IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/b/wfo/wstudy/67377.html
   My bibliography  Save this book

A Long-run Macroeconomic Model of the Austrian Economy (A-LMM 2.0). New Results (2021)

Author

Listed:
  • Serguei Kaniovski
  • Thomas Url

    (Austrian Institute of Economic Research)

  • Helmut Hofer
  • Viola Garstenauer

    (Institute for Advanced Studies)

Abstract

We use an updated version of the Austrian Long-run Macroeconomic Model (A-LMM) for a long-term projection of the Austrian economy until 2075. Our baseline scenario is the input for microsimulation models of the Austrian pension insurance system. A-LMM 2.0 is a neoclassical growth model using demographic indicators to determine TFP-growth, the savings and the inflation rate. The model allows for labour saving technological progress and replicates stylised facts about growing market economies with an ageing population. The current model update incorporates the recent population forecast, information from labour market and national accounts data. Compared to the previous report we expect higher labour market participation rates, lower output growth, and a temporary upswing in inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Serguei Kaniovski & Thomas Url & Helmut Hofer & Viola Garstenauer, 2021. "A Long-run Macroeconomic Model of the Austrian Economy (A-LMM 2.0). New Results (2021)," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 67377, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wstudy:67377
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.wifo.ac.at/wwa/pubid/67377
    File Function: abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Erik Brynjolfsson & Daniel Rock & Chad Syverson, 2021. "The Productivity J-Curve: How Intangibles Complement General Purpose Technologies," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 333-372, January.
    2. Nicholas Bloom & Charles I. Jones & John Van Reenen & Michael Webb, 2020. "Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(4), pages 1104-1144, April.
    3. Vandenbroucke, Guillaume, 2021. "The baby boomers and the productivity slowdown," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    4. Juselius, Mikael & Takáts, Előd, 2018. "The enduring link between demography and inflation," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2018, Bank of Finland.
    5. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M Reinhart & Kenneth S Rogoff, 2020. "Why is the euro punching below its weight?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 35(103), pages 405-460.
    6. Litina, Anastasia & Palivos, Theodore, 2008. "Do Inada conditions imply that production function must be asymptotically Cobb-Douglas? A comment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 498-499, June.
    7. Bart van Ark, 2016. "The Productivity Paradox of the New Digital Economy," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 31, pages 3-18, Fall.
    8. Norbert Berthold & Klaus Gr�ndler, 2015. "The Growth Crisis of Germany: A Blueprint of the Developed Economies," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 195-229, June.
    9. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    10. Josef Baumgartner & Serguei Kaniovski, 2021. "Update der mittelfristigen Prognose der österreichischen Wirtschaft 2021 bis 2025," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 94(4), pages 281-292, April.
    11. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2019. "Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 3-30, Spring.
    12. Peter Huber & Peter Mayerhofer & Stefan Schönfelder & Oliver Fritz & Andrea Kunnert & Dieter Pennerstorfer, 2010. "Teilbericht 5: Zusammenfassung und Handlungsempfehlungen," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 41130, April.
    13. Vegard Skirbekk, 2004. "Age and Individual Productivity: A Literature Survey," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 2(1), pages 133-154.
    14. Abeliansky, Ana Lucia & Prettner, Klaus, 2017. "Automation and demographic change," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168215, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Holston, Kathryn & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2017. "Measuring the natural rate of interest: International trends and determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 59-75.
    16. Michael Danquah & Enrique Moral-Benito & Bazoumana Ouattara, 2011. "TFP growth and its determinants: nonparametrics and model averaging," Working Papers 1104, Banco de España.
    17. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "Recovery from Financial Crises: Evidence from 100 Episodes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 50-55, May.
    18. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    19. Thomas Lindh & Bo Malmberg, 1999. "Age structure effects and growth in the OECD, 1950-1990," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 12(3), pages 431-449.
    20. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    21. Barelli, Paulo & de Abreu Pessoa, Samuel, 2003. "Inada conditions imply that production function must be asymptotically Cobb-Douglas," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 361-363, December.
    22. T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
    23. Robert J. Gordon, 2015. "Secular Stagnation: A Supply-Side View," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 54-59, May.
    24. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G. & Shapiro, Matthew D., 2001. "Productivity growth in the 1990s: technology, utilization, or adjustment?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 117-165, December.
    25. Thomas Url & Michael Wüger, 2005. "Die Konsumausgaben österreichischer Haushalte im Pensionsalter," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 25746, February.
    26. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2017. "Secular Stagnation? The Effect of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 174-179, May.
    27. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
    28. Elstner, Steffen & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2018. "The German productivity paradox: Facts and explanations," Ruhr Economic Papers 767, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    29. Gust, Christopher & Marquez, Jaime, 2004. "International comparisons of productivity growth: the role of information technology and regulatory practices," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 33-58, February.
    30. Cette, Gilbert & Fernald, John & Mojon, Benoît, 2016. "The pre-Great Recession slowdown in productivity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 3-20.
    31. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Neil R. Mehrotra & Jacob A. Robbins, 2019. "A Model of Secular Stagnation: Theory and Quantitative Evaluation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 1-48, January.
    32. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2018_008 is not listed on IDEAS
    33. Charles I. Jones & Paul M. Romer, 2010. "The New Kaldor Facts: Ideas, Institutions, Population, and Human Capital," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 224-245, January.
    34. James Feyrer, 2007. "Demographics and Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 100-109, February.
    35. Etienne Gagnon & Benjamin K. Johannsen & David López-Salido, 2021. "Understanding the New Normal: The Role of Demographics," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(2), pages 357-390, June.
    36. Dale W. Jorgenson & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2000. "Raising the Speed Limit: U.S. Economic Growth in the Information Age," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(1), pages 125-236.
    37. Thomas Lindh & Bo Malmberg & Thieß Petersen, 2010. "Die ökonomischen Konsequenzen der gesellschaftlichen Alterung," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 90(1), pages 54-63, January.
    38. Kurt G. Lunsford & Kenneth D. West, 2019. "Some Evidence on Secular Drivers of US Safe Real Rates," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 113-139, October.
    39. Charles Goodhart & Manoj Pradhan, 2020. "The Great Demographic Reversal," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 436-445, October.
    40. Thomas Url & Serguei Kaniovski, 2019. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Ageing and Directed Technological Change," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 62267, April.
    41. Erik Brynjolfsson & Lorin M. Hitt, 2000. "Beyond Computation: Information Technology, Organizational Transformation and Business Performance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 23-48, Fall.
    42. Claus Brand & Marcin Bielecki & Adrian Penalver, 2019. "The natural rate of interest: estimates, drivers, and challenges to monetary policy," NBP Working Papers 308, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    43. Peter Scherer, 2002. "Age of Withdrawal from the Labour Force in OECD Countries," OECD Labour Market and Social Policy Occasional Papers 49, OECD Publishing.
    44. James D. Hamilton & Ethan S. Harris & Jan Hatzius & Kenneth D. West, 2016. "The Equilibrium Real Funds Rate: Past, Present, and Future," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 660-707, November.
    45. Martin Werding & Klaus Gründler & Benjamin Läpple & Robert Lehmann & Martin Mosler & Niklas Potrafke, 2020. "Modellrechnungen für den Fünften Tragfähigkeitsbericht des BMF," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 111, October.
    46. Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & Spitzer, Martin, 2021. "Deep recessions, slowing productivity and missing (dis-)inflation in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    47. F. A. Lutz, 1961. "The Theory of Capital," International Economic Association Series, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-08452-4 edited by D. C. Hague, December.
    48. Brand, Claus & Bielecki, Marcin & Penalver, Adrian, 2018. "The natural rate of interest: estimates, drivers, and challenges to monetary policy JEL Classification: E52, E43," Occasional Paper Series 217, European Central Bank.
    49. Thomas URL & Josef BAUMGARTNER & Helmut HOFER & Serguei KANIOVSKI & Andreas U. SCHUH, 2010. "A Long-run Macroeconomic Model of the Austrian Economy (A-LMM)," EcoMod2004 330600143, EcoMod.
    50. Serguei Kaniovski & Thomas Url & Helmut Hofer & Sandra Müllbacher, 2014. "A Long-run Macroeconomic Model of the Austrian Economy (A-LMM). New Results (2014)," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 47254, February.
    51. Josef Baumgartner & Helmut Hofer & Serguei Kaniovski & Ulrich Schuh & Thomas Url, 2004. "A Long-run Macroeconomic Model of the Austrian Economy (A-LMM). Model Documentation and Simulations," WIFO Working Papers 224, WIFO.
    52. Joel Mokyr & Chris Vickers & Nicolas L. Ziebarth, 2015. "The History of Technological Anxiety and the Future of Economic Growth: Is This Time Different?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 31-50, Summer.
    53. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    54. Serguei Kaniovski & Thomas Url & Helmut Hofer & Sandra Müllbacher, 2013. "A Long-run Macroeconomic Model of the Austrian Economy (A-LMM). New Results," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 46830, April.
    55. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    56. Nicholas Kaldor, 1961. "Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth," International Economic Association Series, in: D. C. Hague (ed.), The Theory of Capital, chapter 0, pages 177-222, Palgrave Macmillan.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Truger, Achim & Wieland, Volker, 2019. "Den Strukturwandel meistern. Jahresgutachten 2019/20 [Dealing with Structural Change. Annual Report 2019/20]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201920.
    2. Goldin, Ian & Koutroumpis, Pantelis & Lafond, François & Winkler, Julian, 2020. "Why is productivity slowing down?," MPRA Paper 99172, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Amavilah, Voxi Heinrich, 2018. "Endogenous constraints, coefficients of economic distance, and economic performance of African countries – An exploratory essay," MPRA Paper 90065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Martin Fleming, 2021. "Productivity Growth and Capital Deepening in the Fourth Industrial Revolution," Working Papers 010, The Productivity Institute.
    5. Arthur Jacobs & Freddy Heylen, 2021. "Demographic change, secular stagnation and inequality: automation as a blessing?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 21/1030, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    6. Amavilah, Voxi Heinrich, 2014. "Human Knowledge and a Commonsensical Measure of Human Capital: A Proposal," MPRA Paper 57670, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Amavilah, Voxi Heinrich, 2014. "Knowledge = Technology + Human Capital and the Lucas and Romer Production Functions," MPRA Paper 58847, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. van de Klundert, T.C.M.J. & Smulders, J.A., 1991. "Reconstructing growth theory : A survey," Other publications TiSEM 19355c51-17eb-4d5d-aa66-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    9. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:2:y:2002:i:1:p:1-15 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Jacopo Bonchi & Francesco Simone Lucidi, 2020. "How Low Interest Rates Discern the Bubbles Nature: Leveraged vs Unleveraged Bubble," Working Papers 12/20, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
    11. Aykut Kibritçioglu, 2002. "On the Smithian origins of "new" trade and growth theories," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 2(1), pages 1-15.
    12. Charles I. Jones & Paul M. Romer, 2010. "The New Kaldor Facts: Ideas, Institutions, Population, and Human Capital," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 224-245, January.
    13. Jones, C.I., 2016. "The Facts of Economic Growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 3-69, Elsevier.
    14. Giovanna Ciaffi & Matteo Deleidi & Stefano Di Bucchianico, 2022. "Stagnation despite ongoing innovation: Is R&D expenditure composition a missing link? An empirical analysis for the US (1948-2019)," Department of Economics University of Siena 877, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    15. Jakub Growiec, 2019. "The Hardware–Software Model: A New Conceptual Framework of Production, R&D, and Growth with AI," Working Paper series 19-18, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    16. repec:gdk:wpaper:67 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Ekaterina Ponomareva & Alexandra Bozhechkova & Alexandr Knobel, 2012. "Factors of Economic Growth," Published Papers 172, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2013.
    18. Andrea Kunnert & Oliver Fritz & Dieter Pennerstorfer & Gerhard Streicher & Birgit Aigner & Thomas Döring, 2010. "Teilbericht 3: Alterung und regionale Wettbewerbsfähigkeit," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 41128, April.
    19. Robert M. Solow, 2000. "The neoclassical theory of growth and distribution," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 53(215), pages 349-381.
    20. Lukasz Rachel & Lawrence H. Summers, 2019. "On Secular Stagnation in the Industrialized World," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 1-76.
    21. Brand, Claus & Bielecki, Marcin & Penalver, Adrian, 2018. "The natural rate of interest: estimates, drivers, and challenges to monetary policy JEL Classification: E52, E43," Occasional Paper Series 217, European Central Bank.
    22. Del Negro, Marco & Giannone, Domenico & Giannoni, Marc P. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2019. "Global trends in interest rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 248-262.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wfo:wstudy:67377. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Florian Mayr (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/wifooat.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.