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Demographic Ageing and the Polarization of Regions - An Exploratory Space-Time Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Terry Gregory

    () (ZEW Centre for European Economic Research, Germany)

  • Roberto Patuelli

    () (University of Bologna, Italy; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis (RCEA), Italy)

Abstract

Demographic change is expected to affect labour markets in very different ways on a regional scale. The objective of this paper is to explore the spatio-temporal patterns of recent distributional changes in the workers age structure, innovation output and skill composition for German regions by conducting an Exploratory Space-Time Data Analysis (ESTDA). Beside commonly used tools, we apply newly developed approaches which allow investigating the space-time dynamics of the spatial distributions. We include an analysis of the joint distributional dynamics of the patenting variable with the remaining interest variables. Overall, we find strong clustering tendencies for the demographic variables and innovation that constitute a great divide across German regions. The detected clusters partly evolve over time and suggest a demographic polarization trend among regions that may further reinforce the observed innovation divide in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Terry Gregory & Roberto Patuelli, 2013. "Demographic Ageing and the Polarization of Regions - An Exploratory Space-Time Analysis," Working Paper series 51_13, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Feb 2015.
    • Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:51_13
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Roberto Patuelli & Norbert Schanne & Daniel A. Griffith & Peter Nijkamp, 2012. "Persistence Of Regional Unemployment: Application Of A Spatial Filtering Approach To Local Labor Markets In Germany," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(2), pages 300-323, May.
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    7. Arntz, Melanie & Gregory, Terry & Lehmer, Florian, 2011. "Unequal pay or unequal employment? What drives the skill-composition of labor flows in Germany?," ZEW Discussion Papers 11-074, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
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    Cited by:

    1. Blien Uwe & Möller Joachim & Hong Van Phan thi & Brunow Stephan, 2016. "Long-Lasting Labour Market Consequences of German Unification," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 236(2), pages 181-216, March.
    2. Matthias Piontek & Michael Wyrwich, 2017. "The emergence of entrepreneurial ideas at universities in times of demographic change: evidence from Germany
      [Die Entstehung von Gründungsideen und neuen Unternehmen in Zeiten demografischen Wandel      ," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 37(1), pages 1-37, February.
    3. Neumann, Uwe & Taruttis, Lisa, 2018. "Sorting in an urban housing market - is there a response to demographic change?," Ruhr Economic Papers 784, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    4. Matthias Wrede, 2015. "Akzeptanz der Förderung gleichwertiger Lebensverhältnisse und Arbeitsbedingungen," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 35(1), pages 103-119, February.
    5. repec:bla:tvecsg:v:109:y:2018:i:3:p:332-349 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Nadia Fiorino & Nicola Pontarollo & Roberto Ricciuti, 2016. "Voter Turnout in European Parliament Elections: A Spatial Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 5910, CESifo Group Munich.
    7. Paula Prenzel & Simona Iammarino, 2018. "Ageing labour: How does demographic change affect regional human capital?," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 1832, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Aug 2018.
    8. repec:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:19:p:5207-:d:269853 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Nicola Pontarollo & Carolina Serpieri, 2018. "A composite policy tool to measure territorial resilience capacity," JRC Working Papers JRC111389, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    10. Arntz, Melanie & Gregory, Terry, 2014. "What old stagers could teach us: Examining age complementarities in regional innovation systems," ZEW Discussion Papers 14-050, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    11. John Moffat & Duncan Roth, 2014. "Cohort size and youth labour-market outcomes: the role of measurement error," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201440, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    innovation; workforce age structure; exploratory space-time data analysis; regional disparities;

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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