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Demography and unemployment in East Germany : how close are the ties?

Author

Listed:
  • Fuchs, Michaela

    () (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])

  • Weyh, Antje

    () (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])

Abstract

"We analyze the relation between population aging and the decline of unemployment in East Germany for the years from 1996 to 2012. To this we scrutinize both a direct and an indirect effect of aging on unemployment. The direct effect includes a decomposition of the East German unemployment rate into three components considering changes in the workforce's age structure, labor market participation, and age-specific unemployment rates. Results show that changes in the age structure of the workforce counteracted unemployment decline since 2005. Spatial panel regressions on the small-scale regional level, however, point towards an indirect effect of aging on unemployment that works through the increasing competition for labor. Overall results show that the declining unemployment rate in East Germany is indeed affected by aging as evidenced by a declining youth share and an increasing old-age share. This indicates that a reversed cohort crowding effect has taken place." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Suggested Citation

  • Fuchs, Michaela & Weyh, Antje, 2014. "Demography and unemployment in East Germany : how close are the ties?," IAB Discussion Paper 201426, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  • Handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201426
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    File URL: http://doku.iab.de/discussionpapers/2014/dp2614.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Stephan, Gesine & Uthmann, Sven, 2014. "Akzeptanz von Vergeltungsmaßnahmen am Arbeitsplatz : Befunde aus einer quasi-experimentellen Untersuchung," IAB Discussion Paper 201427, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    2. Blien Uwe & Möller Joachim & Hong Van Phan thi & Brunow Stephan, 2016. "Long-Lasting Labour Market Consequences of German Unification," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 236(2), pages 181-216, March.
    3. Garloff, Alfred & Roth, Duncan, 2016. "Regional age structure and young workers' wages," IAB Discussion Paper 201606, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bevölkerungsentwicklung; demografischer Wandel - Auswirkungen; Arbeitslosigkeitsentwicklung; Beschäftigungseffekte; Erwerbsbevölkerung; Altersstruktur; Arbeitslosenquote; Ostdeutschland;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure

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