IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mes/emfitr/v53y2017i7p1535-1546.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do Islamic Bond (Sukuk) Prices Reflect Financial and Policy Uncertainty? A Quantile Regression Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Carlos Reboredo
  • Nader Naifar

Abstract

We studied the relationship between Islamic bond (sukuk) prices and financial and policy uncertainty conditions using a quantile regression approach. Our empirical results for the period 2010–2014 show that US bond prices had a negative impact and causality effects on sukuk prices, whereas European Monetary Union bond prices only co-moved with sukuk prices. We also show that financial uncertainty had a negative effect that was limited to intermediate sukuk quantiles; moreover, sukuk prices were not affected by economic policy uncertainty or stock market returns. Therefore, although Islamic bonds are distinctive assets, their price dynamics are dependent on other bond-related asset prices and so incorporate financial market uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Carlos Reboredo & Nader Naifar, 2017. "Do Islamic Bond (Sukuk) Prices Reflect Financial and Policy Uncertainty? A Quantile Regression Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(7), pages 1535-1546, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:53:y:2017:i:7:p:1535-1546
    DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2016.1256197
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/1540496X.2016.1256197
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/1540496X.2016.1256197?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Naifar, Nader & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Al dohaiman, Mohamed S., 2016. "Dependence structure between sukuk (Islamic bonds) and stock market conditions: An empirical analysis with Archimedean copulas," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 148-165.
    2. Godlewski, Christophe J. & Turk-Ariss, Rima & Weill, Laurent, 2016. "Do the type of sukuk and choice of shari’a scholar matter?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 132(S), pages 63-76.
    3. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Christiansen, Charlotte, 2014. "Quantiles of the realized stock–bond correlation and links to the macroeconomy," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 321-331.
    4. Bird, Ron & Yeung, Danny, 2012. "How do investors react under uncertainty?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 310-327.
    5. Bansal, Naresh & Connolly, Robert A. & Stivers, Chris, 2014. "The Stock-Bond Return Relation, the Term Structure’s Slope, and Asset-Class Risk Dynamics," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(3), pages 699-724, June.
    6. Wang, Yizhong & Chen, Carl R. & Huang, Ying Sophie, 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate investment: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 227-243.
    7. Nader Naifar & Slim Mseddi, 2013. "Sukuk spreads determinants and pricing model methodology," Afro-Asian Journal of Finance and Accounting, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 3(3), pages 241-257.
    8. Cremers, Martijn & Driessen, Joost & Maenhout, Pascal & Weinbaum, David, 2008. "Individual stock-option prices and credit spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2706-2715, December.
    9. Sin, Chor-yiu (CY), 2015. "The economic fundamental and economic policy uncertainty of Mainland China and their impacts on Taiwan and Hong Kong," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 298-311.
    10. Aloui, Chaker & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Hamida, Hela Ben, 2015. "Co-movement between sharia stocks and sukuk in the GCC markets: A time-frequency analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 69-79.
    11. Chuang, Chia-Chang & Kuan, Chung-Ming & Lin, Hsin-Yi, 2009. "Causality in quantiles and dynamic stock return-volume relations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1351-1360, July.
    12. Shin, Dongheon & Kim, Baeho, 2015. "Liquidity and credit risk before and after the global financial crisis: Evidence from the Korean corporate bond market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 38-61.
    13. Li, Xiao-Ming & Zhang, Bing & Gao, Ruzhao, 2015. "Economic policy uncertainty shocks and stock–bond correlations: Evidence from the US market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 91-96.
    14. Aloui, Chaker & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Hamida, Hela ben, 2015. "Global factors driving structural changes in the co-movement between sharia stocks and sukuk in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 311-329.
    15. Alexopoulos, Michelle & Cohen, Jon, 2015. "The power of print: Uncertainty shocks, markets, and the economy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 8-28.
    16. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George, 2013. "Dynamic co-movements of stock market returns, implied volatility and policy uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 87-92.
    17. el Alaoui, Abdelkader O. & Dewandaru, Ginanjar & Azhar Rosly, Saiful & Masih, Mansur, 2015. "Linkages and co-movement between international stock market returns: Case of Dow Jones Islamic Dubai Financial Market index," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 53-70.
    18. Arundina, Tika & Azmi Omar, Mohd. & Kartiwi, Mira, 2015. "The predictive accuracy of Sukuk ratings; Multinomial Logistic and Neural Network inferences," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 273-292.
    19. Bansal, Naresh & Connolly, Robert A. & Stivers, Chris, 2015. "Equity volatility as a determinant of future term-structure volatility," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 33-51.
    20. Baur, Dirk G., 2013. "The structure and degree of dependence: A quantile regression approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 786-798.
    21. Karnizova, Lilia & Li, Jiaxiong (Chris), 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty, financial markets and probability of US recessions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(2), pages 261-265.
    22. Buchinsky, Moshe, 1995. "Estimating the asymptotic covariance matrix for quantile regression models a Monte Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 303-338, August.
    23. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Reboredo, Juan Carlos & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Do global factors impact BRICS stock markets? A quantile regression approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 1-17.
    24. Byeongju Jeong, 2002. "Policy Uncertainty and Long-Run Investment and Output across Countries," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 43(2), pages 363-392, May.
    25. Tarun Chordia, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of Stock and Bond Market Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 85-129.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Balli, Faruk & Billah, Mabruk & Balli, Hatice Ozer & De Bruin, Anne, 2022. "Spillovers between Sukuks and Shariah-compliant equity markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    2. Paltrinieri, Andrea & Hassan, Mohammad Kabir & Bahoo, Salman & Khan, Ashraf, 2023. "A bibliometric review of sukuk literature," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 897-918.
    3. Pirgaip, Burak & Arslan-Ayaydin, Özgür & Karan, Mehmet Baha, 2021. "Do Sukuk provide diversification benefits to conventional bond investors? Evidence from Turkey," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    4. Ghlamallah, Ezzedine & Alexakis, Christos & Dowling, Michael & Piepenbrink, Anke, 2021. "The topics of Islamic economics and finance research," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 145-160.
    5. Elie Bouri & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Hardik A. Marfatia, 2019. "Geopolitical Risks and Movements in Islamic Bond and Equity Markets: A Note," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 367-379, April.
    6. Muhammad Safdar Sial & Jacob Cherian & Abdelrhman Meero & Asma Salman & Abdul Aziz Abdul Rahman & Sarminah Samad & Constantin Viorel Negrut, 2022. "Determining Financial Uncertainty through the Dynamics of Sukuk Bonds and Prices in Emerging Market Indices," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-13, March.
    7. Jawadi, Fredj & Jawadi, Nabila & Idi Cheffou, Abdoukarim, 2019. "A statistical analysis of uncertainty for conventional and ethical stock indexes," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 9-17.
    8. Guan, Jialin & Xu, Huijuan & Huo, Da & Hua, Yechun & Wang, Yunfeng, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate innovation: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    9. Thach Ngoc Pham & Duc Hong Vo, 2021. "Aging Population and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: A Quantile Regression Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(1), pages 108-122, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Muhammad Safdar Sial & Jacob Cherian & Abdelrhman Meero & Asma Salman & Abdul Aziz Abdul Rahman & Sarminah Samad & Constantin Viorel Negrut, 2022. "Determining Financial Uncertainty through the Dynamics of Sukuk Bonds and Prices in Emerging Market Indices," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-13, March.
    2. Naifar, Nader & Mroua, Mourad & Bahloul, Slah, 2017. "Do regional and global uncertainty factors affect differently the conventional bonds and sukuk? New evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 65-74.
    3. Naifar, Nader & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2016. "Do global financial distress and uncertainties impact GCC and global sukuk return dynamics?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 57-69.
    4. Paltrinieri, Andrea & Hassan, Mohammad Kabir & Bahoo, Salman & Khan, Ashraf, 2023. "A bibliometric review of sukuk literature," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 897-918.
    5. Naifar, Nader & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Al dohaiman, Mohamed S., 2016. "Dependence structure between sukuk (Islamic bonds) and stock market conditions: An empirical analysis with Archimedean copulas," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 148-165.
    6. Yang, Lu & Tian, Shuairu & Yang, Wei & Xu, Mingli & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2018. "Dependence structures between Chinese stock markets and the international financial market: Evidence from a wavelet-based quantile regression approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 116-137.
    7. Das, Debojyoti & Kannadhasan, M. & Bhattacharyya, Malay, 2019. "Do the emerging stock markets react to international economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk and financial stress alike?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-19.
    8. Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan, 2020. "Forecasting equity premium in a panel of OECD countries: The role of economic policy uncertainty," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 243-248.
    9. Reboredo, Juan C. & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2016. "Do financial stress and policy uncertainty have an impact on the energy and metals markets? A quantile regression approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 284-298.
    10. Al-Thaqeb, Saud Asaad & Algharabali, Barrak Ghanim, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty: A literature review," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    11. Huang, Wei-Ling & Lin, Wen-Yuan & Ning, Shao-Lin, 2020. "The effect of economic policy uncertainty on China’s housing market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    12. Makkonen, Adam & Vallström, Daniel & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Rahman, Md Lutfur & Haddad, Michel Ferreira Cardia, 2021. "The effect of temperature anomaly and macroeconomic fundamentals on agricultural commodity futures returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    13. Lee, Jungho & Xu, Jianhuan, 2019. "Tax uncertainty and business activity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 158-184.
    14. Mobeen Ur Rehman & Wafa Ghardallou & Nasir Ahmad & Xuan Vinh Vo & Sang Hoon Kang, 2024. "Does effect of risk and uncertainties on US sectoral returns differ across different investment horizons and market conditions," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 26(1), pages 1-49, February.
    15. You, Wanhai & Guo, Yawei & Zhu, Huiming & Tang, Yong, 2017. "Oil price shocks, economic policy uncertainty and industry stock returns in China: Asymmetric effects with quantile regression," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-18.
    16. Chaker Aloui & Rania Jammazi & Hela Ben Hamida, 2018. "Multivariate Co-movement Between Islamic Stock and Bond Markets Among the GCC: A Wavelet-Based View," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 52(2), pages 603-626, August.
    17. Li, Xiao-Ming & Peng, Lu, 2017. "US economic policy uncertainty and co-movements between Chinese and US stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 27-39.
    18. Serdar Ongan & Ismet Gocer, 2017. "Testing The Causalities Between Economic Policy Uncertainty And The Us Stock Indices: Applications Of Linear And Nonlinear Approaches," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(04), pages 1-20, December.
    19. Saeed, Momna & Elnahass, Marwa & Izzeldin, Marwan & Tsionas, Mike, 2021. "Yield spread determinants of sukuk and conventional bonds," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    20. Zhou, Zhongbao & Lin, Ling & Li, Shuxian, 2018. "International stock market contagion: A CEEMDAN wavelet analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 333-352.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:53:y:2017:i:7:p:1535-1546. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/MREE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.