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From Secular Stagnation to Robocalypse? Implications of Demographic and Technological Changes

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  • Basso, Henrique S.
  • Jimeno, Juan F

Abstract

Demographic changes and a new wave of innovation and automation are two main structural trends shaping the macroeconomy in the next decades. We present a general equilibrium model with a tractable life-cycle structure that allows the investigation of the main transmission mechanisms by which demography and technology affect economic growth. Due to a trade-off between innovation and automation, lower fertility and population ageing lead to a reduction in GDP per capita growth and the labour income share. Assuming different labour market configurations and scenarios for the integration of robots in economic activity only partially compensate for these effects.

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  • Basso, Henrique S. & Jimeno, Juan F, 2019. "From Secular Stagnation to Robocalypse? Implications of Demographic and Technological Changes," CEPR Discussion Papers 14092, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14092
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    Cited by:

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    2. José L. Torres & Pablo Casas, 2020. "Automation, Automatic Capital Returns, and the Functional Income Distribution," Working Papers 2020-02, Universidad de Málaga, Department of Economic Theory, Málaga Economic Theory Research Center.
    3. Stähler, Nikolai, 2021. "The Impact of Aging and Automation on the Macroeconomy and Inequality," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    4. Juan J. Dolado & Florentino Felgueroso & Juan F. Jimeno, 2021. "Past, present and future of the Spanish labour market: when the pandemic meets the megatrends," Applied Economic Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 29(85), pages 21-41, January.
    5. Hao, Yu & Zhang, Zong-Yong & Yang, Chuxiao & Wu, Haitao, 2021. "Does structural labor change affect CO2 emissions? Theoretical and empirical evidence from China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    6. d’Albis, Hippolyte & Boubtane, Ekrame & Coulibaly, Dramane, 2021. "Demographic changes and the labor income share," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    7. Dolado, Juan J. & Felgueroso, Florentino & Jimeno, Juan F, 2020. "The Spanish Labour Market at the Crossroads: Covidâ? 19 meets the Megatrends," CEPR Discussion Papers 15452, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Andrea Papetti, 2021. "Population aging, relative prices and capital flows across the globe," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1333, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Arthur Jacobs, 2022. "Capital-augmenting technical change in the context of untapped automation opportunities," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 22/1046, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    10. Arthur Jacobs & Freddy Heylen, 2021. "Demographic change, secular stagnation and inequality: automation as a blessing?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 21/1030, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    11. Battisti, Michele & Gravina, Antonio Francesco, 2021. "Do robots complement or substitute for older workers?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    12. Acocella, Nicola, 2021. "Stagnation," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 74(2), pages 121-140.
    13. Catarina Peralta & Pedro Mazeda Gil, 2021. "Automation, Education, and Population: Dynamic Effects in an OLG Growth and Fertility Model," CEF.UP Working Papers 2102, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    automation; Innovation; Population Ageing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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