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Intelligent technologies and productivity spillovers: Evidence from the Fourth Industrial Revolution

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  • Venturini, Francesco

Abstract

The take-off of a Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) is at the core of a vibrant academic debate with an increasingly larger number of studies investigating the effects of the latest generation of new technologies, namely artificial intelligence (AI), flexible automation, additive manufacturing, big data, etc., — hereinafter defined as intelligent technologies. A great deal of attention has been paid to the effects associated with the adoption of such transformative technologies, whilst the impact associated with their production, and in particular with the development of related technological knowledge, has remained almost unexplored. Using patent data at country level for a sample of industrialized economies between 1990 and 2014, this paper seeks to quantify the productivity spillovers associated with intelligent technologies. We show that the elasticity of aggregate productivity to the stock of knowledge related to intelligent technologies is statistically significant and economically important, ranging between 0.01 and 0.06. Since these innovations have increased by a factor of 3 from the early 1990s, based on our most conservative estimates, knowledge related to intelligent technologies would account for a range between 3 and 8% of observed productivity change. We also document that the time pattern of productivity spillovers associated with intelligent technology patents may conform to a productivity J-curve, corroborating the view that such innovations could behave as General Purpose Technologies (GPTs).

Suggested Citation

  • Venturini, Francesco, 2022. "Intelligent technologies and productivity spillovers: Evidence from the Fourth Industrial Revolution," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 220-243.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:194:y:2022:i:c:p:220-243
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2021.12.018
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    7. Parteka, Aleksandra & Kordalska, Aleksandra, 2023. "Artificial intelligence and productivity: global evidence from AI patent and bibliometric data," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Intelligent technologies; Productivity spillovers; General purpose technologies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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