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The Worsening of Wage Expectations in Italy: a Study Based on Administrative data

  • Elena Giarda

This paper builds on existing studies on the relationship between individual wages, age and experience, and provides new evidence on the determinants of wages in Italy. Using a large panel of individual administrative data, it shows that wage to age profiles for different cohorts of workers are not stable over time: although younger generations of Italian workers are benefiting from higher starting wages than older generations, they face the prospect of lower growth of future earnings. It also confirms the existence of a significant supply effect: the bigger the cohort relative to the active population, the smaller the cohort’s gain in terms of wage levels. Finally, it captures the dependence of individual wages on aggregate labour market conditions: individual wages are shown to be negatively related to the rate of unemployment and positively related to the union wage index.

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File URL: http://www.laboratoriorevelli.it/_pdf/wp57.pdf
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Paper provided by LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies in its series LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series with number 57.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cca:wplabo:57
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  12. Devicenti francesco & Maida Agata & Pacelli Lia, 2005. "The Resurrection of the Italian Wage Curve," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 200502, University of Turin.
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  14. Jacob Mincer, 1958. "Investment in Human Capital and Personal Income Distribution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 281.
  15. Paul Beaudry & David Green, 1997. "Cohort Patterns in Canadian Earnings: Assessing the Role of Skill Premia in Inequality Trends," NBER Working Papers 6132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Cappellari, Lorenzo, 2000. "The Covariance Structure of Italian Male Wages," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(6), pages 659-84, December.
  17. Fertig, Michael & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2003. "Gerontocracy in Motion? European Cross-Country Evidence on the Labor Market Consequences of Population Ageing," IZA Discussion Papers 956, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  18. Baltagi, Badi H. & Blien, Uwe, 1998. "The German wage curve: evidence from the IAB employment sample," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 135-142, November.
  19. David Card & Thomas Lemieux, 2001. "Can Falling Supply Explain The Rising Return To College For Younger Men? A Cohort-Based Analysis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(2), pages 705-746, May.
  20. John B. Burbidge & Lonnie Magee & A. Leslie Robb, 1997. "Cohort, Year and Age Effects in Canadian Wage Data," Independence and Economic Security of the Older Population Research Papers 19, McMaster University.
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