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Automation, education, and population: Dynamic effects in an OLG growth and fertility model

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  • Peralta, Catarina
  • Gil, Pedro Mazeda

Abstract

We address two main structural changes occurring in developed countries: the rise of automation and population ageing. Using an R&D-based growth model under an OLG framework, we consider education and fertility decisions, as well as automation in the production process, to explore the interplay between population ageing and automation. The results reveal dynamics that align with the US trends from 1970 to 2021. In particular, in response to increasing real wages, the model captures a decline in the fertility rate for low-skilled workers but an increase for high-skilled workers, consistent with observed data. We also analyze the model’s response to shocks related to automation and demographics (fertility vs. longevity), as well as policy instruments designed to reduce inequality.

Suggested Citation

  • Peralta, Catarina & Gil, Pedro Mazeda, 2025. "Automation, education, and population: Dynamic effects in an OLG growth and fertility model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:234:y:2025:i:c:s0167268125001222
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107002
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ageing; Automation; Economic growth; Education; Endogenous fertility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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