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Human Capital, Technology, and the Wage Structure: What Do Time Series Show?

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  • Jacob Mincer

Abstract

The major purpose of this study was to detect effects of technologically based changes in demand for human capital on the educational and experience wage structure in annual CPS data, 1963 to 1987. Major findings are: 1. Year-to-year educational wage differentials are quite closely tracked by relative supplies of young graduates, and by indexes of relative demand, such as research and development (R & D) expenditures per worker, and ratios of service to goods employment. Of these, R and D indexes account for most of the explanatory power. Indexes of (Jorgenson type) productivity growth and of international competition are significant as alternatives, but show weaker explanatory power. 2. The observed steepening of experience profiles of wages is explained, in part, by changes in relative demographic supplies (cohort effects), and in part by the growing profitability of human capital which extends to that acquired on the job. Evidence appears in the significance of profitability variables or in demand factors underlying them, given the relative demographic supplies in the wage profile equations.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacob Mincer, 1991. "Human Capital, Technology, and the Wage Structure: What Do Time Series Show?," NBER Working Papers 3581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3581
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Schooling, Experience, and Earnings," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number minc74-1.
    2. Welch, Finis, 1979. "Effects of Cohort Size on Earnings: The Baby Boom Babies' Financial Bust," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 65-97, October.
    3. McKinley L. Blackburn & David E. Bloom & Richard B. Freeman, 1989. "The Declining Economic Position of Less-Skilled American Males," NBER Working Papers 3186, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jacob Mincer, 1989. "Job Training: Costs, Returns, and Wage Profiles," NBER Working Papers 3208, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Schooling and Earnings," NBER Chapters, in: Schooling, Experience, and Earnings, pages 41-63, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Jacob Mincer, 1989. "Human Capital Responses to Technological Change in the Labor Market," NBER Working Papers 3207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Griliches, Zvi, 1969. "Capital-Skill Complementarity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(4), pages 465-468, November.
    8. Bartel, Ann P & Lichtenberg, Frank R, 1987. "The Comparative Advantage of Educated Workers in Implementing New Technology," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(1), pages 1-11, February.
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