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Demographic Change and Fiscal Sustainability in Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Sang-Hyop Lee

    (University of Hawaii at Manoa)

  • Jungsuk Kim

    (Sogang University)

  • Donghyun Park

    (Economics Research and Regional Cooperation Department (ERCD) of the Asian Development Bank (ADB))

Abstract

Changes in the population age structure can have significant effects on fiscal sustainability since they can affect both government revenue and expenditure. In this paper, we project government revenue, expenditure, and fiscal balance in developing Asia up to 2050 using a simple stylized model and the National Transfer Accounts data set. Rapidly aging countries are likely to suffer a tangible deterioration of fiscal sustainability under their current tax and expenditure system. On the other hand, rapid economic growth can improve fiscal health in poorer, relatively young countries with still-growing working-age populations. Overall, our results indicate that Asia’s population aging will adversely affect its fiscal sustainability, pointing to a need for Asian countries to further examine the impact of demographic shifts on their fiscal health.

Suggested Citation

  • Sang-Hyop Lee & Jungsuk Kim & Donghyun Park, 2017. "Demographic Change and Fiscal Sustainability in Asia," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 287-322, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:soinre:v:134:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s11205-016-1424-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11205-016-1424-0
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    Cited by:

    1. Jianguo Zhao & Lei Zhang, 2023. "Fiscal Expenditure Efficiency Measurement and Its Convergence Analysis on Aging Undertakings in China: Based on a Global Super-Efficiency Slacks-Based Measure Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-21, January.
    2. Taehwan Rhee & Jacob Wood & Jungsuk Kim, 2022. "Digital Transformation as a Demographic and Economic Integrated Policy for Southeast Asian Developing Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-19, March.
    3. George Kudrna & John Piggott & Phitawat Poonpolkul, 2022. "Extending pension policy in emerging Asia: An overlapping-generations model analysis for Indonesia," CAMA Working Papers 2022-14, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Kim, Hyun Kyung & Lee, Sang-Hyop, 2021. "The effects of population aging on South Korea’s economy: The National Transfer Accounts approach," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    5. Rimon Saha & Udaya S. Mishra, 2022. "Development goals, population demography and state expenditure on human priority sectors: a study of Indian major states," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 69(1), pages 21-47, March.
    6. Patrik Rovný & Serhiy Moroz & Jozef Palkovič & Elena Horská, 2021. "Impact of Demographic Structure on Economic Development of Ukrainian Coastal Regions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-19, February.
    7. Olayiwola, Saheed O. & Osakede, Uche Abamba & Adeyemi, Francis O., 2023. "Fiscal Sustainability and Demographic Transition in Nigeria," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 12(1), March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal projection; Tax; Public spending; Fiscal balance; Population aging; Asia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

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