IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v35y2013icp981-989.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Population ageing and the labour market: Modelling size and age-specific effects

Author

Listed:
  • Lisenkova, Katerina
  • Mérette, Marcel
  • Wright, Robert

Abstract

This paper presents a dynamic Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) model of Scotland. The model is used to examine the impact of population ageing on the labour market. More specifically, it is used to evaluate the effects of labour force decline and labour force ageing on key macro-economic variables. The second effect is assumed to operate through age-specific productivity and labour force participation. In the analysis, particular attention is paid to how population ageing impinges on the government expenditure constraint. The basic structure of the model follows the Auerbach and Kotlikoff tradition. However, the model takes into consideration directly age-specific mortality. This is analogous to “building in” a cohort-component population projection structure to the model, which allows more complex and more realistic demographic scenarios to be considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Lisenkova, Katerina & Mérette, Marcel & Wright, Robert, 2013. "Population ageing and the labour market: Modelling size and age-specific effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 981-989.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:35:y:2013:i:c:p:981-989
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.09.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999313003660
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.09.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    2. Menahem E. Yaari, 1965. "Uncertain Lifetime, Life Insurance, and the Theory of the Consumer," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 32(2), pages 137-150.
    3. Tony Meagher & James Giesecke, 2008. "Population Ageing and Structural Adjustment," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 11(3), pages 227-247.
    4. Burfisher,Mary E., 2011. "Introduction to Computable General Equilibrium Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521766968, December.
    5. Mary O'Mahony & Marcel P. Timmer, 2009. "Output, Input and Productivity Measures at the Industry Level: The EU KLEMS Database," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(538), pages 374-403, June.
    6. Antoine Bommier & Ronald D. Lee, 2003. "Overlapping generations models with realistic demography," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 16(1), pages 135-160, February.
    7. Fougere, Maxime & Merette, Marcel, 1999. "Population ageing and economic growth in seven OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 411-427, August.
    8. Burfisher,Mary E., 2011. "Introduction to Computable General Equilibrium Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521139779, December.
    9. Jacob Mincer, 1958. "Investment in Human Capital and Personal Income Distribution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(4), pages 281-281.
    10. Fougere, Maxime & Mercenier, Jean & Merette, Marcel, 2007. "A sectoral and occupational analysis of population ageing in Canada using a dynamic CGE overlapping generations model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 690-711, July.
    11. K. Lisenkova & P. G. McGregor & N. Pappas & J. K. Swales & K. Turner & R. E. Wright, 2010. "Scotland the Grey: A Linked Demographic-Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis of the Impact of Population Ageing and Decline," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(10), pages 1351-1368.
    12. Mérette Marcel & Georges Patrick, 2010. "Demographic Changes and the Gains from Globalisation: An Analysis of Ageing, Capital Flows, and International Trade," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-39, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sang-Hyop Lee & Jungsuk Kim & Donghyun Park, 2017. "Demographic Change and Fiscal Sustainability in Asia," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 287-322, October.
    2. Costantini, Valeria & Sforna, Giorgia, 2020. "A dynamic CGE model for jointly accounting ageing population, automation and environmental tax reform. European Union as a case study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 280-306.
    3. Tselmuun Tserenkhuu, 2023. "Population aging and economic growth: A semiparametric panel data analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(1), pages 342-354.
    4. Michaela Fuchs & Antje Weyh, 2014. "Demographic change and unemployment in East Germany: how close are the ties?," ERSA conference papers ersa14p220, European Regional Science Association.
    5. Buchmann, Manuel, 2020. "The Effect of Demographic Change on the Swiss Labor Market: The Role of Participation Rates," Working papers 2020/10, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    6. Martin Stepanek, 2022. "Sectoral Impacts of International Labour Migration and Population Ageing in the Czech Republic," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(2), pages 375-400, August.
    7. Siow Li Lai & Tien Ming Yip, 2022. "The role of older workers in population aging–economic growth nexus: evidence from developing countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1875-1912, August.
    8. Osathanunkul, Rossarin & Dumrong, Pasinee & Yamaka, Woraphon & Maneejuk, Paravee, 2023. "The nonlinear impacts of aging labor and government health expenditures on productivity in ASEAN+3 economies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 450-470.
    9. Thach Ngoc Pham & Duc Hong Vo, 2021. "Aging Population and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: A Quantile Regression Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(1), pages 108-122, January.
    10. Katarzyna Maj-Waśniowska & Tomasz Jedynak, 2020. "The Issues and Challenges of Local Government Units in the Era of Population Ageing," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-23, June.
    11. Kim, Euijune & Hewings, Geoffrey J.D. & Lee, Changkeun, 2016. "Impact of educational investments on economic losses from population ageing using an interregional CGE-population model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 126-138.
    12. Michaela Fuchs, 2016. "Unemployment decline in East Germany: the role of demography," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 36(2), pages 145-168, October.
    13. Hauser, Luisa-Marie & Schlag, Carsten-Henning & Wolf, André, 2020. "Demographic change in Switzerland: Impacts on economic growth in an Overlapping Generations Model," HWWI Research Papers 191, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    14. Kolasa, Aleksandra & Rubaszek, Michał, 2016. "The effect of ageing on the European economies in a life-cycle model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 50-57.
    15. Fuchs, Michaela & Weyh, Antje, 2014. "Demography and unemployment in East Germany : how close are the ties?," IAB-Discussion Paper 201426, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    16. Yasmín Ezzatvar & Joaquín Calatayud & Lars Louis Andersen & Edgar Ramos Vieira & Rubén López-Bueno & José Casaña, 2021. "Muscular Fitness and Work Ability among Physical Therapists," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-10, February.
    17. Kudrna, George & Tran, Chung & Woodland, Alan, 2015. "The dynamic fiscal effects of demographic shift: The case of Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 105-122.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    2. Jan Hagemejer & Marcin Bielecki & Karolina Goraus & Joanna Tyrowicz, 2014. "The Sooner The Better - The Welfare Effects of the Retirement Age Increase Under Various Pension Schemes," EcoMod2014 6868, EcoMod.
    3. Magnani, Riccardo, 2011. "A general equilibrium evaluation of the sustainability of the new pension reforms in Italy," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 5-35, March.
    4. Woodland, A., 2016. "Taxation, Pensions, and Demographic Change," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 713-780, Elsevier.
    5. Miguel Sánchez-Romero & Concepció Patxot & Elisenda Rentería & Guadalupe Souto, 2013. "On the effects of public and private transfers on capital accumulation: some lessons from the NTA aggregates," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1409-1430, October.
    6. Katerina Lisenkova, 2016. "An Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) Model with Age-variable Rate of Time Preference," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 458, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    7. Georges, Patrick & Seçkin, Aylin, 2016. "From pro-natalist rhetoric to population policies in Turkey? An OLG general equilibrium analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 79-93.
    8. Marcin Bielecki & Karolina Goraus & Jan Hagemejer & Joanna Tyrowicz, 2014. "The Sooner The Better - The Welfare Effects of the Retirement Age Increase Under Various Pension Schemes," Working Papers 2014-12, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    9. Sonmez, Yontem & McDonald, Scott & Walmsley, Terrie, 2011. "Augmenting the GTAP Database: Are the Data on Intra Institutional Transactions Important?," Conference papers 332085, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    10. Bielecki, Marcin & Goraus, Karolina & Hagemejer, Jan & Tyrowicz, Joanna, 2016. "Decreasing fertility vs increasing longevity: Raising the retirement age in the context of ageing processes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 125-143.
    11. M. Alejandro Cardenete & M. Carmen Lima & Ferran Sancho, 2013. "Are There Key Sectors? An Appraisal Using Applied General Equilibrium," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 43(2,3), pages 111-129, Winter.
    12. Cai, Yiyong & Newth, David & Finnigan, John & Gunasekera, Don, 2015. "A hybrid energy-economy model for global integrated assessment of climate change, carbon mitigation and energy transformation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 381-395.
    13. Stelter, Robert, 2014. "Over-aging: Are present human populations too old?," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 137, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
    14. Wang, X. & Dietrich, J.P. & Lotze-Campen, H. & Biewald, A. & Munson, T.S. & Muller, C., 2018. "Trading More Food in the Context of High-end Climate Change: Implications for Land Displacement through Agricultural Trade," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 276997, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Mario A. Fernandez & Adam J. Daigneault, 2018. "Money Does Grow On Trees: Impacts Of The Paris Agreement On The New Zealand Economy," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(03), pages 1-23, August.
    16. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Antonio G. Gómez-Plana, 2015. "Alternative strategies to reduce public deficits: Taxes vs. spending," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 18, pages 45-70, May.
    17. Ramón E. Key-Hernández & Claudina Villarroel, 2014. "Domestic impact of production cuts in OPEC countries: The cases of Nigeria and Venezuela," EcoMod2014 7007, EcoMod.
    18. Rose, Adam & Chen, Zhenhua & Wei, Dan & Prager, Fynn, 2015. "Estimating the Macroeconomic Impacts of U.S. Anti-Dumping Enforcement," Conference papers 332572, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    19. Orlov, Anton, 2015. "An assessment of optimal gas pricing in Russia: A CGE approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 492-506.
    20. Leone Walters & Heinrich R. Bohlmann & Matthew W. Clance, 2016. "The Impact of the COMESA-EAC-SADC Tripartite Free Trade Agreement on the South African Economy," Working Papers 201669, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    OLG-CGE modelling; Population ageing; Scotland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:35:y:2013:i:c:p:981-989. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.