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AI as the next GPT: a Political-Economy Perspective

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  • Trajtenberg, Manuel

Abstract

History suggests that dismal prophecies regarding the impact of great technological advances rarely come to pass. Yet, as many occupations will indeed vanish with the advent of AI as the new General Purpose Technology (GPT), we should search for ways to ameliorate the detrimental effects of AI, and enhance its positive ones, particularly in: (1) education and skills development: need to move away from the centuries-old “factory model†of education, and develop instead skills relevant for an AI-based economy – analytical, creative, interpersonal, and emotional. (2) The professionalization of personal care occupations, particularly in healthcare and education; these are to provide the bulk of future employment growth, yet as performed today involve little training and technology, and confer low wages. New, higher standards and academic requirements should be set for these occupations, which would enable AI to benefit both providers and users. (3) Affect the direction of technical advance – we distinguish between “human-enhancing innovations†(HEI), that magnify and enhance sensory, motoric, and other such human capabilities, and “human-replacing innovations†(HRI), which replace human intervention, and often leave for humans mostly “dumb†jobs. AI-based HEI’s have the potential to unleash a new wave of creativity and productivity, particularly in services, whereas HRI’s might just decrease employment and give rise to unworthy jobs.

Suggested Citation

  • Trajtenberg, Manuel, 2018. "AI as the next GPT: a Political-Economy Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 12721, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12721
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bresnahan, Timothy F. & Trajtenberg, M., 1995. "General purpose technologies 'Engines of growth'?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 83-108, January.
    2. Tim Kautz & James J. Heckman & Ron Diris & Bas ter Weel & Lex Borghans, 2014. "Fostering and Measuring Skills: Improving Cognitive and Non-cognitive Skills to Promote Lifetime Success," OECD Education Working Papers 110, OECD Publishing.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ai; Gpt; Skills;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy

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