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Regional age structure, human capital and innovation: Is demographic ageing increasing regional disparities?

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  • Gregory, Terry
  • Patuelli, Roberto

Abstract

Demographic change is expected to affect labour markets in very different ways on a regional scale. The objective of this paper is to explore the spatio-temporal patterns of recent distributional changes in the workers age structure, innovation output and skill composition for German regions by conducting an Exploratory Space-Time Data Analysis (ESTDA). Beside commonly used tools, we apply newly developed approaches which allow investigating the space-time dynamics of the spatial distributions. We include an analysis of the joint distributional dynamics of the patenting variable with the remaining interest variables. Overall, we find strong clustering tendencies for the demographic variables and innovation that constitute a great divide across German regions. The detected clusters partly evolve over time and suggest a demographic polarization trend among regions that may further reinforce the observed innovation divide in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregory, Terry & Patuelli, Roberto, 2013. "Regional age structure, human capital and innovation: Is demographic ageing increasing regional disparities?," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-057, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:13057
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    2. Michael J Böhm & Terry Gregory & Pamela Qendrai & Christian Siegel, 2021. "Demographic change and regional labour markets," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 37(1), pages 113-131.
    3. Diana Gutiérrez Posada & Fernando Rubiera Morollón & Ana Viñuela, 2018. "Ageing Places in an Ageing Country: The Local Dynamics of the Elderly Population in Spain," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 109(3), pages 332-349, July.
    4. Kiniorska Iwona & Pytel Sławomir, 2022. "Ageing of rural populations in Eastern Poland," Environmental & Socio-economic Studies, Sciendo, vol. 10(2), pages 1-18, June.
    5. Nadia Fiorino & Nicola Pontarollo & Roberto Ricciuti, 2016. "Voter Turnout in European Parliament Elections: A Spatial Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 5910, CESifo.
    6. Paula Prenzel & Simona Iammarino, 2018. "Ageing labour: How does demographic change affect regional human capital?," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 1832, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Aug 2018.
    7. Paula Prenzel & Simona Iammarino, 2021. "Labor Force Aging and the Composition of Regional Human Capital," Economic Geography, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 97(2), pages 140-163, March.
    8. Balazs Zelity, 2020. "Age Diversity and Aggregate Productivity," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2020-004, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    9. Bauer, Thomas K. & Rulff, Christian & Tamminga, Michael M., 2019. "Berlin calling - Internal migration in Germany," Ruhr Economic Papers 823, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    10. John Moffat & Duncan Roth, 2014. "Cohort size and youth labour-market outcomes: the role of measurement error," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201440, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    11. Blien Uwe & Möller Joachim & Hong Van Phan thi & Brunow Stephan, 2016. "Long-Lasting Labour Market Consequences of German Unification," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 236(2), pages 181-216, March.
    12. Matthias Piontek & Michael Wyrwich, 2017. "The emergence of entrepreneurial ideas at universities in times of demographic change: evidence from Germany [Die Entstehung von Gründungsideen und neuen Unternehmen in Zeiten demografischen Wandel," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 37(1), pages 1-37, February.
    13. Matthias Wrede, 2015. "Akzeptanz der Förderung gleichwertiger Lebensverhältnisse und Arbeitsbedingungen," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 35(1), pages 103-119, February.
    14. Krystian Heffner & Brygida Klemens & Brygida Solga, 2019. "Challenges of Regional Development in the Context of Population Ageing. Analysis Based on the Example of Opolskie Voivodeship," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-23, September.
    15. Pontarollo, Nicola & Serpieri, Carolina, 2020. "A composite policy tool to measure territorial resilience capacity," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    16. Paula Prenzel, 2021. "Are old regions less attractive? Interregional labour migration in a context of population ageing," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(6), pages 1429-1447, December.
    17. Andrés Vallone & Coro Chasco, 2020. "Spatiotemporal methods for analysis of urban system dynamics: an application to Chile," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 64(2), pages 421-454, April.
    18. Mikaela Backman & Janet E. Kohlhase, 2020. "Labor force diversity and firm survival," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(5), pages 903-928, November.
    19. Arntz, Melanie & Gregory, Terry, 2014. "What old stagers could teach us: Examining age complementarities in regional innovation systems," ZEW Discussion Papers 14-050, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    innovation; workforce age structure; exploratory space-time data analysis; regional disparities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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