IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mes/emfitr/v57y2021i1p108-122.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Aging Population and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: A Quantile Regression Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Thach Ngoc Pham
  • Duc Hong Vo

Abstract

The economic effects and consequences of an aging population on economic growth in terms of productivity and demand have attracted great attention from policy makers, particular in emerging countries. This study examines the effect of an aging population on economic growth in 84 developing countries in the period 1971–2015, using panel fixed effects and quantile regression. The results confirm a negative effect on economic growth in the long run from having a high share of young people (14 years old and younger). However, in the long run, a positive relationship exists between the share of those 65 and older and economic performance. The quantile regression results confirm the importance of an aging population on economic growth at most percentiles. However, from lower to higher percentiles, the estimated magnitudes differ.

Suggested Citation

  • Thach Ngoc Pham & Duc Hong Vo, 2021. "Aging Population and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: A Quantile Regression Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(1), pages 108-122, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:57:y:2021:i:1:p:108-122
    DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2019.1698418
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/1540496X.2019.1698418
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/1540496X.2019.1698418?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lee, Sang-Hyop & Mason, Andrew, 2007. "Who gains from the demographic dividend? Forecasting income by age," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 603-619.
    2. Tosun, Mehmet Serkan, 2003. "Population aging and economic growth: political economy and open economy effects," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 291-296, December.
    3. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2010. "Implications of population ageing for economic growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(4), pages 583-612, Winter.
    4. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson, 2007. "Disease and Development: The Effect of Life Expectancy on Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(6), pages 925-985, December.
    5. Kazunobu Hayakawa & Fukunari Kimura & Hyun-Hoon Lee, 2013. "How Does Country Risk Matter for Foreign Direct Investment?," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 51(1), pages 60-78, March.
    6. Lisa Cameron & Deborah Cobb-Clark, 2002. "Old-age labour supply in the developing world," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(10), pages 649-652.
    7. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2010. "Population Aging and Economic Growth in Asia," NBER Chapters, in: The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia, pages 61-89, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Juan Carlos Reboredo & Nader Naifar, 2017. "Do Islamic Bond (Sukuk) Prices Reflect Financial and Policy Uncertainty? A Quantile Regression Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(7), pages 1535-1546, July.
    9. T. S. Breusch & A. R. Pagan, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 239-253.
    10. Oasis Kodila-Tedika & Remy Bolito-Losembe, 2014. "Poverty and Intelligence: Evidence using Quantile Regression," Economic Research Guardian, Weissberg Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 25-32, June.
    11. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    12. Fougère, Maxime & Harvey, Simon & Mercenier, Jean & Mérette, Marcel, 2009. "Population ageing, time allocation and human capital: A general equilibrium analysis for Canada," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 30-39, January.
    13. Fang Wang, 2017. "Which Part of the Chinese Art Market Is More Worth Investing In? Applying the Quantile Regression to Analyze Chinese Oil Paintings 2000–2014," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(1), pages 44-53, January.
    14. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    15. Renuga Nagarajan & Aurora A.C. Teixeira & Sandra T. Silva, 2013. "The impact of an ageing population on economic growth: an exploratory review of the main mechanisms," FEP Working Papers 504, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    16. Karen A. Kopecky, 2011. "The Trend In Retirement," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(2), pages 287-316, May.
    17. S. P. Thi颡ut & T. Barnay & B. Ventelou, 2013. "Ageing, chronic conditions and the evolution of future drugs expenditure: a five-year micro-simulation from 2004 to 2029," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(13), pages 1663-1672, May.
    18. Deng, Wen-Shuenn & Lin, Yi-Chen & Gong, Jinguo, 2012. "A smooth coefficient quantile regression approach to the social capital–economic growth nexus," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 185-197.
    19. Daniel Cotlear, 2011. "Population Aging : Is Latin America Ready? [Envejecimiento de la población : ¿está preparada América Latina ?]," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2542.
    20. Jørgen Elmeskov, 2004. "Aging, Public Budgets, and the Need for Policy Reform," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 233-242, May.
    21. Mason, Andrew & Lee, Ronald, 2013. "Labor and consumption across the lifecycle," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 1, pages 16-27.
    22. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    23. Joe Stone & Hyun-Hoon Lee, 1995. "Determinants of intra-industry trade: A longitudinal, cross-country analysis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 131(1), pages 67-85, March.
    24. Narciso, Alexandre, 2010. "The impact of population ageing on international capital flows," MPRA Paper 26457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Elgin, Ceyhun & Tumen, Semih, 2012. "Can sustained economic growth and declining population coexist?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1899-1908.
    26. Takatoshi Ito & Andrew Rose, 2010. "The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_08-2.
    27. Lee, Sang-Hyop & Mason, Andrew & Park, Donghyun, 2011. "Why Does Population Aging Matter So Much for Asia? Population Aging, Economic Growth, and Economic Security in Asia," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 284, Asian Development Bank.
    28. Lisenkova, Katerina & Mérette, Marcel & Wright, Robert, 2013. "Population ageing and the labour market: Modelling size and age-specific effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 981-989.
    29. Wen-Shuenn Deng & Yi-Chen Lin, 2013. "Parameter heterogeneity in the foreign direct investment-income inequality relationship: a semiparametric regression analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 845-872, October.
    30. David Blake & Les Mayhew, 2006. "On The Sustainability of the UK State Pension System in the Light of Population Ageing and Declining Fertility," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(512), pages 286-305, June.
    31. Sang-Hyop LEE & Andrew MASON & Donghyun PARK, 2011. "Why Does Population Aging Matter So Much for Asia? Population Aging, Economic Security and Economic Growth in Asia," Working Papers DP-2011-04, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    32. Alders, Peter & Broer, D. Peter, 2005. "Ageing, fertility, and growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(5-6), pages 1075-1095, June.
    33. Bakshi, Gurdip S & Chen, Zhiwu, 1994. "Baby Boom, Population Aging, and Capital Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(2), pages 165-202, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jian Zhou & Jingjing Deng & Li Li & Shuang Wang, 2023. "The Demographic Dividend or the Education Dividend? Evidence from China’s Economic Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-17, April.
    2. Siow Li Lai & Tien Ming Yip, 2022. "The role of older workers in population aging–economic growth nexus: evidence from developing countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1875-1912, August.
    3. Zhiwei Liu & Yonglei Fang & Lei Ma, 2022. "A Study on the Impact of Population Age Structure Change on Economic Growth in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-15, March.
    4. Luman Zhao & Yabin Zhang & Yuefeng Xie, 2023. "Does the Aging of the Chinese Population Have an Impact on Outward Foreign Direct Investment?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-24, September.
    5. Kim, Jounghyeon, 2023. "Does population aging matter for remittances in developing countries?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1038-1056.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Renuga Nagarajan & Aurora A.C. Teixeira & Sandra T. Silva, 2013. "The impact of an ageing population on economic growth: an exploratory review of the main mechanisms," FEP Working Papers 504, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    2. Renuga Nagarajan & Aurora A.C. Teixeira & Sandra T. Silva, 2013. "The impact of population ageing on economic growth: an in-depth bibliometric analysis," FEP Working Papers 505, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    3. Renuga Nagarajan & Aurora A. C. Teixeira & Sandra Silva, 2017. "The Impact Of Population Ageing On Economic Growth: A Bibliometric Survey," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(02), pages 275-296, June.
    4. Sang-Hyop Lee & Jungsuk Kim & Donghyun Park, 2017. "Demographic Change and Fiscal Sustainability in Asia," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 287-322, October.
    5. Mamun, Shamsul Arifeen Khan & Rahman, Mohammad Mafizur & Khanam, Rasheda, 2020. "The relation between an ageing population and economic growth in Bangladesh: Evidence from an endogenous growth model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 14-25.
    6. Costantini, Valeria & Sforna, Giorgia, 2020. "A dynamic CGE model for jointly accounting ageing population, automation and environmental tax reform. European Union as a case study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 280-306.
    7. Aurora A. C. Teixeira & N. Renuga Nagarajan & Sandra T. Silva, 2017. "The Impact of Ageing and the Speed of Ageing on the Economic Growth of Least Developed, Emerging and Developed Countries, 1990–2013," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 909-934, August.
    8. N Renuga Nagarajan & Mineko Wada & Mei Lan Fang & Andrew Sixsmith, 2019. "Defining organizational contributions to sustaining an ageing workforce: a bibliometric review," European Journal of Ageing, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 337-361, September.
    9. Mónica L. Azevedo & Óscar Afonso & Sandra T. Silva, 2017. "Endogenous Growth and Intellectual Property Rights: A North–South Modelling Proposal with Population Ageing," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(1), pages 72-94, March.
    10. Katarzyna Maj-Waśniowska & Tomasz Jedynak, 2020. "The Issues and Challenges of Local Government Units in the Era of Population Ageing," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-23, June.
    11. Tian Xiong & Kaan Celebi & Paul J. J. Welfens, 2022. "OECD countries’ twin long-run challenge: The impact of aging dynamics and increasing natural disasters on savings ratios," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 741-759, October.
    12. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2020. "Health Care Spending and Economic Growth: Armey-Rahn Curve in a Panel of European Economies," MPRA Paper 106705, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Shrabanti Maity & Anup Sinha, 2021. "Linkages between Economic Growth and Population Ageing with a Knowledge Spillover Effect," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 12(4), pages 1905-1924, December.
    14. Sala Adrian Lucian, 2017. "Population Decline And Its Challenges For Economic Growth," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 4, pages 237-255, August.
    15. María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2020. "Fiscal Sustainability in Aging Societies: Evidence from Euro Area Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-20, December.
    16. Demetrescu, Matei & Hosseinkouchack, Mehdi & Rodrigues, Paulo M. M., 2023. "Tests of no cross-sectional error dependence in panel quantile regressions," Ruhr Economic Papers 1041, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    17. Rilwan Sakariyahu & Fatima Oyebola Etudaiye-Muhtar & Rodiat Lawal & Olayinka Oyekola, 2023. "Financial technology and human development in Africa: The moderating impact of energy poverty," Discussion Papers 2302, University of Exeter, Department of Economics.
    18. Chen, Hongrui, 2023. "Energy innovations, natural resource abundance, urbanization, and environmental sustainability in the post-covid era. Does environmental regulation matter?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    19. Michele Catalano & Emilia Pezzolla, 2016. "The effects of education and aging in an OLG model: long-run growth in France, Germany and Italy," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(4), pages 757-800, November.
    20. Kai Daniel Schmid & Michael Schmidt, 2012. "EMU and the Renaissance of Sovereign Credit Risk Perception," IAW Discussion Papers 87, Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (IAW).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:57:y:2021:i:1:p:108-122. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/MREE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.