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Do small labor market entry cohorts reduce unemployment?

Author

Listed:
  • Alfred Garloff

    (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB))

  • Carsten Pohl

    (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB))

  • Norbert Schanne

    (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB))

Abstract

"In this paper we study the effect of small labor market entry cohorts on (un)employment in Western Germany. From a theoretical point of view, decreasing cohort sizes may on the one hand reduce unemployment due to 'inverse cohort crowding' or on the other hand increase unemployment if companies reduce jobs disproportionately. Consequently, the actual effect of cohort shrinking on (un)employment is an empirical question. We analyze the relationship between (un)employment and cohort sizes using a long panel of Western German labor market regions. In this context, we account for both the likely endogeneity of cohort size due to migration of the (young) workforce across regions using lagged births as instruments as well as for temporal and spatial autocorrelation. Our results provide good news for the (Western) German labor market: small entry cohorts are indeed likely to decrease the overall unemployment rate and thus to improve the situation of job seekers. Accordingly, with regard to the employment rate we find that it is positively affected by a decrease in the youth share." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Alfred Garloff & Carsten Pohl & Norbert Schanne, 2013. "Do small labor market entry cohorts reduce unemployment?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(15), pages 379-406, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:29:y:2013:i:15
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. John Moffat & Duncan Roth, 2016. "The Cohort Size-Wage Relationship in Europe," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 30(4), pages 415-432, December.
    2. Marco Caliendo & Jens Hogenacker & Steffen Künn & Frank Wießner, 2012. "Alte Idee, neues Programm: Der Gründungszuschuss als Nachfolger von Überbrückungsgeld und Ich-AG," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 45(2), pages 99-123, July.
    3. Alfred Garloff & Rüdiger Wapler, 2013. "Are the Number of Skilled Workers Running Out in Germany? The (Non)-Consequences of Demographic Change," ERSA conference papers ersa13p854, European Regional Science Association.
    4. Duncan Roth & John Moffat, 2014. "Cohort size and youth unemployment in Europe: a regional analysis," ERSA conference papers ersa14p1546, European Regional Science Association.
    5. Michaela Fuchs & Antje Weyh, 2014. "Demographic change and unemployment in East Germany: how close are the ties?," ERSA conference papers ersa14p220, European Regional Science Association.
    6. de Graaff, Thomas & Arribas-Bel, Daniel & Ozgen, Ceren, 2017. "Demographic Aging and Employment Dynamics in German Regions: Modeling Regional Heterogeneity," IZA Discussion Papers 10734, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    7. Schmelzer, Paul, 2011. "Unemployment and occupational mobility at the beginning of employment career in Germany and the UK," IAB Discussion Paper 201125, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    8. Engelmann, Sabine, 2011. "Trade liberalisation, technical change and skill-specific unemployment," IAB Discussion Paper 201119, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    9. Okoampah, Sarah, 2016. "Cohort size effects on wages, working status, and work time," Ruhr Economic Papers 629, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    10. Dietrich, Hans, 2015. "Jugendarbeitslosigkeit aus einer europäischen Perspektive : theoretische Ansätze, empirische Konzepte und ausgewählte Befunde," IAB Discussion Paper 201524, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    11. Michaela Fuchs, 2016. "Unemployment decline in East Germany: the role of demography," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 36(2), pages 145-168, October.
    12. Zapfel, Stefan & Promberger, Markus, 2011. "Gemeinschaft, Gesellschaft und soziale Sicherung : Überlegungen zu Genese und Wandel des modernen Wohlfahrtsstaats," IAB Discussion Paper 201121, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    13. Fuchs, Michaela & Weyh, Antje, 2014. "Demography and unemployment in East Germany : how close are the ties?," IAB Discussion Paper 201426, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    14. John Moffat & Duncan Roth, 2014. "Cohort size and youth labour-market outcomes: the role of measurement error," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201440, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    cohort size; demographic change; labor market;

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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