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Cohort Size and Youth Earnings: Evidence from a Quasi-Experiment

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  • Morin, Louis-Philippe

Abstract

In this paper, I use data from the Canadian Labour Force Surveys (LFS), and the 2001 and 2006 Canadian Censuses to estimate the impact of an important labor supply shock on the earnings of young high-school graduates. The abolition of Ontario’s Grade 13 generated a ‘double’ cohort of high-school graduates that simultaneously entered the Ontario labor market, generating a large and sudden increase in the labor supply. This provides a rare occasion to measure the impact of cohort size on earnings without the supply shock being possibly confounded with unobserved trends—a recurring problem in the literature. The Census findings suggest that the effect of the supply shock is statistically and economically important, depressing weekly earnings by 5 to 9 percent. The findings from Census are supported by the LFS results which suggest that the immediate impact of the supply shock—measured about six months after high-school graduation—is also important.

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  • Morin, Louis-Philippe, 2011. "Cohort Size and Youth Earnings: Evidence from a Quasi-Experiment," CLSSRN working papers clsrn_admin-2011-28, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 28 Nov 2011.
  • Handle: RePEc:ubc:clssrn:clsrn_admin-2011-28
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    2. Stephan L. Thomsen, 2015. "The impacts of shortening secondary school duration," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 166-166, July.
    3. Huebener, Mathias & Marcus, Jan, 2017. "Compressing instruction time into fewer years of schooling and the impact on student performance," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-14.
    4. Newhouse, David & Wolff, Claudia, 2014. "Cohort Size and Youth Employment Outcomes," IZA Discussion Papers 8197, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Clémentine Garrouste & Mathilde Godard, 2015. "The Lasting Health Impact of Leaving School in a Bad Economy: Britons in the 1970s Recession," Working Papers halshs-01521916, HAL.
    6. Dorner, Matthias & Görlitz, Katja, 2020. "Training, Wages and a Missing School Graduation Cohort," IZA Discussion Papers 13490, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Alex Bryson, 2014. "All-Star or Benchwarmer? Relative Age, Cohort Size and Career Success in the NHL," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 441, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    8. Clementine Garrouste & Mathilde Godard, 2016. "The Lasting Health Impact of Leaving School in a Bad Economy: Britons in the 1970s Recession," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(S2), pages 70-92, November.
    9. Dorner, Matthias & Görlitz, Katja, 2020. "Training, wages and a missing school graduation cohort," Ruhr Economic Papers 858, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    10. Mario Reinhold & Stephan Thomsen, 2017. "The changing situation of labor market entrants in Germany [Die veränderliche Situation für Berufseinsteiger in Deutschland]," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 50(1), pages 161-174, August.
    11. Peters, Cornelius, 2015. "Do age complementarities affect labour productivity? Evidence from German firm level data," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112941, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. David Neumark & Maysen Yen, 2020. "Relative Sizes of Age Cohorts and Labor Force Participation of Older Workers," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(1), pages 1-31, February.
    13. Clémentine Garrouste & Mathilde Godard, 2016. "The lasting health impact of leaving school in a bad economy : Britons in the 1970s recession," Post-Print hal-01408637, HAL.
    14. Yan Lau, 2019. "The dragon cohort of Hong Kong: traditional beliefs, demographics, and education," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(1), pages 219-246, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labor Supply Shock; Youth;

    JEL classification:

    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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