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From Secular Stagnation to Robocalypse? Implications of Demographic and Technological Changes

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  • Jimeno, Juan Francisco
  • Basso, Henrique S.

Abstract

Demographic changes and a new wave of innovation and automation are two main structural trends shaping the macroeconomy in the next decades. We present a general equilibrium model with a tractable life-cycle structure that allows the investigation of the main transmission mechanisms by which demography and technology affect economic growth. Due to a trade-off between innovation and automation, lower fertility and population ageing lead to a reduction in GDP per capita growth and the labour income share. Assuming different labour market configurations and scenarios for the integration of robots in economic activity only partially compensate for these effects.

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  • Jimeno, Juan Francisco & Basso, Henrique S., 2019. "From Secular Stagnation to Robocalypse? Implications of Demographic and Technological Changes," CEPR Discussion Papers 14092, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14092
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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