The worsening of wage expectations in Italy: a study based on administrative data
Purpose - This paper aims to build on existing studies on the relationship between individual wages, age and experience, and provide new evidence on the determinants of wages in Italy. Design/methodology/approach - Wage-age profiles, which include cohort variables to capture generational differences in wages and are characterised by a changing-over-time structure, are estimated by fixed and random effects panel regressions. The analysis exploits a longitudinal dataset of administrative data on wages for the period 1985-1999. Findings - This paper shows that wage to age profiles for different cohorts of workers are not stable over time: although younger generations of Italian workers are benefiting from higher starting wages than older generations, they face the prospect of lower growth of future earnings. It also confirms the existence of a significant supply effect: the bigger the cohort relative to the active population, the smaller the cohort's gain in terms of wage levels. Finally, it captures the dependence of individual wages on aggregate labour market conditions: individual wages are shown to be negatively related to the unemployment rate and positively related to the union wage index. Research limitations/implications - Although the paper does not propose a novel theoretical approach to individual wage analysis, it demonstrates the benefits of a more integrated empirical analysis of individual wages. Practical implications - The empirical findings suggest that it would be possible and useful to integrate the changing age profiles of individual wages with the estimation and projections of Italian aggregate industry and service sector average wages. Originality/value - The paper provides new evidence on the determinants of the dynamics of individual wages through the estimation of time-varying wage to age profiles of workers in the Italian industry and service sectors.
Volume (Year): 29 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.emeraldinsight.com|
|Order Information:|| Postal: Emerald Group Publishing, Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley, BD16 1WA, UK|
Web: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/ijm.htm Email:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- David Card & Thomas Lemieux, 2001.
"Can Falling Supply Explain the Rising Return to College for Younger Men? A Cohort-Based Analysis,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 116(2), pages 705-746.
- David Card & Thomas Lemieux, 2000. "Can Falling Supply Explain the Rising Return to College for Younger Men? A Cohort-Based Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7655, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stapleton, David C & Young, Douglas J, 1988. "Educational Attainment and Cohort Size," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(3), pages 330-361, July.
- Devicienti, Francesco & Maida, Agata & Pacelli, Lia, 2008. "The resurrection of the Italian wage curve," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 335-341, March.
- Devicenti francesco & Maida Agata & Pacelli Lia, 2005. "The Resurrection of the Italian Wage Curve," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 200502, University of Turin.
- Francesco Devicienti & Agata Maida & Lia Pacelli, 2006. "The Resurrection of the Italian Wage Curve," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 52, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
- Brunello, Giorgio & Comi, Simona & Lucifora, Claudio, 2000. "The College Wage Gap in 10 European Countries: Evidence from Two Cohorts," IZA Discussion Papers 228, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- David Card, 1995. "The Wage Curve: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 285-299, June.
- David Card, 1995. "The Wage Curve: A Review," Working Papers 722, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
- Brunello, Giorgio & Lauer, Charlotte, 2004. "Are Wages in Southern Europe More Flexible? The Effects of Cohort Size on European Earnings," IZA Discussion Papers 1299, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Brunello, Giorgio & Lauer, Charlotte, 2005. "Are Wages in Southern Europe more Flexible? The Effects of a Cohort Size on European Earnings," ZEW Discussion Papers 05-45, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Paul Beaudry & David A. Green, 2000. "Cohort patterns in Canadian earnings: assessing the role of skill premia in inequality trends," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 33(4), pages 907-936, November.
- Paul Beaudry & David Green, 1997. "Cohort Patterns in Canadian Earnings: Assessing the Role of Skill Premia in Inequality Trends," NBER Working Papers 6132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Brunello, Giorgio & Comi, Simona, 2004. "Education and earnings growth: evidence from 11 European countries," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 75-83, February.
- Brunello, Giorgio & Comi, Simona, 2000. "Education and Earnings Growth: Evidence from 11 European Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 140, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Moulton, Brent R., 1986. "Random group effects and the precision of regression estimates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 385-397, August.
- J.B. Burbidge & L. Magee & A.L. Robb, "undated". "Cohort, Year and Age Effects in Canadian Wage Data," Canadian International Labour Network Working Papers 13, McMaster University.
- John B. Burbidge & Lonnie Magee & A. Leslie Robb, 1997. "Cohort, Year and Age Effects in Canadian Wage Data," Independence and Economic Security of the Older Population Research Papers 19, McMaster University.
- George Psacharopoulos & Richard Layard, 1979. "Human Capital and Earnings: British Evidence and a Critique," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 46(3), pages 485-503.
- Finis Welch, 1979. "Effects of Cohort Size on Earnings: The Baby Boom Babies' Financial Bust," UCLA Economics Working Papers 146, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
- Heckman, James J, 1979. "Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 153-161, January.
- Fertig, Michael & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2003. "Gerontocracy in Motion? - European Cross-Country Evidence on the Labor Market Consequences of Population Ageing," RWI Discussion Papers 8, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
- Fertig, Michael & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2003. "Gerontocracy in Motion? European Cross-Country Evidence on the Labor Market Consequences of Population Ageing," IZA Discussion Papers 956, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Creedy, J & Hart, P E, 1979. "Age and the Distribution of Earnings," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 89(354), pages 280-293, June.
- Jacob Mincer, 1958. "Investment in Human Capital and Personal Income Distribution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 281-281.
- Agar Brugiavini & Franco Peracchi, 2003. "Social Security Wealth and Retirement Decisions in Italy," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 17(SpecialIs), pages 79-114, 08.
- Cappellari, Lorenzo, 2000. "The Covariance Structure of Italian Male Wages," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(6), pages 659-684, December.
- Bell, Brian & Nickell, Stephen & Quintini, Glenda, 2002. "Wage equations, wage curves and all that," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 341-360, July.
- B Bell & Stephen Nickell & Glenda Quintini, 2000. "Wage Equations, Wage Curves and All That," CEP Discussion Papers dp0472, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Brian Bell & Stephen Nickell & Glenda Quintini, 2000. "Wage equations, wage curves and all that," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20165, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Sanders Korenman & David Neumark, 2000. "Cohort Crowding and Youth Labor Markets (A Cross-National Analysis)," NBER Chapters,in: Youth Employment and Joblessness in Advanced Countries, pages 57-106 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sanders Korenman & David Neumark, 1997. "Cohort Crowding and Youth Labor Markets: A Cross-National Analysis," NBER Working Papers 6031, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Baltagi, Badi H. & Blien, Uwe, 1998. "The German wage curve: evidence from the IAB employment sample," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 135-142, November. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)