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The Impact of Demographic Change on Human Capital Accumulation

Author

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  • Fertig, Michael

    (ISG, Cologne)

  • Schmidt, Christoph M.

    () (RWI)

  • Sinning, Mathias

    () (Australian National University)

Abstract

This paper investigates whether and to what extent demographic change has an impact on human capital accumulation. The effect of the relative cohort size on educational attainment of young adults in Germany is analyzed utilizing data from the German Socio-Economic Panel for West-German individuals of the birth cohorts 1966 to 1986. These are the cohorts which entered the labor market since the 1980's. Particular attention is paid to the effect of changes in labor market conditions, which constitute an important channel through which demographic change may affect human capital accumulation. Our findings suggest that the variables measuring demographic change exert a considerable though heterogeneous impact on the human capital accumulation of young Germans. Changing labor market conditions during the 1980's and 1990's exhibit a sizeable impact on both the highest schooling and the highest professional degree obtained by younger cohorts.

Suggested Citation

  • Fertig, Michael & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Sinning, Mathias, 2009. "The Impact of Demographic Change on Human Capital Accumulation," IZA Discussion Papers 4180, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp4180
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    Cited by:

    1. de Graaff, Thomas & Ozgen, Ceren & Roth, Duncan, 2018. "Varying Youth Cohort Effects on Regional Labour Market Outcomes in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 11932, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Reiling, Rune Borgan, 2016. "Does size matter? Educational attainment and cohort size," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 73-89.
    3. Paula Prenzel & Simona Iammarino, 2018. "Ageing labour: How does demographic change affect regional human capital?," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 1832, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Aug 2018.
    4. Okoampah, Sarah, 2016. "Cohort size effects on wages, working status, and work time," Ruhr Economic Papers 629, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    5. Thomas Ziesemer & Anne von Gässler, 2021. "Ageing, human capital and demographic dividends with endogenous growth, labour supply and foreign capital," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 20(2), pages 129-160, May.
    6. Garloff, Alfred & Roth, Duncan, 2016. "Regional age structure and young workers' wages," IAB Discussion Paper 201606, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    7. John Moffat & Duncan Roth, 2014. "Cohort size and youth labour-market outcomes: the role of measurement error," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201440, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    8. Lumpe, Claudia, 2017. "Public beliefs in social mobility and high-skilled migration," Ruhr Economic Papers 691, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    9. Claudia Lumpe, 2019. "Public beliefs in social mobility and high-skilled migration," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(3), pages 981-1008, July.
    10. Thomas Ziesemer & Anne von Gässler, 0. "Ageing, human capital and demographic dividends with endogenous growth, labour supply and foreign capital," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 0, pages 1-32.
    11. Michaela Fuchs, 2016. "Unemployment decline in East Germany: the role of demography," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 36(2), pages 145-168, October.
    12. Fuchs, Michaela & Weyh, Antje, 2014. "Demography and unemployment in East Germany : how close are the ties?," IAB Discussion Paper 201426, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    demographic change; vocational training; schooling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities

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