-1298.
    6. Thirunaukarasu Subramaniam & Nanthakumar Loganathan & Evelyn S. Devadason, 2018. "Determinants Of Female Fertility In Asean-5: Empirical Evidence From Bounds Cointegration Test," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 63(03), pages 593-618, June.
    7. Ghosh, Sudeshna, 2017. "South Asian Countries : Economic Growth and Fertility," MPRA Paper 99891, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Yu-Hu LIN & Wen-Yi CHEN, 2018. "On the Relationship between Business Cycle and Fertility Rate in Taiwan: Evidence from the Nonlinear Cointegration Methodology," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 140-156, December.
    9. Di Giorgio, Laura & Filippini, Massimo & Masiero, Giuliano, 2014. "Implications of global budget payment system on nursing home costs," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 237-248.
    10. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2006. "Determinants of Female Fertility in Taiwan, 1966–2001: Empirical Evidence from Cointegration and Variance Decomposition Analysis," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 393-407, December.
    11. Wang, Fei, 2012. "Family Planning Policy in China: Measurement and Impact on Fertility," MPRA Paper 42226, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Chen, Yi & Huang, Yingfei, 2018. "The Power of the Government: China's Family Planning Leading. Group and the Fertility Decline since 1970," GLO Discussion Paper Series 204, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    13. Awad Atif & Yussof Ishak, 2017. "Factors Affecting Fertility – New Evidence from Malaysia," Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series, Sciendo, vol. 36(36), pages 7-20, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    JEL Classifications: J13; C22; C52;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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