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Demographic Aging and Employment Dynamics in German Regions: Modeling Regional Heterogeneity

Author

Listed:
  • de Graaff, Thomas

    () (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • Arribas-Bel, Daniel

    () (University of Liverpool)

  • Ozgen, Ceren

    () (University of Birmingham)

Abstract

Persistence of high youth unemployment and dismal labour market outcomes are imminent concerns for most European economies. The relationship between demographic ageing and employment outcomes is even more worrying once the relationship is scrutinized at the regional level. We focus on modelling regional heterogeneity. We argue that an average impact across regions is often not very useful, and that – conditional on the region's characteristics – impacts may differ significantly. We advocate the use of modelling varying level and slope effects, and specifically to cluster them by the use of latent class or finite mixture models (FMMs). Moreover, in order to fully exploit the output from the FMM, we adopt self-organizing maps to understand the composition of the resulting segmentation and as a way to depict the underlying regional similarities that would otherwise be missed if a standard approach was adopted. We apply our proposed method to a case-study of Germany where we show that the regional impact of young age cohorts on the labor market is indeed very heterogeneous across regions and our results are robust against potential endogeneity bias.

Suggested Citation

  • de Graaff, Thomas & Arribas-Bel, Daniel & Ozgen, Ceren, 2017. "Demographic Aging and Employment Dynamics in German Regions: Modeling Regional Heterogeneity," IZA Discussion Papers 10734, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10734
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jakob Roland Munch & Michael Rosholm & Michael Svarer, 2006. "Are Homeowners Really More Unemployed?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(514), pages 991-1013, October.
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    4. Alfred Garloff & Carsten Pohl & Norbert Schanne, 2013. "Do small labor market entry cohorts reduce unemployment?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(15), pages 379-406, September.
    5. Wehrens, Ron & Buydens, Lutgarde M. C., 2007. "Self- and Super-organizing Maps in R: The kohonen Package," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 21(i05).
    6. Thomas De Graaff & Michiel Van Leuvensteijn, 2013. "A European Cross-Country Comparison of the Impact of Homeownership and Transaction Costs on Job Tenure," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(9), pages 1443-1461, October.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    demographic aging; employment; finite mixture models; self-organizing maps; youth cohorts; immigrant workers;

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General

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