The fortunes of one's birth: Relative cohort size and the youth labor market in the United States
Using two different measures of relative cohort size - one indicating the size and placement of an individual's own birth cohort, and the other, the ratio of young to prime age adults in the United States in that year - it has been possible to isolate strong effects of the population age structure on wages in the United States over the past thirty-three years. These effects have been strong enough that virtually all of the observed change in the experience premium, and a substantial proportion of the changes in the college wage premium, can be explained by the relative cohort size variables alone. Even changes in the amount of within-group variance in wages appear to be largely a function of changing age structure, and absolute wage levels have been strongly affected by these demographic changes, suggesting that population growth can have positive effects on the economy.
Volume (Year): 12 (1999)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Note:||Received: 27 January 1998/Accepted: 6 June 1998 received from the people at the Maxwell Center, financial support through an NIA Fellowship, and Richard Easterlin's inspiration and support - and thanks Lee Lillard for providing her first opportunity to work with the CPS on `youth labor markets'. More detailed information on the work presented here - including results for African Americans and for those not working full time, as well as for other experience groups - are available in Macunovich, 1998. Responsible editor: Klaus F. Zimmermann-->|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.springer.com|
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.springer.com/economics/population/journal/148/PS2|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mark C. Berger, 1984. "Cohort Size and the Earnings Growth of Young Workers," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 37(4), pages 582-591, July.
- Kevin Murphy & Mark Plant & Finis Welch, 1984. "Cohort Size and Earnings," UCLA Economics Working Papers 352, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Lazear, Edward P. & Michael, Robert T., 1988. "Allocation of Income within the Household," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226469669.
- Richard B. Freeman, 1979.
"The Effect of Demographic Factors on Age-Earnings Profiles,"
NBER Working Papers
0316, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Richard B. Freeman, 1979. "The Effect of Demographic Factors on Age-Earnings Profiles," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 14(3), pages 289-318.
- Mark Berger, 1989. "Demographic Cycles, Cohort Size, and Earnings," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 26(2), pages 311-321, May.
- Sanders Korenman & David Neumark, 2000.
"Cohort Crowding and Youth Labor Markets (A Cross-National Analysis),"
in: Youth Employment and Joblessness in Advanced Countries, pages 57-106
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sanders Korenman & David Neumark, 1997. "Cohort Crowding and Youth Labor Markets: A Cross-National Analysis," NBER Working Papers 6031, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Deaton, Angus, 1985. "Panel data from time series of cross-sections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1-2), pages 109-126.
- Ray C. Fair & Kathryn M. Dominguez, 1987.
"Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations,"
NBER Working Papers
2280, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fair, Ray C & Dominguez, Kathryn M, 1991. "Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1276-94, December.
- Ray C. Fair & Kathryn M. Dominguez, 1987. "Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 839, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989.
"The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market,"
Regional Science and Urban Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & David N. Weil, 1988. "The Baby Boom, The Baby Bust, and the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 2794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Leff, Nathaniel H, 1969. "Dependency Rates and Savings Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(5), pages 886-96, December.
- Deaton, Angus S & Ruiz-Castillo, Javier & Thomas, Duncan, 1989. "The Influence of Household Composition on Household Expenditure Patterns: Theory and Spanish Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(1), pages 179-200, February.
- Simon Kuznets & Elizabeth Jenks, 1961. "Capital in the American Economy: Its Formation and Financing," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kuzn61-1, February.
- Barnes, Roberta & Gillingham, Robert, 1984. "Demographic Effects in Demand Analysis: Estimation of the Quadratic Expenditure System Using Microdata," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(4), pages 591-601, November.
- Levy, Frank & Murnane, Richard J, 1992. "U.S. Earnings Levels and Earnings Inequality: A Review of Recent Trends and Proposed Explanations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(3), pages 1333-81, September.
- Card, David & Lemieux, Thomas, 1996.
"Wage dispersion, returns to skill, and black-white wage differentials,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 319-361, October.
- David Card & Thomas Lemieux, 1993. "Wage Dispersion, Returns to Skill, and Black-White Wage Differentials," NBER Working Papers 4365, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- McMillan, Henry M. & Baesel, Jerome B., 1990. "The macroeconomic impact of the baby boom generation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 167-195.
- August Löosch, 1937. "Population Cycles as a Cause of Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(4), pages 649-662.
- Macunovich, D.J., 1996. "Relative Income and Price of Time: Exploring their effcts on U.S. Fertility and Female Labor Force Participation, 1963-1993," Department of Economics Working Papers 174, Department of Economics, Williams College.
- Jacob Mincer, 1991. "Human Capital, Technology, and the Wage Structure: What Do Time Series Show?," NBER Working Papers 3581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ray C. Fair & Diane J. Macunovich, 1996. "Explaining the Labor Force Participation of Women 20-24," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1116, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Kelley, Allen C., 1969. "Demographic Cycles and Economic Growth: The Long Swing Reconsidered," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(04), pages 633-656, December.
- Browning, Martin & Deaton, Angus & Irish, Margaret, 1985. "A Profitable Approach to Labor Supply and Commodity Demands over the Life-Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(3), pages 503-43, May.
- Welch, Finis, 1979. "Effects of Cohort Size on Earnings: The Baby Boom Babies' Financial Bust," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages S65-97, October.
- Kevin M. Murphy & Finis Welch, 1992. "The Structure of Wages," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(1), pages 285-326.
- Moulton, Brent R., 1986. "Random group effects and the precision of regression estimates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 385-397, August.
- Pollak, Robert A & Wales, Terence J, 1981. "Demographic Variables in Demand Analysis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1533-51, November.
- Finis Welch, 1979. "Effects of Cohort Size on Earnings: The Baby Boom Babies' Financial Bust," UCLA Economics Working Papers 146, UCLA Department of Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:12:y:1999:i:2:p:215-272. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)or (Rebekah McClure)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.