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An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Fertility for China, 1952-2000

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  • Paresh Kumar Narayan
  • Xiujian Peng

Abstract

This study investigates the determinants of the fertility rate in China over the 1952-2000 period. Consistent with theory, the key explanatory variables in our fertility model are real per capita income, infant mortality rate, female illiteracy and female labour force participation rates. The long-run results and the test for cointegration are based on the Johansen (1988) and Johansen & Juselius (1990) approach. Our long-run results conform to theory in that all variables appear with their expected signs, and the dummy variable used to capture the effects of the family planning policy indicates that in the years of the policy, fertility rates have been falling by around 10-12%. Our results suggest that socio-economic development - consistent with the traditional structural hypothesis - played a key role in China's fertility transition.

Suggested Citation

  • Paresh Kumar Narayan & Xiujian Peng, 2006. "An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Fertility for China, 1952-2000," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 165-183.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:jocebs:v:4:y:2006:i:2:p:165-183 DOI: 10.1080/14765280600737039
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Vinod Mishra & Ingrid Nielsen & Russell Smyth, 2006. "The Relationship Between Female Labour Force Participation And Fertility In G7 Countries: Evidence From Panel Cointegration And Granger Causality," Monash Economics Working Papers 13/06, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    2. repec:dem:demres:v:36:y:2017:i:42 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Di Giorgio, Laura & Filippini, Massimo & Masiero, Giuliano, 2014. "Implications of global budget payment system on nursing home costs," Health Policy, Elsevier, pages 237-248.
    4. Wang, Fei, 2012. "Family Planning Policy in China: Measurement and Impact on Fertility," MPRA Paper 42226, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    JEL Classifications: J13; C22; C52;

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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