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From Secular Stagnation to Robocalypse? Implications of Demographic and Technological Changes

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  • Basso, Henrique S.
  • Jimeno, Juan F

Abstract

Demographic changes and a new wave of innovation and automation are two main structural trends shaping the macroeconomy in the next decades. We present a general equilibrium model with a tractable life-cycle structure that allows the investigation of the main transmission mechanisms by which demography and technology affect economic growth. Due to a trade-off between innovation and automation, lower fertility and population ageing lead to a reduction in GDP per capita growth and the labour income share. Assuming different labour market configurations and scenarios for the integration of robots in economic activity only partially compensate for these effects.

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  • Basso, Henrique S. & Jimeno, Juan F, 2019. "From Secular Stagnation to Robocalypse? Implications of Demographic and Technological Changes," CEPR Discussion Papers 14092, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14092
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    Cited by:

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    2. Juan J. Dolado & Florentino Felgueroso & Juan F. Jimeno, 2021. "Past, present and future of the Spanish labour market: when the pandemic meets the megatrends," Applied Economic Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 29(85), pages 21-41, January.
    3. d’Albis, Hippolyte & Boubtane, Ekrame & Coulibaly, Dramane, 2021. "Demographic changes and the labor income share," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    4. Dolado, Juan J. & Felgueroso, Florentino & Jimeno, Juan F, 2020. "The Spanish Labour Market at the Crossroads: Covidâ? 19 meets the Megatrends," CEPR Discussion Papers 15452, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Andrea Papetti, 2021. "Population aging, relative prices and capital flows across the globe," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1333, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Acocella, Nicola, 2021. "Stagnation," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 74(2), pages 121-140.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    automation; Innovation; Population Ageing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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