IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/usi/wpaper/877.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Stagnation despite ongoing innovation: Is R&D expenditure composition a missing link? An empirical analysis for the US (1948-2019)

Author

Listed:
  • Giovanna Ciaffi
  • Matteo Deleidi
  • Stefano Di Bucchianico

Abstract

Among the explanations for prolonged economic stagnation in advanced economies we find those that highlight the role of technical progress and its weakening impact on potential growth. Several contributions stress the apparent paradox of technological development and innovation going hand in hand with slowing labour productivity growth. This discourse is in turn linked to numerous factors, among which the pattern of research productivity, that appears to be falling in the last decades. The contribution of this article is to analyse the role of innovation expenditures composition, and its effects on productivity. We study whether productivity stagnation can be (partially) explained by the continuously falling ratio between public and private expenditures in innovation in the USA. We carry out an SVAR analysis of the US case during the period 1948Q1-2019Q4. In the empirical exercise we estimate the effect of public expenditure in innovation on productivity, private R&D, and GDP, comparing the outcomes with those relative to private expenditure in innovation. According to our results, the public type of innovation spending exhibits a positive effect on productivity and GDP, and it has a greater effect than private expenditure in innovation. In addition to this, public expenditure in innovation exerts a strong crowding-in effect on private investment in R&D. Therefore, according to the evidence we find, we maintain that the focus on the prolonged and sustained fall of public expenditure in innovation in relation to private expenditure of the same type helps in explaining lasting stagnation

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanna Ciaffi & Matteo Deleidi & Stefano Di Bucchianico, 2022. "Stagnation despite ongoing innovation: Is R&D expenditure composition a missing link? An empirical analysis for the US (1948-2019)," Department of Economics University of Siena 877, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
  • Handle: RePEc:usi:wpaper:877
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repec.deps.unisi.it/quaderni/877.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-27, May.
    2. John G. Fernald & Charles I. Jones, 2014. "The Future of US Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 44-49, May.
    3. Nicholas Bloom & Charles I. Jones & John Van Reenen & Michael Webb, 2020. "Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(4), pages 1104-1144, April.
    4. Nicholas Bloom & John Van Reenen & Heidi Williams, 2019. "A toolkit of policies to promote innovation," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 10.
    5. Archibugi, Daniele & Filippetti, Andrea, 2018. "The retreat of public research and its adverse consequences on innovation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 97-111.
    6. Thomas H.W. Ziesemer, 2021. "Mission-oriented R&D and growth," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 460-477, January.
    7. Thomas H. W. Ziesemer, 2022. "Foreign R&D spillovers to the USA and strategic reactions," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(37), pages 4274-4291, August.
    8. Luc Soete & Bart Verspagen & Thomas H W Ziesemer, 2022. "Economic impact of public R&D: an international perspective [The governance and performance of universities: evidence from Europe and the US]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(1), pages 1-18.
    9. Enrico Moretti & Claudia Steinwender & John Van Reenen, 2025. "The Intellectual Spoils of War? Defense R&D, Productivity, and International Spillovers," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 107(1), pages 14-27, January.
    10. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2019. "Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 3-30, Spring.
    11. Lawrence H. Summers, 2015. "Demand Side Secular Stagnation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 60-65, May.
    12. Bernstein, Jeffrey I. & Mohnen, Pierre, 1998. "International R&D spillovers between U.S. and Japanese R&D intensive sectors," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 315-338, April.
    13. Robert J. Gordon, 2015. "Secular Stagnation: A Supply-Side View," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 54-59, May.
    14. Barry Eichengreen, 2015. "Secular Stagnation: The Long View," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 66-70, May.
    15. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2017. "Secular Stagnation? The Effect of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 174-179, May.
    16. Pallante, Gianluca & Russo, Emanuele & Roventini, Andrea, 2023. "Does public R&D funding crowd-in private R&D investment? Evidence from military R&D expenditures for US states," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(8).
    17. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Manuel Lancastre & Lawrence H. Summers, 2019. "Aging, Output Per Capita, and Secular Stagnation," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 1(3), pages 325-342, December.
    18. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Neil R. Mehrotra & Jacob A. Robbins, 2019. "A Model of Secular Stagnation: Theory and Quantitative Evaluation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 1-48, January.
    19. John Van Reenen, 2021. "Innovation policy to restore American prosperity," CentrePiece - The magazine for economic performance 599, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    20. Filippetti, Andrea & Vezzani, Antonio, 2022. "The political economy of public research, or why some governments commit to research more than others," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    21. Robert J. Gordon, 2012. "Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds," NBER Working Papers 18315, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. THW Ziesemer, 2020. "Japan’s Productivity and GDP Growth: The Role of Private, Public and Foreign R&D 1967–2017," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-25, September.
    23. Patrizio Pagano & Massimo Sbracia, 2018. "The Productivity Slowdown and the Secular Stagnation Hypothesis," Financial and Monetary Policy Studies, in: Laurent Ferrara & Ignacio Hernando & Daniela Marconi (ed.), International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis, pages 17-41, Springer.
    24. Robert J. Gordon, 2014. "The Demise of U.S. Economic Growth: Restatement, Rebuttal, and Reflections," NBER Working Papers 19895, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Nicholas Kaldor, 1961. "Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth," International Economic Association Series, in: D. C. Hague (ed.), The Theory of Capital, chapter 0, pages 177-222, Palgrave Macmillan.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Carvelli, Gianni & Bartoloni, Eleonora & Baussola, Maurizio, 2024. "Monetary policy and innovation in Europe: An SVAR approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    2. Dumont, Michel, 2022. "Public support to business research and development in Belgium: fourth evaluation," MPRA Paper 115418, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Di Bucchianico, Stefano, 2020. "Discussing Secular Stagnation: A case for freeing good ideas from theoretical constraints?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 288-297.
    2. Thomas H. W. Ziesemer, 2022. "Foreign R&D spillovers to the USA and strategic reactions," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(37), pages 4274-4291, August.
    3. José Alves & Sandro Morgado, 2024. "Secular stagnation: Is immigration part of the solution?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 1426-1449, March.
    4. Serguei Kaniovski & Thomas Url & Helmut Hofer & Viola Garstenauer, 2021. "A Long-run Macroeconomic Model of the Austrian Economy (A-LMM 2.0). New Results (2021)," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 67377.
    5. Thomas H. W. Ziesemer, 2024. "Mission-oriented R&D and growth of Japan 1988–2016: a comparison with private and public R&D," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 218-247, February.
    6. Andrea Borsato, 2021. "Does the Secular Stagnation hypothesis match with data? Evidence from USA," Working Papers of BETA 2021-11, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    7. Dumont, Michel, 2022. "Public support to business research and development in Belgium: fourth evaluation," MPRA Paper 115418, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Klaus Gründler & Niklas Potrafke, 2023. "Population Aging, Retirement, and Aggregate Productivity," CESifo Working Paper Series 10594, CESifo.
    9. Basso, Henrique S. & Jimeno, Juan F., 2021. "From secular stagnation to robocalypse? Implications of demographic and technological changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 833-847.
    10. Gilbert Cette & Rémy Lecat & Carole Ly-Marin, 2017. "Long-term growth and productivity projections in advanced countries," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2016(1), pages 71-90.
    11. Daniele, Vittorio, 2015. "Una stagnazione secolare? Italia, Giappone, Stati Uniti, 1950-2015 [Towards a secular stagnation? Italy, Japan, United States, 1950-2015]," MPRA Paper 69997, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Schubert, Torben & Jäger, Angela & Türkeli, Serdar & Visentin, Fabiana, 2020. "Addressing the productivity paradox with big data: A literature review and adaptation of the CDM econometric model," MERIT Working Papers 2020-050, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    13. Manuel David Cruz & Daniele Tavani, 2022. "Secular Stagnation: A Classical-Marxian View," Working Papers PKWP2229, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    14. Emerson, Patrick & Knabb, Shawn, 2020. "A demographic headwind: Will an aging society reduce the real interest rate and potential growth?," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    15. Guido Baldi & Patrick Harms, 2015. "Productivity Growth, Investment, and Secular Stagnation," DIW Roundup: Politik im Fokus 83, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    16. Davide Gualerzi, 2020. "Secular Stagnation Revisited," Bulletin of Political Economy, Bulletin of Political Economy, vol. 14(1), pages 55-79, June.
    17. Thomas Ziesemer, 2023. "Labour-augmenting technical change data for alternative elasticities of substitution: growth, slowdown, and distribution dynamics," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 449-475, May.
    18. Ian Goldin & Pantelis Koutroumpis & François Lafond & Julian Winkler, 2024. "Why Is Productivity Slowing Down?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 196-268, March.
    19. Andrea Borsato, 2021. "An Agent-based Model for Secular Stagnation in the USA: Theory and Empirical Evidence," LEM Papers Series 2021/09, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    20. Cova, Pietro & Notarpietro, Alessandro & Pagano, Patrizio & Pisani, Massimiliano, 2021. "Secular Stagnation, R&D, Public Investment, And Monetary Policy: A Global-Model Perspective," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(5), pages 1267-1287, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Secular Stagnation; public and private R&D; innovation policy; research productivity; productivity growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:usi:wpaper:877. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Fabrizio Becatti (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/desieit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.