IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iab/iabdpa/201637.html

Cohort size and youth labour-market outcomes: the role of measurement error

Author

Listed:
  • Moffat, John

    (Durham University, Department of Economics and Finance)

  • Roth, Duncan

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

Abstract

"Using data from 49 European regions covering 2005-2012, this paper finds that the estimated effect of cohort size on employment and unemployment outcomes is very sensitive to the age range of the sample. We argue that this is because the identification strategy commonly used in this literature is unable to eliminate the bias caused by measurement error in the cohort-size variable. The latter arises because large shares of the young choose to acquire education and consequently the size of an age group provides a poor measure of age-specific labour supply. In our view older age groups provide a more suitable sample to test the implications of cohort crowding since the former will have largely entered the labour market. Using a sample aged 25 - 29, which has relatively low rates of participation in education, we find robust evidence that an increase in cohort size increases employment and reduces unemployment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Suggested Citation

  • Moffat, John & Roth, Duncan, 2016. "Cohort size and youth labour-market outcomes: the role of measurement error," IAB-Discussion Paper 201637, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    • Handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201637
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doku.iab.de/discussionpapers/2016/dp3716.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Garloff, Alfred, 2016. "Side effects of the new German minimum wage on (un-)employment : first evidence from regional data," IAB-Discussion Paper 201631, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    2. John Moffat & Duncan Roth, 2016. "The Cohort Size-Wage Relationship in Europe," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 30(4), pages 415-432, December.
    3. Stepanok, Ignat, 2018. "A North–South model of trade with search unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 546-566.
    4. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    5. Wright, Robert E, 1991. "Cohort Size and Earnings in Great Britain," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 4(4), pages 295-305, November.
    6. Boll, Christina & Leppin, Julian & Rossen, Anja & Wolf, André, 2016. "Overeducation - New evidence for 25 European countries," IAB-Discussion Paper 201635, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    7. Robert Shimer, 2001. "The Impact of Young Workers on the Aggregate Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(3), pages 969-1007.
    8. Moulton, Brent R, 1990. "An Illustration of a Pitfall in Estimating the Effects of Aggregate Variables on Micro Unit," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(2), pages 334-338, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Grass, Karen & Weber, Enzo, 2016. "EU 4.0 - Die Debatte zu Digitalisierung und Arbeitsmarkt in Europa," IAB-Discussion Paper 201639, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    2. repec:iab:iabdpa:201639(en is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Garloff, Alfred & Roth, Duncan, 2016. "Regional age structure and young workers' wages," IAB-Discussion Paper 201606, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    2. John Moffat & Duncan Roth, 2016. "The Cohort Size-Wage Relationship in Europe," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 30(4), pages 415-432, December.
    3. John Moffat & Duncan Roth, 2017. "Cohort size and youth labour-market outcomes in Europe," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(4), pages 2735-2740.
    4. Knack, Steve & Xu, Lixin Colin, 2017. "Unbundling institutions for external finance: Worldwide firm-level evidence," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 215-232.
    5. Mario Reinhold & Stephan Thomsen, 2017. "The changing situation of labor market entrants in Germany [Die veränderliche Situation für Berufseinsteiger in Deutschland]," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 50(1), pages 161-174, August.
    6. Czarnitzki, Dirk & Doherr, Thorsten & Hussinger, Katrin & Schliessler, Paula & Toole, Andrew A., 2016. "Knowledge Creates Markets: The influence of entrepreneurial support and patent rights on academic entrepreneurship," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 131-146.
    7. Bellmann Lutz & Gerner Hans-Dieter & Leber Ute, 2014. "Firm-Provided Training During the Great Recession," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 234(1), pages 5-22, February.
    8. Aepli, Manuel & Kuhn, Andreas & Schweri, Jürg, 2021. "Culture, norms, and the provision of training by employers: Evidence from the Swiss language border," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    9. Grass, Karen & Weber, Enzo, 2016. "EU 4.0 - The debate on digitalisation and the labour market in Europe," IAB Discussion Paper 201639_en, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    10. Susana Ferreira & Mirko Moro, 2013. "Income and Preferences for the Environment: Evidence from Subjective Well-Being Data," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 45(3), pages 650-667, March.
    11. aus dem Moore, Jan Peter & Spitz-Oener, Alexandra, 2012. "Bye bye, GI: The impact of the US military drawdown on local German labor markets," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2012-024, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    12. Lihui Zhang, 2016. "Are youth offenders responsive to changing sanctions? Evidence from the Canadian Youth Criminal Justice Act of 2003," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(2), pages 515-554, May.
    13. Fertig, Michael & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Sinning, Mathias G., 2009. "The impact of demographic change on human capital accumulation," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 659-668, December.
    14. Thomas Barrios & Rebecca Diamond & Guido W. Imbens & Michal Kolesár, 2012. "Clustering, Spatial Correlations, and Randomization Inference," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 107(498), pages 578-591, June.
    15. Mertzanis, Charilaos & Garas, Samy & Abdel-Maksoud, Ahmed, 2020. "Integrity of financial information and firms' access to energy in developing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    16. Nicola Lacetera & Mario Macis & Robert Slonim, 2014. "Rewarding Volunteers: A Field Experiment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(5), pages 1107-1129, May.
    17. Hansen, Bruce E. & Lee, Seojeong, 2019. "Asymptotic theory for clustered samples," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 210(2), pages 268-290.
    18. Newhouse, David & Wolff, Claudia, 2014. "Cohort size and youth employment outcomes," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6848, The World Bank.
    19. João Pereira & Raul Ramos & Pedro S. Martins, 2025. "Wage Cyclicality and Labor Market Institutions," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(4), pages 598-615, October.
    20. Strand, Jon & Carson, Richard T. & Navrud, Stale & Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel & Vincent, Jeffrey R., 2017. "Using the Delphi method to value protection of the Amazon rainforest," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 475-484.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201637. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: IAB, Geschäftsbereich Informationsmanagement und Bibliothek (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iabbbde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.