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Long-term labour force projections for the 25 EU Member States: A set of data for assessing the economic impact of ageing

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  • Giuseppe Carone

Abstract

This paper presents the methodology and results of labour force projections over the long term (until 2050) for each of the 25 EU Member States. These projections were undertaken in order to provide the background technical inputs for the assessment of the potential economic and fiscal impact of an ageing population. This assessment is carried out in the framework of the EU Economic Policy Committee's Ageing Working Group by projecting public expenditure on pensions, health care, long-term care, unemployment insurance and education.

Suggested Citation

  • Giuseppe Carone, 2005. "Long-term labour force projections for the 25 EU Member States: A set of data for assessing the economic impact of ageing," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 235, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  • Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0235
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    Cited by:

    1. Grech, Aaron George, 2007. "Pension policy in EU25 and its impact on pension benefits," MPRA Paper 33669, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Torben M Andersen, 2010. "Discussion comments on "Immigration: trends and macroeconomic implications"," BIS Papers chapters, in: Globalisation, labour markets and international adjustment - Essays in honour of Palle S Andersen, volume 50, pages 65-68, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris, 2006. "Effekte alternativer Annahmen auf die prognostizierte Erwerbsbevölkerung," IAB Discussion Paper 200619, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    4. Christine Mayrhuber & Gerhard Rünstler & Thomas Url & Werner Eichhorst & Michael J. Kendzia & Maarten Gerard & Connie Nielsen, 2011. "Pension Systems in the EU. Contingent Liabilities and Assets in the Public and Private Sector," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 43938, December.
    5. Cem Baslevent & Hasan Kirmanoglu, 2015. "Quality of government, egalitarianism, and welfare state attitudes," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(4), pages 2877-2887.
    6. Zaidi, Asghar & Grech, Aaron George & Fuchs, Michael, 2006. "Pension policy in EU25 and its possible impact on elderly poverty," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6225, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Nick Adnett & Stephen Hardy, 2007. "The peculiar case of age discrimination: Americanising the European social model?," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 29-41, February.
    8. Michael Fuchs & Mattia Makovec & Asghar Zaidi, 2006. "Transition from Work to Retirement in EU25," CASE Papers case112, Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, LSE.
    9. Christian Dudel, 2009. "The Demographic Dilemma: Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation and Future Growth in Germany 2007-2060," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 158, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    10. Abigail Marie Rapa, "undated". "A cohort approach to project the labour participation rate in Malta," CBM Policy Papers PP/04/2019, Central Bank of Malta.
    11. Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris, 2007. "Einflussfaktoren auf das Erwerbspersonenpotenzial : Demografie und Erwerbsverhalten in Ost- und Westdeutschland," IAB Discussion Paper 200712, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    12. Fritz Breuss & Karl Aiginger & Gunther Tichy & Ewald Walterskirchen, 2006. "Teilstudie 4: Europäische Wirtschaftspolitik: Binnenmarkt, WWU, Lissabon, Erweiterung," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 27443, December.
    13. Fenge, Robert & Peglow, François, 2018. "Decomposition of demographic effects on the german pension system," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 61-76.
    14. Carone, Giuseppe & Denis, Cécile & Mc Morrow, Kieran & Mourre, Gilles & Röger, Werner, 2006. "Long-term labour productivity and GDP projections for the EU25 Member States : a production function framework," MPRA Paper 744, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Thomas Horvath & Helmut Mahringer, 2014. "Einfluss von Bildungsexpansion und Pensionsreformen auf die Erwerbsbeteiligung. Prognose der Erwerbsquote und des Arbeitskräfteangebotes bis 2030," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 87(6), pages 411-426, June.
    16. Jürgen Janger & Johann Scharler & Alfred Stiglbauer, 2006. "The Potential Growth Prospects of the Austrian Economy — Methods and Determinants," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 24-52.
    17. Francesco D'Amuri & Giovanni Peri, 2010. "Immigration and Occupations in Europe," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1026, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
    18. Alina ?tefania CHENIC (CRE?U) & Alin Ioan CRE?U & Lauren?iu TE?CAN, 2018. "A Long Term Analysis of Two Undeniable Realities of the XXI Century - Global Economic Crisis and Demographic Aging," REVISTA DE MANAGEMENT COMPARAT INTERNATIONAL/REVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL COMPARATIVE MANAGEMENT, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 19(2), pages 196-212, May.
    19. Cem Baslevent & Hasan Kirmanoglu, 2015. "A Multilevel Analysis of Individuals' Attitudes Toward Welfare State Responsibilities," Working Papers 941, Economic Research Forum, revised Sep 2015.
    20. Karsten Wasiluk, 2014. "Technology Adoption and Demographic Change," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2014-05, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    21. Almut Balleer & Ramon Gomez-Salvador & Jarkko Turunen, 2014. "Labour force participation across Europe: a cohort-based analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1385-1415, June.
    22. Serguey Ivanov, 2009. "Demographic and economic factors of labour supply: Long-term projections and policy options for France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 7(1), pages 83-122.
    23. Alessandra Caretta & Sara Flisi & Cecilia Frale & Michele Raitano & Simone Tedeschi, 2013. "T-DYMM : the treasury dynamic microsimulation model of the Italian pension system," Working Papers 11, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labour force projections; population projections; cohort method; ageing population; pension reforms; dependency ratios; Carone;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
    • I00 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - General - - - General

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