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Erwerbspersonen- und Arbeitsvolumenprojektionen bis ins Jahr 2060
[Labor force- and work volume-projections until 2060]

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Ehing

    (Forschungszentrum Generationenverträge)

  • Stefan Moog

    (Forschungszentrum Generationenverträge)

Abstract

Zusammenfassung Diese Arbeit analysiert die Auswirkungen des demografischen Wandels auf das Arbeitsangebot und leitet auf Basis verschiedener Szenarien Politikempfehlungen ab, um dem demografisch bedingten Arbeitskräfterückgang zu begegnen. In einem ersten Schritt werden hierbei Erwerbspersonenprojektion anhand eines Kohorten-Komponenten-Modells vorgenommen und durch verschiedene Modellrechnungen ergänzt. Neben einer Abschätzung der Erwerbspersonenzahl bei einer Erhöhung des effektiven Renteneintrittsalters werden die Konsequenzen eines früheren Erwerbseintritts, einer steigenden Erwerbsbeteiligung der über 60-Jährigen, einer verstärkten Erwerbsbeteiligung von Menschen mit Migrationshintergrund sowie einer erhöhten Erwerbsbeteiligung der Frauen untersucht. In einem zweiten Schritt werden die Effekte einer sinkenden Erwerbslosenquote sowie einer steigenden Arbeitszeit je Erwerbstätigen betrachtet, um so Rückschlüsse über das zukünftige Arbeitsvolumen zu ziehen. Unsere Ergebnisse legen nahe, dass eine hinreichende Stabilisierung des jährlich geleisteten Arbeitsvolumens möglich ist, so dass bereits geringe Produktivitätssteigerungen dafür ausreichen werden, das Bruttoinlandsprodukt je Einwohner auf dem heutigen Niveau zu stabilisieren.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Ehing & Stefan Moog, 2013. "Erwerbspersonen- und Arbeitsvolumenprojektionen bis ins Jahr 2060 [Labor force- and work volume-projections until 2060]," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 46(2), pages 167-182, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jlabrs:v:46:y:2013:i:2:d:10.1007_s12651-012-0126-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s12651-012-0126-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jean-Marc Burniaux & Romain Duval & Florence Jaumotte, 2004. "Coping with Ageing: A Dynamic Approach to Quantify the Impact of Alternative Policy Options on Future Labour Supply in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 371, OECD Publishing.
    2. Peter Scherer, 2002. "Age of Withdrawal from the Labour Force in OECD Countries," OECD Labour Market and Social Policy Occasional Papers 49, OECD Publishing.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tobias Maier & Caroline Neuber-Pohl & Anke Mönnig & Gerd Zika & Michael Kalinowski, 2017. "Modelling reallocation processes in long-term labour market projections [Modellierung von Anpassungsprozessen in langfristigen Arbeitsmarktprojektionen]," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 50(1), pages 67-90, August.
    2. Bernd Raffelhüschen & Stefan Seuffert, 2020. "Von der Grundrente zum Lebenserwartungsfaktor [From Basic Pension to Life Expectancy Factor]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(10), pages 774-781, October.
    3. Stefan Fetzer & Stefan Moog, 2021. "Indicators for Measuring Intergenerational Fairness of Social Security Systems—The Case of the German Social Health Insurance," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-18, May.

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