IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp11932.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Varying Youth Cohort Effects on Regional Labour Market Outcomes in Germany

Author

Listed:
  • de Graaff, Thomas

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • Ozgen, Ceren

    (University of Birmingham)

  • Roth, Duncan

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg)

Abstract

We assess how changes in youth cohort sizes effect employment rates in German labour market regions. Replicating the conventional approach, we estimate that a percentage increase in the youth share reduces regional employment rates by −0.2%. We challenge the assumption that cohort size effects are homogenous across space and find robust evidence that the negative effect of youth cohort size is more pronounced in the labour markets of metropolitan regions. These results suggest an upward pressure on urban regional employment rates as a result of the projected decrease in the size of the German youth share.

Suggested Citation

  • de Graaff, Thomas & Ozgen, Ceren & Roth, Duncan, 2018. "Varying Youth Cohort Effects on Regional Labour Market Outcomes in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 11932, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11932
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ftp.iza.org/dp11932.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Moffat & Duncan Roth, 2016. "The Cohort Size-Wage Relationship in Europe," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 30(4), pages 415-432, December.
    2. Alfred Garloff & Carsten Pohl & Norbert Schanne, 2013. "Do small labor market entry cohorts reduce unemployment?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(15), pages 379-406.
    3. Marco Di Cataldo & Andrés Rodríguez-Pose, 2017. "What drives employment growth and social inclusion in the regions of the European Union?," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(12), pages 1840-1859, December.
    4. Abhradeep Maiti & Debarshi Indra, 2016. "Regional Variations In Labor Demand Elasticity: Evidence From U.S. Counties," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(4), pages 635-658, September.
    5. Helmut Herwartz & Annekatrin Niebuhr, 2017. "Regional Labor Market Performance in Europe," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 40(3), pages 270-296, May.
    6. Skans, Oskar Nordstrom, 2005. "Age effects in Swedish local labor markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 419-426, March.
    7. Fertig, Michael & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Sinning, Mathias G., 2009. "The impact of demographic change on human capital accumulation," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 659-668, December.
    8. Di Addario, Sabrina, 2011. "Job search in thick markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 303-318, May.
    9. Irene Mosca, 2009. "Population Ageing and the Labour Market: Evidence from Italy," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 23(2), pages 371-395, June.
    10. Sanders Korenman & David Neumark, 2000. "Cohort Crowding and Youth Labor Markets (A Cross-National Analysis)," NBER Chapters, in: Youth Employment and Joblessness in Advanced Countries, pages 57-106, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Hisamitsu Saito & JunJie Wu, 2016. "Agglomeration, Congestion, And U.S. Regional Disparities In Employment Growth," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(1), pages 53-71, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. de Graaff, Thomas & Arribas-Bel, Daniel & Ozgen, Ceren, 2017. "Demographic Aging and Employment Dynamics in German Regions: Modeling Regional Heterogeneity," IZA Discussion Papers 10734, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Fuchs, Michaela & Weyh, Antje, 2014. "Demography and unemployment in East Germany : how close are the ties?," IAB Discussion Paper 201426, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    3. John Moffat & Duncan Roth, 2014. "Cohort size and youth labour-market outcomes: the role of measurement error," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201440, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    4. Michaela Fuchs, 2016. "Unemployment decline in East Germany: the role of demography," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 36(2), pages 145-168, October.
    5. Okoampah, Sarah, 2016. "Cohort size effects on wages, working status, and work time," Ruhr Economic Papers 629, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    6. John Moffat & Duncan Roth, 2016. "The Cohort Size-Wage Relationship in Europe," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 30(4), pages 415-432, December.
    7. Dahlberg, Susanne & Nahum, Ruth-Aïda, 2003. "Cohort Effects on Earnings Profiles: Evidence from Sweden," Arbetsrapport 2003:3, Institute for Futures Studies.
    8. van Dijk, Mathijs A. & van Dalen, Hendrik P. & Hyde, Martin, 2020. "Who bears the brunt? The impact of banking crises on younger and older workers," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    9. Garloff, Alfred & Roth, Duncan, 2016. "Regional age structure and young workers' wages," IAB Discussion Paper 201606, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    10. Alfred Garloff & Rüdiger Wapler, 2013. "Are the Number of Skilled Workers Running Out in Germany? The (Non)-Consequences of Demographic Change," ERSA conference papers ersa13p854, European Regional Science Association.
    11. Duncan Roth & John Moffat, 2014. "Cohort size and youth unemployment in Europe: a regional analysis," ERSA conference papers ersa14p1546, European Regional Science Association.
    12. John Moffat & Duncan Roth, 2017. "Cohort size and youth labour-market outcomes in Europe," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(4), pages 2735-2740.
    13. Ademola Obafemi Young, 2021. "Cohort Size and Unemployment Rate: New Insights from Nigeria," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 13(1), pages 122-151, January.
    14. da Mata, D. & Deichmann, U. & Henderson, J.V. & Lall, S.V. & Wang, H.G., 2007. "Determinants of city growth in Brazil," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 252-272, September.
    15. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Michael Storper, 2020. "Housing, urban growth and inequalities: The limits to deregulation and upzoning in reducing economic and spatial inequality," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 57(2), pages 223-248, February.
    16. Francesca Carta & Lucia Rizzica, 2015. "Female employment and pre-kindergarten: on the uninteded effects of an Italian reform," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1030, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    17. Alfred Garloff & Carsten Pohl & Norbert Schanne, 2013. "Do small labor market entry cohorts reduce unemployment?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(15), pages 379-406.
    18. Maria Rita Testa & Vegard Skirbekk & Wolfgang Lutz, 2006. "The Low Fertility Trap Hypothesis. Forces that May Lead to Further Postponement and Fewer Births in Europe," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 4(1), pages 167-192.
    19. Mario Reinhold & Stephan Thomsen, 2017. "The changing situation of labor market entrants in Germany [Die veränderliche Situation für Berufseinsteiger in Deutschland]," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 50(1), pages 161-174, August.
    20. Yudai Higashi, 2021. "Agglomeration Effects on Job Matching Efficiency: Evidence from Japan," Discussion Paper Series DP2021-03, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    employment rate; youth share; Germany; regional heterogeneity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor
    • R1 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics
    • R2 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11932. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.iza.org .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.iza.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.