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Demographic Aging and Employment Dynamics in German Regions: Modeling Regional Heterogeneity

Listed author(s):
  • de Graaff, Thomas

    ()

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • Arribas-Bel, Daniel

    ()

    (University of Liverpool)

  • Ozgen, Ceren

    ()

    (University of Birmingham)

Registered author(s):

    Persistence of high youth unemployment and dismal labour market outcomes are imminent concerns for most European economies. The relationship between demographic ageing and employment outcomes is even more worrying once the relationship is scrutinized at the regional level. We focus on modelling regional heterogeneity. We argue that an average impact across regions is often not very useful, and that – conditional on the region's characteristics – impacts may differ significantly. We advocate the use of modelling varying level and slope effects, and specifically to cluster them by the use of latent class or finite mixture models (FMMs). Moreover, in order to fully exploit the output from the FMM, we adopt self-organizing maps to understand the composition of the resulting segmentation and as a way to depict the underlying regional similarities that would otherwise be missed if a standard approach was adopted. We apply our proposed method to a case-study of Germany where we show that the regional impact of young age cohorts on the labor market is indeed very heterogeneous across regions and our results are robust against potential endogeneity bias.

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    File URL: http://ftp.iza.org/dp10734.pdf
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    Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 10734.

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    Length: 22 pages
    Date of creation: Apr 2017
    Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10734
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    1. Jakob Roland Munch & Michael Rosholm & Michael Svarer, 2006. "Are Homeowners Really More Unemployed?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(514), pages 991-1013, October.
    2. Peter Arcidiacono & John Bailey Jones, 2003. "Finite Mixture Distributions, Sequential Likelihood and the EM Algorithm," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(3), pages 933-946, 05.
    3. John Moffat & Duncan Roth, 2016. "The Cohort Size-Wage Relationship in Europe," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 30(4), pages 415-432, December.
    4. Alfred Garloff & Carsten Pohl & Norbert Schanne, 2013. "Do small labor market entry cohorts reduce unemployment?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(15), pages 379-406, September.
    5. Wehrens, Ron & Buydens, Lutgarde M. C., 2007. "Self- and Super-organizing Maps in R: The kohonen Package," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 21(i05).
    6. Thomas De Graaff & Michiel Van Leuvensteijn, 2013. "A European Cross-Country Comparison of the Impact of Homeownership and Transaction Costs on Job Tenure," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(9), pages 1443-1461, October.
    7. Robert Shimer, 2001. "The Impact of Young Workers on the Aggregate Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(3), pages 969-1007.
    8. Christopher L. Foote, 2007. "Space and time in macroeconomic panel data: young workers and state-level unemployment revisited," Working Papers 07-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    9. Marco Alfo & Giovanni Trovato & Robert J. Waldmann, 2008. "Testing for country heterogeneity in growth models using a finite mixture approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 487-514.
    10. Skans, Oskar Nordstrom, 2005. "Age effects in Swedish local labor markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 419-426, March.
    11. Greene, William H. & Hensher, David A., 2003. "A latent class model for discrete choice analysis: contrasts with mixed logit," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 681-698, September.
    12. Sanders Korenman & David Neumark, 2000. "Cohort Crowding and Youth Labor Markets (A Cross-National Analysis)," NBER Chapters,in: Youth Employment and Joblessness in Advanced Countries, pages 57-106 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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