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Demographic Ageing and the Polarization of Regions – An Exploratory Space-Time Analysis

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Terry Gregory

    ()

    (ZEW Centre for European Economic Research, Germany)

  • Roberto Patuelli

    ()

    (University of Bologna, Italy; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis (RCEA), Italy)

Abstract

Demographic change is expected to affect labour markets in very different ways on a regional scale. The objective of this paper is to explore the spatio-temporal patterns of recent distributional changes in the workers age structure, innovation output and skill composition for German regions by conducting an Exploratory Space-Time Data Analysis (ESTDA). Beside commonly used tools, we apply newly developed approaches which allow investigating the space-time dynamics of the spatial distributions. We include an analysis of the joint distributional dynamics of the patenting variable with the remaining interest variables. Overall, we find strong clustering tendencies for the demographic variables and innovation that constitute a great divide across German regions. The detected clusters partly evolve over time and suggest a demographic polarization trend among regions that may further reinforce the observed innovation divide in the future.

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File URL: http://www.rcfea.org/RePEc/pdf/wp51_13.pdf
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Paper provided by The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis in its series Working Paper Series with number 51_13.

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Date of creation: Aug 2013
Date of revision: Feb 2015
Publication status: Published in Environment and Planning A, 47(5):1192-1210, 2015
Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:51_13
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Keywords: innovation; workforce age structure; exploratory space-time data analysis; regional disparities;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
  • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
  • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
  • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
  • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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  1. Roberto Patuelli & Norbert Schanne & Daniel A. Griffith & Peter Nijkamp, 2012. "Persistence Of Regional Unemployment: Application Of A Spatial Filtering Approach To Local Labor Markets In Germany," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(2), pages 300-323, 05.
  2. Eleonora Patacchini & Patricia Rice, 2007. "Geography and Economic Performance: Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis for Great Britain," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 489-508.
  3. Glaeser, Edward L., 1999. "Learning in Cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 254-277, September.
  4. Jennifer Hunt, 2004. "Are migrants more skilled than non-migrants? Repeat, return, and same-employer migrants," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(4), pages 830-849, November.
  5. Ravi Kanbur & Hillel Rapoport, 2005. "Migration selectivity and the evolution of spatial inequality," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 43-57, January.
  6. Tanja Buch & Silke Hamann & Annekatrin Niebuhr & Anja Rossen, 2014. "What Makes Cities Attractive? The Determinants of Urban Labour Migration in Germany," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 51(9), pages 1960-1978, July.
  7. Arntz, Melanie & Gregory, Terry & Lehmer, Florian, 2011. "Unequal pay or unequal employment? What drives the skill-composition of labor flows in Germany?," ZEW Discussion Papers 11-074, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  8. Diego Puga, 2002. "European regional policies in light of recent location theories," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(4), pages 373-406, October.
  9. María Hierro & Adolfo Maza & José Villaverde, 2013. "A proposal for detecting spatial contagion: Some evidence on the international migration distribution in Spain," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 92(4), pages 811-829, November.
  10. Cem Ertur & Wilfried Koch, 2006. "Regional disparities in the European Union and the enlargement process: an exploratory spatial data analysis, 1995–2000," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 40(4), pages 723-765, December.
  11. Laurent, Thibault & Ruiz-Gazen, Anne & Thomas-Agnan, Christine, 2012. "GeoXp: An R Package for Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 47(i02).
  12. Fazio, Giorgio & Lavecchia, Luciano, 2012. "Social capital formation across space: proximity and trust in European regions," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-30, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  13. Patrick Kline, 2010. "Place Based Policies, Heterogeneity, and Agglomeration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 383-387, May.
  14. Acs, Zoltan J. & Anselin, Luc & Varga, Attila, 2002. "Patents and innovation counts as measures of regional production of new knowledge," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1069-1085, September.
  15. Brunow, Stephan & Hirte, Georg, 2005. "Age Structure and Regional Income Growth," Discussion Papers 1/2005, Technische Universität Dresden, "Friedrich List" Faculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences, Institute of Transport and Economics.
  16. Ugo Fratesi & Massimiliano Riggi, 2004. "Migration and Regional Disparities: the Role of Skill Biased Flows," Urban/Regional 0407004, EconWPA.
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Cited by:

  1. Blien Uwe & Möller Joachim & Hong Van Phan thi & Brunow Stephan, 2016. "Long-Lasting Labour Market Consequences of German Unification," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 236(2), pages 181-216, March.
  2. Matthias Piontek & Michael Wyrwich, 2017. "The emergence of entrepreneurial ideas at universities in times of demographic change: evidence from Germany
    [Die Entstehung von Gründungsideen und neuen Unternehmen in Zeiten demografischen Wandel    ," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 37(1), pages 1-37, February.
  3. Matthias Wrede, 2015. "Akzeptanz der Förderung gleichwertiger Lebensverhältnisse und Arbeitsbedingungen," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 35(1), pages 103-119, February.
  4. Nadia Fiorino & Nicola Pontarollo & Roberto Ricciuti, 2016. "Voter Turnout in European Parliament Elections: A Spatial Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 5910, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Arntz, Melanie & Gregory, Terry, 2014. "What old stagers could teach us: Examining age complementarities in regional innovation systems," ZEW Discussion Papers 14-050, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  6. John Moffat & Duncan Roth, 2014. "Cohort size and youth labour-market outcomes: the role of measurement error," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201440, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

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