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Cohort size and youth labour-market outcomes: the role of measurement error

Author

Listed:
  • John Moffat

    (Durham University)

  • Duncan Roth

    (institute for Employment Research (IAB))

Abstract

Using data from 49 European regions covering 2005-2012, this paper finds that the estimated effect of cohort size on employment and unemployment outcomes is very sensitive to the age range of the sample. We argue that this is because the identification strategy commonly used in this literature is unable to eliminate the bias caused by measurement error in the cohort-size variable. The latter arises because large shares of the young choose to acquire education and consequently the size of an age group provides a poor measure of age-specific labour supply. In our view older age groups provide a more suitable sample to test the implications of cohort crowding since the former will have largely entered the labour market. Using a sample aged 25-29, which has relatively low rates of participation in education, we find robust evidence that an increase in cohort size increases employment and reduces unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • John Moffat & Duncan Roth, 2014. "Cohort size and youth labour-market outcomes: the role of measurement error," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201440, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  • Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:201440
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cohort size; cohort crowding; unemployment; employment; measurement error; EU-SILC;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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