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How does country risk matter for foreign direct investment?

  • Hayakawa, Kazunobu
  • Kimura, Fukunari
  • Lee, Hyun-Hoon

In this paper, we aim to identify the political and financial risk components that matter most for the activities of multinational corporations. Our paper is the first paper to comprehensively examine the impact of various components of not only political risk but also financial risk on inward FDI, from both long-run and short-run perspectives. Using a sample of 93 countries (including 60 developing countries) for the period 1985-2007, we find that among the political risk components, government stability, socioeconomic conditions, investment profile, internal conflict, external conflict, corruption, religious tensions, democratic accountability, and ethnic tensions have a close association with FDI flows. In particular, socioeconomic conditions, investment profile, and external conflict appear to be the most influential components of political risk in attracting foreign investment. Among the financial risk components, only exchange rate stability yields statistically significant positive coefficients when estimated only for developing countries. In contrast, current account as a percentage of exports of goods and services, foreign debt as a percentage of GDP, net international liquidity as the number of months of import cover, and current account as a percentage of GDP yield negative coefficients in some specifications. Thus, multinationals do not seem to consider seriously the financial risk of the host country.

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File URL: http://ir.ide.go.jp/dspace/bitstream/2344/946/1/ARRIDE_Discussion_No.281_hayakawa.pdf
File Function: First version, 2011
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Paper provided by Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO) in its series IDE Discussion Papers with number 281.

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Date of creation: Feb 2011
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Publication status: Published in IDE Discussion Paper. No. 281 2011. 2
Handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper281
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  1. R Blundell & Steven Bond, . "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data model," Economics Papers W14&104., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  2. Bruce Blonigen, 2005. "A Review of the Empirical Literature on FDI Determinants," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 33(4), pages 383-403, December.
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  8. Ivar Kolstad & Espen Villanger, 2008. "Foreign Direct Investment in the Caribbean," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 26(1), pages 79-89, 01.
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  11. Joe Stone & Hyun-Hoon Lee, 1995. "Determinants of intra-industry trade: A longitudinal, cross-country analysis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 131(1), pages 67-85, March.
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