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Demographic ageing and the polarization of regions—an exploratory space–time analysis

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  • Terry Gregory
  • Roberto Patuelli

Abstract

Abstract Demographic ageing is expected to affect labour markets in very different ways on a regional scale. Contributing to this debate, we explore the spatiotemporal patterns of recent distributional changes in the worker age structure and innovation output for German regions by conducting an exploratory space–time data analysis. Besides commonly used tools, we apply newly developed approaches which allow the investigation of joint dynamics of the spatial distributions. Overall, we find that innovation hubs tend to be located in areas with high skill concentrations, but also seem to coincide with favourable demographic age structures. We show that these concentrations are persistent over time due to clusterwise path dependence and spatial contagion forces. The spatiotemporal patterns speak in favour of a demographic polarization process of German regions where the post-reunification East–West divide is increasingly turning into a rural–urban divide.

Suggested Citation

  • Terry Gregory & Roberto Patuelli, 2015. "Demographic ageing and the polarization of regions—an exploratory space–time analysis," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 47(5), pages 1192-1210, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:47:y:2015:i:5:p:1192-1210
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Roberto Patuelli & Norbert Schanne & Daniel A. Griffith & Peter Nijkamp, 2012. "Persistence Of Regional Unemployment: Application Of A Spatial Filtering Approach To Local Labor Markets In Germany," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(2), pages 300-323, May.
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    6. Arntz, Melanie & Gregory, Terry & Lehmer, Florian, 2011. "Unequal pay or unequal employment? What drives the skill-composition of labor flows in Germany?," ZEW Discussion Papers 11-074, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    7. Diego Puga, 2002. "European regional policies in light of recent location theories," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(4), pages 373-406, October.
    8. Cem Ertur & Wilfried Koch, 2006. "Regional disparities in the European Union and the enlargement process: an exploratory spatial data analysis, 1995–2000," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 40(4), pages 723-765, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Blien Uwe & Möller Joachim & Hong Van Phan thi & Brunow Stephan, 2016. "Long-Lasting Labour Market Consequences of German Unification," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 236(2), pages 181-216, March.
    2. Matthias Piontek & Michael Wyrwich, 2017. "The emergence of entrepreneurial ideas at universities in times of demographic change: evidence from Germany
      [Die Entstehung von Gründungsideen und neuen Unternehmen in Zeiten demografischen Wandel
      ," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 37(1), pages 1-37, February.
    3. Neumann, Uwe & Taruttis, Lisa, 2018. "Sorting in an urban housing market - is there a response to demographic change?," Ruhr Economic Papers 784, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    4. Matthias Wrede, 2015. "Akzeptanz der Förderung gleichwertiger Lebensverhältnisse und Arbeitsbedingungen," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 35(1), pages 103-119, February.
    5. repec:bla:tvecsg:v:109:y:2018:i:3:p:332-349 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Nadia Fiorino & Nicola Pontarollo & Roberto Ricciuti, 2016. "Voter Turnout in European Parliament Elections: A Spatial Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 5910, CESifo Group Munich.
    7. Paula Prenzel & Simona Iammarino, 2018. "Ageing labour: How does demographic change affect regional human capital?," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 1832, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Aug 2018.
    8. Nicola Pontarollo & Carolina Serpieri, 2018. "A composite policy tool to measure territorial resilience capacity," JRC Working Papers JRC111389, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    9. Arntz, Melanie & Gregory, Terry, 2014. "What old stagers could teach us: Examining age complementarities in regional innovation systems," ZEW Discussion Papers 14-050, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    10. John Moffat & Duncan Roth, 2014. "Cohort size and youth labour-market outcomes: the role of measurement error," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201440, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    innovation; demographic ageing; exploratory space–time analysis; regional disparities; spatial polarization;

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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