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The Productivity Slowdown and the Secular Stagnation Hypothesis

In: International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Patrizio Pagano

    (Bank of Italy
    World Bank)

  • Massimo Sbracia

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

The recent dismal productivity growth in the U.S. and in the global economy has been seen as evidence of a potential return to a period of secular stagnation. Focusing on the U.S.—a proxy for the frontier economy—we consider a standard decomposition of the different sources of post-World War II growth of GDP per capita, and review existing projections. In the next 20–50 years, lower contributions of hours worked and education will negatively affect U.S. economic growth. However, total factor productivity—which some warn will also continue to stagnate—will be key. After showing that similar warnings have been issued after all deep recessions, we argue that such pessimistic predictions were consistently misguided—not because they were built on erroneous theories or data, nor because they failed to predict the discovery of new technologies, but because they underestimated the potential of the technologies that already existed. These findings suggest that we should not make the same mistake today by undervaluing the future effects of current information technology.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrizio Pagano & Massimo Sbracia, 2018. "The Productivity Slowdown and the Secular Stagnation Hypothesis," Financial and Monetary Policy Studies, in: Laurent Ferrara & Ignacio Hernando & Daniela Marconi (ed.), International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis, pages 17-41, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:fimchp:978-3-319-79075-6_2
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-79075-6_2
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Manuel David Cruz & Daniele Tavani, 2022. "Secular Stagnation: A Classical-Marxian View," Working Papers PKWP2229, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    2. Di Bucchianico, Stefano, 2020. "Discussing Secular Stagnation: A case for freeing good ideas from theoretical constraints?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 288-297.
    3. Giovanna Ciaffi & Matteo Deleidi & Stefano Di Bucchianico, 2022. "Stagnation despite ongoing innovation: Is R&D expenditure composition a missing link? An empirical analysis for the US (1948-2019)," Department of Economics University of Siena 877, Department of Economics, University of Siena.

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