IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Population Ageing and Structural Adjustment


  • Tony Meagher


  • James Giesecke

    (Monash University)


The future effects of population ageing on the Australian economy have been widely canvassed in recent years, most notably in government reports concerned with its budgetary position. On the income side, they focus on how ageing affects labour supply and gross domestic product. On the expenditure side, they focus on how ageing affects various spending categories including education, health and aged care. This paper provides a complementary analysis in that it considers how the structure of the economy is likely to be affected by these influences. In particular, it analyses the effects on 64 skill groups, 81 occupations and 106 industries. The effects are modelled by comparing two economies: a base case in which population ageing takes place, and an alternative (counterfactual) economy in which the age structure of the population remains unchanged. The simulations are conducted using the MONASH applied general equilibrium model of the Australian economy and cover the period from 2004-05 to 2024-25. The paper pays particular attention to the implications of the analysis for economic policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Tony Meagher & James Giesecke, 2008. "Population Ageing and Structural Adjustment," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 11(3), pages 227-247, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:ozl:journl:v:11:y:2008:i:3:p:227-247

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. James Giesecke & G.A. Meagher, 2008. "Modelling the Economic Effects of Population Ageing," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-172, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    2. Shah, C & Burke, G, 2005. "Skills Shortages: Concepts, Measurement and Policy Responses," Australian Bulletin of Labour, National Institute of Labour Studies, vol. 31(1), pages 44-71.
    3. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2006. "The Displacement Effect of Labour-Market Programs: MONASH Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 82(s1), pages 26-40, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Jouko Kinnunen & Juha Honkatukia & Juss Ahokas, 2012. "Regional effects of curbing future deficits– alternative ways to respond to increasing municipal expenditures," ERSA conference papers ersa12p174, European Regional Science Association.
    2. Lisenkova, Katerina & Mérette, Marcel & Wright, Robert, 2013. "Population ageing and the labour market: Modelling size and age-specific effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 981-989.
    3. Mariana BALAN & Rodica Perciun, 2016. "Analysis Of The Macroeconomic Effects Of Population Aging In Romania Using Non-Linear Models," Internal Auditing and Risk Management, Athenaeum University of Bucharest, vol. 41(1), pages 13-24, March.
    4. Jouko Kinnunen & Honkatukia, Juha & Ahokas, Jussi, 2012. "Regional effects of curbing future deficits– alternative ways to respond to increasing municipal expenditures," EcoMod2012 3893, EcoMod.

    More about this item


    Computable General Equilibrium Models; Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models; Demographic Trends and Forecasts; General Migration;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ozl:journl:v:11:y:2008:i:3:p:227-247. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Alan Duncan). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.