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Population Ageing and Structural Adjustment

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  • James Giesecke
  • G.A. Meagher

Abstract

The future effects of population ageing on the Australian economy have been widely canvassed in recent years, most notably in the two Intergenerational Reports produced by the Australian Treasury and in the Economic Implications of an Ageing Australia report produced by the Productivity Commission. These reports are mainly concerned with the effect of ageing on the government's budgetary position. On the income side, they focus on how ageing affects labour supply and gross domestic product. On the expenditure side, they focus on how ageing affects various spending categories including education, health and aged care. This paper provides a complementary analysis in that it considers how the structure of the economy is likely to be affected by these influences. In particular, it analyses the effects on 64 skill groups, 81 occupations and 106 industries: a scale effect due to age-related shifts in total hours of employment (with the skill composition of employment unchanged). a skill effect due to age-related shifts in hours of employment distinguished by skill (with total hours of employment unchanged), a taste effect due to age-related shifts in the commodity composition of household final consumption, and a public effect due to age-related shifts in government final consumption. The simulations are conducted using the MONASH applied general equilibrium model of the Australian economy. They generate results for each year from 2004-05 to 2024-25, but the analysis concentrates on explaining the deviations in the levels of selected variables in the basecase (ageing) simulation from their values in the counterfactual (no ageing) simulation in the final year, i.e., 2024-25. Results are reported separately for each of the four effects and for all four taken together (the total effect). The paper pays particular attention to the implications of the analysis for economic policy.

Suggested Citation

  • James Giesecke & G.A. Meagher, 2009. "Population Ageing and Structural Adjustment," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-181, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  • Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-181
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2006. "The Displacement Effect of Labour-Market Programs: MONASH Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 82(s1), pages 26-40, September.
    2. James Giesecke & G.A. Meagher, 2008. "Modelling the Economic Effects of Population Ageing," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-172, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    3. Shah, C & Burke, G, 2005. "Skills Shortages: Concepts, Measurement and Policy Responses," Australian Bulletin of Labour, National Institute of Labour Studies, vol. 31(1), pages 44-71.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jouko Kinnunen & Juha Honkatukia & Juss Ahokas, 2012. "Regional effects of curbing future deficits– alternative ways to respond to increasing municipal expenditures," ERSA conference papers ersa12p174, European Regional Science Association.
    2. Lisenkova, Katerina & Mérette, Marcel & Wright, Robert, 2013. "Population ageing and the labour market: Modelling size and age-specific effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 981-989.
    3. Mariana BALAN & Rodica Perciun, 2016. "Analysis Of The Macroeconomic Effects Of Population Aging In Romania Using Non-Linear Models," Internal Auditing and Risk Management, Athenaeum University of Bucharest, vol. 41(1), pages 13-24, March.
    4. Jouko Kinnunen & Honkatukia, Juha & Ahokas, Jussi, 2012. "Regional effects of curbing future deficits– alternative ways to respond to increasing municipal expenditures," EcoMod2012 3893, EcoMod.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    computable general equilibrium modelling; population ageing; economic policy;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand

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