IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/regstd/v44y2010i10p1351-1368.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Scotland the Grey: A Linked Demographic-Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis of the Impact of Population Ageing and Decline

Author

Listed:
  • K. Lisenkova
  • P. G. McGregor
  • N. Pappas
  • J. K. Swales
  • K. Turner
  • R. E. Wright

Abstract

Lisenkova K., McGregor P. G., Pappas N., Swales J. K., Turner K. and Wright R. E. Scotland the grey: a linked demographic-computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis of the impact of population ageing and decline, Regional Studies. This paper links a multi-period economic computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling framework with a demographic model to analyse the economic impact on Scotland of its projected ageing and declining population. The model quantifies the effect on aggregate economic variables, such as gross domestic product (GDP), employment and competitiveness, and also on individual sectors. With the principal demographic projections, the fall in population, and particularly working-age population, has a depressing impact on economic activity. By changing the demographic parameters, the impact of increasing net migration, a policy actively being pursued by the Scottish Government, is tracked. However, the required size of the annual net-migration needed to neutralize the adverse natural demographic changes is far higher than the current trends. [image omitted] Lisenkova K., McGregor P. G., Pappas N., Swales J. K., Turner K. et Wright R. E. 'Ecosse la Grise': une analyse de l'impact du vieillissement et de la baisse de la population liant demographie et EGC, Regional Studies. Cet article etablit un lien entre un cadre economique multiperiodique de modelisation d'Equilibre General Calculable (EGC) et un modele demographique pour analyser l'impact economique sur l'Ecosse du vieillissement et de la baisse prevus de sa population. Le modele en quantifie l'effet sur les variables economiques agregees, telles que le PIB, l'emploi et la competitivite, ainsi que sur des secteurs particuliers. Compte tenu des principales previsions demographiques, la baisse de la population, et en particulier de la population en age de travailler, a un effet de depression de l'activite economique. En modifiant les parametres demographiques, nous suivons l'impact de l'augmentation de la migration nette, une politique qui est activement menee par l'Executif ecossais. Cependant, l'ampleur de la migration nette annuelle necessaire pour neutraliser les changements demographiques naturels prejudiciables est bien superieure aux tendances actuelles. Ecosse Modelisation EGC regionale Population vieillissante Migration Lisenkova K., McGregor P. G., Pappas N., Swales J. K., Turner K. und Wright R. E. Graues Schottland: eine kombinierte demografische und CGE-Analyse der Auswirkungen von Alterung und Bevolkerungsruckgang, Regional Studies. In diesem Beitrag verbinden wir einen periodenubergreifenden okonomischen Modellierrahmen des berechenbaren allgemeinen Gleichgewichts (CGE) mit einem demografischen Modell, um die wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen der prognostizierten Alterung und des Bevolkerungsruckgangs in Schottland zu analysieren. In dem Modell wird die Auswirkung auf kombinierte okonomische Variable wie Bruttoinlandsprodukt, Beschaftigungsniveau und Konkurrenzfahigkeit sowie auch auf einzelne Sektoren quantifiziert. Bei den wichtigsten demografischen Prognosen wirken sich der Bevolkerungsruckgang - insbesondere bei der Bevolkerung im arbeitsfahigen Alter - dampfend auf die Wirtschaftsaktivitat aus. Durch eine Anderung der demografischen Parameter untersuchen wir die Auswirkung einer erhohten Nettomigration, die als politisches Ziel von der schottischen Regierung aktiv verfolgt wird. Allerdings ist zur Neutralisierung der ungunstigen naturlichen Veranderungen in der Demografie eine weitaus umfangreichere jahrliche Nettomigration erforderlich als die der derzeitigen Trends. Schottland Regionalmodell des berechenbaren allgemeinen Gleichgewichts Alternde Bevolkerung Migration Lisenkova K., McGregor P. G., Pappas N., Swales J. K., Turner K. y Wright R. E. La anciana Escocia: analisis demografico segun el modelo CGE del impacto del envejecimiento y disminucion de la poblacion, Regional Studies. En este articulo vinculamos una estructura de un modelo de equilibrio general computable (CGE) de varios periodos con un modelo demografico para analizar el efecto economico en Escocia de su poblacion cada vez mas anciana y cada vez menos numerosa. Este modelo cuantifica el efecto en las variables economicas agregadas, tales como el PIB, el empleo y la competitividad asi como los sectores individuales. Con las principales proyecciones demograficas, la disminucion de poblacion, y especialmente de la poblacion en edad de trabajar, tiene un efecto depresivo en la actividad comercial. Al cambiar los parametros demograficos, hacemos un seguimiento del impacto de una creciente migracion neta, una politica que busca activamente el Gobierno escoces. Sin embargo, el tamano requerido de la migracion neta anual necesaria para neutralizar estos adversos cambios demograficos naturales es muy superior a las tendencias actuales. Escocia Modelo CGE regional Poblacion envejecida Migracion

Suggested Citation

  • K. Lisenkova & P. G. McGregor & N. Pappas & J. K. Swales & K. Turner & R. E. Wright, 2010. "Scotland the Grey: A Linked Demographic-Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis of the Impact of Population Ageing and Decline," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(10), pages 1351-1368.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:regstd:v:44:y:2010:i:10:p:1351-1368
    DOI: 10.1080/00343400701654228
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00343400701654228
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00343400701654228?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1995. "The Wage Curve," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026202375x, December.
    2. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173, Decembrie.
    3. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman, 1998. "Regional Computable General Equilibrium Modeling: A Survey and Critical Appraisal," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 21(3), pages 205-248, December.
    4. Peter Mcgregor & Kim Swales, 2005. "Economics of devolution/decentralization in the UK: Some questions and answers," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(4), pages 477-494.
    5. Harrigan, Frank & McGregor, Peter G. & Dourmashkin, Neil & Perman, Roger & Swales, Kim & Yin, Ya Ping, 1991. "AMOS : A macro-micro model of Scotland," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 424-479, October.
    6. Iain McLean & Alistair McMillan, 2003. "The Distribution of Public Expenditure across the UK Regions," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 24(1), pages 45-71, March.
    7. Stephen Bailey & Lisa Fingland, 2004. "Convergence of Public Expenditures in UK Territories," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(7), pages 845-858.
    8. Blanchflower, David G & Oswald, Andrew J, 1994. "Estimating a Wage Curve for Britain: 1973-90," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(426), pages 1025-1043, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michelle Gilmartin & David Learmouth & J Kim Swales & Peter McGregor & Karen Turner, 2013. "Regional Policy Spillovers: The National Impact of Demand-Side Policy in an Interregional Model of the UK Economy," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 45(4), pages 814-834, April.
    2. Lisenkova, Katerina & Mérette, Marcel & Wright, Robert, 2013. "Population ageing and the labour market: Modelling size and age-specific effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 981-989.
    3. Peter W. J. Batey, 2018. "What Can Demographic–Economic Modeling Tell Us about the Consequences of Regional Decline?," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 41(2), pages 256-281, March.
    4. Lin, Hsing-Chun & Lee, Huey-Lin & Chen, Po-Chi & Hsu, Sheng-Ming & Lin, Kuo-Jung & Lee, Duu-Hwa & Chang, Ching-Cheng & Hsu, Shih-Shun, 2013. "The Potential Crisis of Population Ageing and Low Fertility: GEMTEE Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium used in Population Forecasts and Analysis," Conference papers 332413, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Turner, Karen, 2009. "Negative rebound and disinvestment effects in response to an improvement in energy efficiency in the UK economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 648-666, September.
    2. Mark Partridge & Dan Rickman, 2010. "Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modelling for Regional Economic Development Analysis," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(10), pages 1311-1328.
    3. Gilmartin, Michelle & Swales, Kim J. & Turner, Karen, 2008. "A comparison of results from MRIO and interregional computable general equilibrium (CGE) analyses of the impacts of a positive demand shock on the ‘CO2 trade balance’ between Scotland and the rest," SIRE Discussion Papers 2008-24, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    4. Cui, Cathy Xin & Ha, Soo Jung & Hanley, Nicholas & McGregor, Peter G & Turner, Karen & Yin, Ya Ping, 2011. "Productivity Growth, Decoupling and Pollution Leakage," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2011-13, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
    5. Lecca, Patrizio & McGregor, Peter G. & Swales, J. Kim, 2013. "Forward-looking and myopic regional Computable General Equilibrium models: How significant is the distinction?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 160-176.
    6. Turner, Karen & Munday, Max & McGregor, Peter & Swales, Kim, 2012. "How responsible is a region for its carbon emissions? An empirical general equilibrium analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 70-78.
    7. Patrizio Lecca & Peter McGregor & Kim Swales, 2010. "Balanced Budget Government Spending in a Small Open Regional Economy," Working Papers 1020, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    8. Linda Ferguson & Peter Mcgregor & J. Kim Swales & Karen Turner & Ya Ping Yin, 2005. "Incorporating sustainability indicators into a computable general equilibrium model of the scottish economy," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 103-140.
    9. Kristinn Hermannsson & Patrizio Lecca & J. Kim Swales, 2017. "How much does a single graduation cohort from further education colleges contribute to an open regional economy?," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 429-451, October.
    10. Yizhou Zhang & Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, 2019. "Fiscal Decentralization – A Cautious Tale," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(1), pages 173-187, March.
    11. Fredrik Carlsen & Kåre Johansen & Knut RØed, 2006. "Wage Formation, Regional Migration and Local Labour Market Tightness," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(4), pages 423-444, August.
    12. Lecca, Patrizio & Swales, Kim & Turner, Karen, 2011. "An investigation of issues relating to where energy should enter the production function," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2832-2841.
    13. Dosi, G. & Pereira, M.C. & Roventini, A. & Virgillito, M.E., 2017. "When more flexibility yields more fragility: The microfoundations of Keynesian aggregate unemployment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 162-186.
    14. Lisenkova, Katya & McGregor, Peter & Pappas, Nikos & Swales, Kim & Turner, Karen & Wright, Robert E., 2007. "Macroeconomic Impacts of Demographic Change in Scotland: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 2623, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Soo Ha & J. Swales, 2012. "The export-base model with a supply-side stimulus to the export sector," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 49(2), pages 323-353, October.
    16. Raul Ramos & Catia Nicodemo & Esteve Sanromá, 2015. "A spatial panel wage curve for Spain," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 125-139, July.
    17. Giorgio Garau & Patrizio Lecca, 2015. "The Impact of Regional R&D Subsidy in a Computable General Equilibrium Model," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 38(4), pages 319-357, October.
    18. Baas, Timo & Brücker, Herbert, 2012. "The macroeconomic consequences of migration diversion: Evidence for Germany and the UK," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 180-194.
    19. Turner, Karen & Hanley, Nick, 2011. "Energy efficiency, rebound effects and the environmental Kuznets Curve," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 709-720, September.
    20. Karl Whelan, 1999. "Real wage dynamics and the Phillips Curve," Open Access publications 10197/250, School of Economics, University College Dublin.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:regstd:v:44:y:2010:i:10:p:1351-1368. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/CRES20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.