IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/124598.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Aging and its macroeconomic consequences: An inverted U-shaped endogenous economic growth

Author

Listed:
  • Hagiwara, Takefumi

Abstract

This study theoretically analyzes population aging and its impacts on economic growth, wealth inequality, and fiscal sustainability. We introduce lifetime uncertainty to the overlapping generations model with heterogeneous households with varied intertemporal preferences, where unintended bequests caused by death are inherited by offspring. Aging can have both positive and negative impacts on economic growth and fiscal sustainability: saving-enhancing effects based on the life cycle theory and wealth-depletion effects caused by extended longevity. When aging advances, saving-enhancing effects are offset by wealth-depletion effects, which eventually outweigh the former. The results show an “inverted U-shaped” relationship between life expectancy and economic growth rate, or fiscal sustainability. Numerical simulation reveals that aging can produce a trade-off between economic growth and wealth inequality. We also show that a rise in deficit or government expenditure ratios exacerbate fiscal instability, economic growth, and wealth inequality under certain conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Hagiwara, Takefumi, 2025. "Aging and its macroeconomic consequences: An inverted U-shaped endogenous economic growth," MPRA Paper 124598, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:124598
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/124598/1/MPRA_paper_124598.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2010. "Implications of population ageing for economic growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(4), pages 583-612, Winter.
    3. Matteo Cervellati & Uwe Sunde, 2011. "Life expectancy and economic growth: the role of the demographic transition," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 99-133, June.
    4. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson, 2014. "Disease and Development: A Reply to Bloom, Canning, and Fink," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(6), pages 1367-1375.
    5. Moshe Hazan & Hosny Zoabi, 2006. "Does longevity cause growth? A theoretical critique," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 363-376, December.
    6. R. Anton Braun & Daisuke Ikeda & Douglas H. Joines, 2009. "The Saving Rate In Japan: Why It Has Fallen And Why It Will Remain Low," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(1), pages 291-321, February.
    7. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Bryan Graham, 2003. "Longevity and Life‐cycle Savings," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 319-338, September.
    8. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2017. "Secular Stagnation? The Effect of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 174-179, May.
    9. Pecchenino, Rowena A & Pollard, Patricia S, 1997. "The Effects of Annuities, Bequests, and Aging in an Overlapping Generations Model of Endogenous Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 26-46, January.
    10. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Ryder, Harl E. & Weil, David N., 2000. "Mortality decline, human capital investment, and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 1-23, June.
    11. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Manuel Lancastre & Lawrence H. Summers, 2019. "Aging, Output Per Capita, and Secular Stagnation," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 1(3), pages 325-342, December.
    12. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2018. "The Race between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares, and Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(6), pages 1488-1542, June.
    13. Nicole Maestas & Kathleen J. Mullen & David Powell, 2023. "The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force, and Productivity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 306-332, April.
    14. Keiya Minamimura & Daisihin Yasui, 2019. "From Physical to Human Capital Accumulation: Effects of Mortality Changes," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 34, pages 103-120, October.
    15. Daron Acemoglu, 2010. "When Does Labor Scarcity Encourage Innovation?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(6), pages 1037-1078.
    16. Casper Worm Hansen & Lars Lønstrup, 2015. "The Rise in Life Expectancy and Economic Growth in the 20th Century," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(584), pages 838-852, May.
    17. Futagami, Koichi & Nakajima, Tetsuya, 2001. "Population Aging and Economic Growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 31-44, January.
    18. Teles, Vladimir K. & Cesar Mussolini, Caio, 2014. "Public debt and the limits of fiscal policy to increase economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 1-15.
    19. Pedro R.D. Bom & Jenny E. Ligthart, 2014. "What Have We Learned From Three Decades Of Research On The Productivity Of Public Capital?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5), pages 889-916, December.
    20. Michael Bräuninger, 2005. "The Budget Deficit, Public Debt, and Endogenous Growth," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 7(5), pages 827-840, December.
    21. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2022. "Demographics and Automation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(1), pages 1-44.
    22. Hagiwara, Takefumi, 2024. "Debt-financed fiscal policy, public capital, and endogenous growth," MPRA Paper 120201, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Klaus Prettner, 2013. "Population aging and endogenous economic growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(2), pages 811-834, April.
    24. Futagami, Koichi & Sunaga, Miho, 2022. "Risk aversion and longevity in an overlapping generations model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    25. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson, 2007. "Disease and Development: The Effect of Life Expectancy on Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(6), pages 925-985, December.
    26. Ronald Lee & Andrew Mason, 2010. "Some macroeconomic aspects of global population aging," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 47(1), pages 151-172, March.
    27. Matteo Cervellati & Uwe Sunde, 2005. "Human Capital Formation, Life Expectancy, and the Process of Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1653-1672, December.
    28. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Yilmaz, Devrim, 2017. "The Simple Dynamics Of Public Debt With Productive Public Goods," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(4), pages 1059-1095, June.
    29. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    30. Maebayashi, Noritaka & Konishi, Kunihiko, 2021. "Sustainability Of Public Debt And Inequality In A General Equilibrium Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(4), pages 874-895, June.
    31. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 759-784, August.
    32. Real Arai, 2011. "Productive Government Expenditure and Fiscal Sustainability," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 67(4), pages 327-351, December.
    33. David Evans & Haluk Sezer, 2004. "Social discount rates for six major countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(9), pages 557-560.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Futagami, Koichi & Sunaga, Miho, 2022. "Risk aversion and longevity in an overlapping generations model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    2. Kuhn, Michael & Prettner, Klaus, 2016. "Growth and welfare effects of health care in knowledge-based economies," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 100-119.
    3. Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2023. "Rising Longevity, Increasing the Retirement Age, and the Consequences for Knowledge‐based Long‐run Growth," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(357), pages 39-64, January.
    4. Annarita Baldanzi & Klaus Prettner & Paul Tscheuschner, 2019. "Longevity-induced vertical innovation and the tradeoff between life and growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(4), pages 1293-1313, October.
    5. Bloom, David E. & Kuhn, Michael & Prettner, Klaus, 2018. "Health and Economic Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 11939, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Kotschy, Rainer & Prettner, Klaus & Schünemann, Johannes, 2024. "Health and economic growth: Reconciling the micro and macro evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    7. Gehringer, Agnieszka & Prettner, Klaus, 2019. "Longevity And Technological Change," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 1471-1503, June.
    8. Tscheuschner, Paul, 2021. "Endogenous life expectancy and R&D-based economic growth," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 01-2021, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    9. Casper Worm Hansen & Holger Strulik, 2017. "Life expectancy and education: evidence from the cardiovascular revolution," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 421-450, December.
    10. Lei He & Zhengqi Wang, 2023. "The interaction effects of rising life expectancy and the public pension burden on aggregate savings and economic growth," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 22(2), pages 229-250, May.
    11. Belyakov, A.O. & Kurbatskiy, A.N. & Prettner, K., 2021. "The growth effects of anticipated versus unanticipated population aging," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    12. Li, Zeguang & Huang, Yuanbiao & Hou, Keqiang, 2024. "Impacts of population aging on bank loan portfolios: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    13. Klaus Prettner, 2013. "Population aging and endogenous economic growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(2), pages 811-834, April.
    14. Peralta, Catarina & Gil, Pedro Mazeda, 2025. "Automation, education, and population: Dynamic effects in an OLG growth and fertility model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    15. Michael Bar & Oksana Leukhina, 2010. "The role of mortality in the transmission of knowledge," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 291-321, December.
    16. David E. Bloom & Alex Khoury & Vadim Kufenko & Klaus Prettner, 2021. "Spurring Economic Growth through Human Development: Research Results and Guidance for Policymakers," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(2), pages 377-409, June.
    17. Abeliansky, Ana Lucia & Prettner, Klaus, 2023. "Automation and population growth: Theory and cross-country evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 345-358.
    18. Keiya Minamimura & Daisihin Yasui, 2019. "From Physical to Human Capital Accumulation: Effects of Mortality Changes," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 34, pages 103-120, October.
    19. Mehmet Top & Songul Cinaroglu, 2021. "Cluster analysis of health systems in Europe according to life expectancy at birth," International Journal of Health Planning and Management, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(6), pages 2162-2181, November.
    20. Yu Liu & Mingde Jia, 2023. "The Impact of Population Aging on Green Innovation: An Empirical Analysis Based on Inter-Provincial Data in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-18, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Population Aging; Secular Stagnation; Inequality; Fiscal Sustainability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:124598. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.