IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/inrsre/v41y2018i2p256-281.html

What Can Demographic–Economic Modeling Tell Us about the Consequences of Regional Decline?

Author

Listed:
  • Peter W. J. Batey

Abstract

The aim of this article is to demonstrate how a particular modeling framework, based on extended input–output analysis, can be used to obtain a clearer understanding of the impact of regional decline of the effects of high, and rising, unemployment; of falling industrial final demand; of welfare payments; and of declining population. The activity–commodity framework used here provides a systematic way of adding demographic variables to the familiar Leontief interindustry model and the extended inverse derived from it provides a rich source of information about the interaction of demographic and economic change, expressed as demographic–economic and economic–demographic multipliers. Drawing on the author’s research in the 1980s and 1990s, this article considers two empirical examples to show the framework’s analytical value: a simple extended model is used to assess the distributional effects of welfare payments in a declining region; and a more elaborate version is linked to a set of regional labor market accounts, summarizing intercensal change in population and employment. This model is used to produce a comprehensive assessment of the effects of population and employment change in two UK regions, one a growing region (East Anglia) and the other a region in decline (Merseyside). In a final section, the benefits and limitations of the extended input–output modeling framework are discussed in comparison with some of the alternative modeling frameworks that are currently available.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter W. J. Batey, 2018. "What Can Demographic–Economic Modeling Tell Us about the Consequences of Regional Decline?," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 41(2), pages 256-281, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:inrsre:v:41:y:2018:i:2:p:256-281
    DOI: 10.1177/0160017616654741
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0160017616654741
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0160017616654741?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Batey, Peter W. J. & Madden, Moss, 1983. "The modelling of demographic-economic change within the context of regional decline: Analytical procedures and empirical results," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 17(5-6), pages 315-328.
    2. Kijin Kim & Kurt Kratena & Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, 2015. "The Extended Econometric Input-Output Model With Heterogeneous Household Demand System," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(2), pages 257-285, June.
    3. R. Barras & T.A. Broadbent, 1979. "The Analysis in English Structure Plans," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 16(1), pages 1-18, February.
    4. M. J. Breheny & A. J. Roberts, 1980. "Forecasting Methodologies In Strategic Planning: A Review," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 75-89, January.
    5. Mark Partridge & Dan Rickman, 2010. "Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modelling for Regional Economic Development Analysis," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(10), pages 1311-1328.
    6. Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, 1985. "Regional Input-Output Analysis," Wholbk, Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University, number 11 edited by Grant I. Thrall, Fall.
    7. K. Lisenkova & P. G. McGregor & N. Pappas & J. K. Swales & K. Turner & R. E. Wright, 2010. "Scotland the Grey: A Linked Demographic-Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis of the Impact of Population Ageing and Decline," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(10), pages 1351-1368.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peter W. J. Batey & Geoffrey J. D. Hewings, 2021. "Demo-economic Modeling: Review and Prospects," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 44(3-4), pages 328-362, May.
    2. Patrizio Lecca & Peter McGregor & Kim Swales, 2010. "Balanced Budget Government Spending in a Small Open Regional Economy," Working Papers 1020, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    3. Michelle Gilmartin & David Learmouth & J Kim Swales & Peter McGregor & Karen Turner, 2013. "Regional Policy Spillovers: The National Impact of Demand-Side Policy in an Interregional Model of the UK Economy," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 45(4), pages 814-834, April.
    4. Michael Sonis, 2005. "Central Place Theory after Christaller and Further Explorations - in Memory of August Loesch , 15 October 1906- 30 May 1945," ERSA conference papers ersa05p18, European Regional Science Association.
    5. Steenge, Albert E. & Incera, André Carrascal & Serrano, Mònica, 2020. "Income distributions in multi-sector analysis; Miyazawa’s fundamental equation of income formation revisited," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 377-387.
    6. Chang Seung & Edward Waters, 2010. "Evaluating Supply-Side And Demand-Side Shocks For Fisheries: A Computable General Equilibrium (Cge) Model For Alaska," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 87-109.
    7. Hodjat Ghadimi, 2008. "Energy in a Resource-based Regional Economy: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers Working Paper 2008-02, Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University.
    8. Hewings, Geoffrey J D & Jensen, Rodney C, 1988. "Emerging Challenges in Regional Input-Output Analysis," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 22(0), pages 43-53, February.
    9. Nguyen Quang Thai & Bui Trinh & Nguyen Hong Nhung, 2019. "The Discussion on Input – Output Framework Extended for Analyzing on Relationship between Demographic and Economic," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(6), pages 52-57, June.
    10. Court, Christa D. & Munday, Max & Roberts, Annette & Turner, Karen, 2015. "Can hazardous waste supply chain ‘hotspots’ be identified using an input–output framework?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 241(1), pages 177-187.
    11. Alvaro Gallardo & Cristian Mardones, 2013. "Environmentally extended social accounting matrix for Chile," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 1099-1127, August.
    12. Attila Varga, 2014. "Challenges in modeling the impacts of modern development policies: The case of the GMR-approach," EcoMod2014 7151, EcoMod.
    13. Oosterhaven, Jan, 2004. "On the definition of key sectors and the stability of net versus gross multipliers," Research Report 04C01, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    14. Qin Fan & Meri Davlasheridze, 2019. "Economic Impacts Of Migration And Brain Drain After Major Catastrophe: The Case Of Hurricane Katrina," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(01), pages 1-21, February.
    15. JoseÌ Antonio de França & Wilfredo Sosa Sandoval, 2021. "Knowledge Economy in Brazil: Analysis of Sectoral Concentration and Production by Region," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 13(11), pages 1-53, November.
    16. Melissa De La Ossa & RaÔøΩl Castro & Javier PÔøΩrez, 2015. "Impactos Econ√≥micos de Proyectos de Renovaci√≥n Urbana en Bogot√°: Un An√°lisis a partir de los Multiplicadores de la SAM 2010," Documentos CEDE 13877, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    17. Nguyen Hong Nhung & Nguyen Quang Thai & Bui Trinh & Nguyen Viet Phong, 2019. "Rural and Urban in Vietnam Economic Structure," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(3), pages 31-39, March.
    18. Júlio Vicente Cateia & Maurício Vaz Lobo Bittencourt & Terciane Sabadini Carvalho & Luc Savard, 2023. "Funding schemes for infrastructure investment and poverty alleviation in Africa: Evidence from Guinea‐Bissau," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 1505-1529, August.
    19. Xiuli Liu & Geoffrey J. D. Hewings, 2019. "Identification of changes in the economic interactions among sectors from 1995 to 2010 for Chicago economy using hierarchical feedback loop analysis," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 62(3), pages 637-655, June.
    20. Kiyoshi Yonemoto, 2016. "Changes in the input–output structures of the six regions of Fukushima, Japan: 3 years after the disaster," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 5(1), pages 1-20, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:inrsre:v:41:y:2018:i:2:p:256-281. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.