IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jlabrs/v46y2013i2d10.1007_s12651-012-0126-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Erwerbspersonen- und Arbeitsvolumenprojektionen bis ins Jahr 2060
[Labor force- and work volume-projections until 2060]

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Ehing

    (Forschungszentrum Generationenverträge)

  • Stefan Moog

    (Forschungszentrum Generationenverträge)

Abstract

Zusammenfassung Diese Arbeit analysiert die Auswirkungen des demografischen Wandels auf das Arbeitsangebot und leitet auf Basis verschiedener Szenarien Politikempfehlungen ab, um dem demografisch bedingten Arbeitskräfterückgang zu begegnen. In einem ersten Schritt werden hierbei Erwerbspersonenprojektion anhand eines Kohorten-Komponenten-Modells vorgenommen und durch verschiedene Modellrechnungen ergänzt. Neben einer Abschätzung der Erwerbspersonenzahl bei einer Erhöhung des effektiven Renteneintrittsalters werden die Konsequenzen eines früheren Erwerbseintritts, einer steigenden Erwerbsbeteiligung der über 60-Jährigen, einer verstärkten Erwerbsbeteiligung von Menschen mit Migrationshintergrund sowie einer erhöhten Erwerbsbeteiligung der Frauen untersucht. In einem zweiten Schritt werden die Effekte einer sinkenden Erwerbslosenquote sowie einer steigenden Arbeitszeit je Erwerbstätigen betrachtet, um so Rückschlüsse über das zukünftige Arbeitsvolumen zu ziehen. Unsere Ergebnisse legen nahe, dass eine hinreichende Stabilisierung des jährlich geleisteten Arbeitsvolumens möglich ist, so dass bereits geringe Produktivitätssteigerungen dafür ausreichen werden, das Bruttoinlandsprodukt je Einwohner auf dem heutigen Niveau zu stabilisieren.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Ehing & Stefan Moog, 2013. "Erwerbspersonen- und Arbeitsvolumenprojektionen bis ins Jahr 2060 [Labor force- and work volume-projections until 2060]," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 46(2), pages 167-182, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jlabrs:v:46:y:2013:i:2:d:10.1007_s12651-012-0126-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s12651-012-0126-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12651-012-0126-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s12651-012-0126-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jean-Marc Burniaux & Romain Duval & Florence Jaumotte, 2004. "Coping with Ageing: A Dynamic Approach to Quantify the Impact of Alternative Policy Options on Future Labour Supply in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 371, OECD Publishing.
    2. Peter Scherer, 2002. "Age of Withdrawal from the Labour Force in OECD Countries," OECD Labour Market and Social Policy Occasional Papers 49, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tobias Maier & Caroline Neuber-Pohl & Anke Mönnig & Gerd Zika & Michael Kalinowski, 2017. "Modelling reallocation processes in long-term labour market projections [Modellierung von Anpassungsprozessen in langfristigen Arbeitsmarktprojektionen]," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 50(1), pages 67-90, August.
    2. Bernd Raffelhüschen & Stefan Seuffert, 2020. "Von der Grundrente zum Lebenserwartungsfaktor [From Basic Pension to Life Expectancy Factor]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(10), pages 774-781, October.
    3. Stefan Fetzer & Stefan Moog, 2021. "Indicators for Measuring Intergenerational Fairness of Social Security Systems—The Case of the German Social Health Insurance," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-18, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bezdek, Vladimir, 2005. "The Public Pension System in the Czech Republic from the Point of View of Public Finance," Discussion Paper 257, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    2. Giuseppe Carone, 2005. "Long-Term Labour Force Projections for the 25 EU Member States:A set of data for assessing the economic impact of ageing," Labor and Demography 0512006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ehing, Daniel & Moog, Stefan, 2012. "Erwerbspersonen- und Arbeitsvolumenprojektionen bis ins Jahr 2060," FZG Discussion Papers 51, University of Freiburg, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG).
    4. Barabas, György & Jessen, Robin & Schmidt, Torsten & Weyerstraß, Klaus, 2018. "Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2023: Wachstum auf des Messers Schneide," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 69(4), pages 23-38.
    5. Butterworth, Peter & Gill, Sarah C. & Rodgers, Bryan & Anstey, Kaarin J. & Villamil, Elena & Melzer, David, 2006. "Retirement and mental health: Analysis of the Australian national survey of mental health and well-being," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 62(5), pages 1179-1191, March.
    6. Martin O’Brien, 2011. "Discouraged Older Male Workers and the Discouraged Worker Effect," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 14(3), pages 217-235.
    7. A. Bovenberg, 2005. "Balancing Work and Family Life during the Life Course," De Economist, Springer, vol. 153(4), pages 399-423, December.
    8. repec:ilo:ilowps:386486 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Kirsten Stam & Ellen Verbakel & Paul Graaf, 2014. "Do Values Matter? The Impact of Work Ethic and Traditional Gender Role Values on Female Labour Market Supply," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 116(2), pages 593-610, April.
    10. Fenge, Robert & Peglow, François, 2018. "Decomposition of demographic effects on the german pension system," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 61-76.
    11. Mathieu Lefébvre & Pierre Pestieau, 2006. "The Generosity of the Welfare State Towards the Elderly," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Dimitri B. Papadimitriou (ed.), The Distributional Effects of Government Spending and Taxation, chapter 10, pages 289-301, Palgrave Macmillan.
    12. Martin O'BRIEN, 2010. "Older male labour force participation in OECD countries: Pension reform and “the reserve army of labour”," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 149(3), pages 239-259, September.
    13. Pierre Cahuc, 2005. "Le difficile retour en emploi des seniors," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 20(1), pages 3-56.
    14. Robert Fenge & Martin Werding, 2004. "Ageing and the tax implied in public pension schemes: simulations for selected OECD countries," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 25(2), pages 159-200, June.
    15. Serguei Kaniovski & Thomas Url & Helmut Hofer & Viola Garstenauer, 2021. "A Long-run Macroeconomic Model of the Austrian Economy (A-LMM 2.0). New Results (2021)," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 67377, March.
    16. Ulrike Schneider & Birgit Trukeschitz & Richard Mühlmann & Ivo Ponocny, 2013. "“Do I Stay Or Do I Go?”—Job Change And Labor Market Exit Intentions Of Employees Providing Informal Care To Older Adults," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(10), pages 1230-1249, October.
    17. Christian Dudel, 2009. "The Demographic Dilemma: Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation and Future Growth in Germany 2007-2060," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 158, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    18. Schäfer, Holger, 2002. "Lohnversicherung: Ein Vorschlag zur Reform der Arbeitslosenversicherung," IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute, vol. 29(3), pages 11-19.
    19. Jørgen Elmeskov, 2004. "Aging, Public Budgets, and the Need for Policy Reform," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 233-242, May.
    20. Francesco Grigoli & Zsoka Koczan & Petia Topalova, 2021. "A cohort-based analysis of labor force participation for advanced economies," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(2), pages 623-643.
    21. Serguei Kaniovski & Thomas Url & Helmut Hofer & Sandra Müllbacher, 2014. "A Long-run Macroeconomic Model of the Austrian Economy (A-LMM). New Results (2014)," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 47254, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jlabrs:v:46:y:2013:i:2:d:10.1007_s12651-012-0126-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.