Population Ageing and Structural Adjustment
The future effects of population ageing on the Australian economy have been widely canvassed in recent years, most notably in government reports concerned with its budgetary position. On the income side, they focus on how ageing affects labour supply and gross domestic product. On the expenditure side, they focus on how ageing affects various spending categories including education, health and aged care. This paper provides a complementary analysis in that it considers how the structure of the economy is likely to be affected by these influences. In particular, it analyses the effects on 64 skill groups, 81 occupations and 106 industries. The effects are modelled by comparing two economies: a base case in which population ageing takes place, and an alternative (counterfactual) economy in which the age structure of the population remains unchanged. The simulations are conducted using the MONASH applied general equilibrium model of the Australian economy and cover the period from 2004-05 to 2024-25. The paper pays particular attention to the implications of the analysis for economic policy.
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Volume (Year): 11 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
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- James Giesecke & G.A. Meagher, 2008. "Modelling the Economic Effects of Population Ageing," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-172, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
- Shah, C & Burke, G, 2005. "Skills Shortages: Concepts, Measurement and Policy Responses," Australian Bulletin of Labour, National Institute of Labour Studies, vol. 31(1), pages 44-71.
- Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2006. "The Displacement Effect of Labour-Market Programs: MONASH Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 82(s1), pages 26-40, 09.
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