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Real wage dynamics and the Phillips curve

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  • Karl Whelan

Abstract

Since Friedman (1968), the traditional derivation of the accelerationist Phillips curve has related expected real wage inflation to the unemployment rate and then invoked markup pricing and adaptive expectations to generate the accelerationist price inflation equation. Blanchflower and Oswald (1994) have argued that microeconomic evidence of a low autoregression coefficient in real wage regressions invalidates this approach, a conclusion that has been disputed widely on the grounds that the true autoregression coefficient is close to one. This paper shows that the accelerationist relationship between the change in price inflation and the unemployment rate is consistent with any type of microeconomic real wage dynamics. However, these dynamics will determine how supply shocks affect inflation. Evidence on supply shocks and inflation points against the traditional real wage formulation. Implications for the recent behavior of the NAIRU are explored.

Suggested Citation

  • Karl Whelan, 2000. "Real wage dynamics and the Phillips curve," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-02, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2000-02
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Alfonso Arpaia & Karl Pichelmann, 2007. "Nominal and real wage flexibility in EMU," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 299-328, November.
    3. García-Mainar , Inmaculada & Montuenga-Gómez , Víctor M., 2012. "Wage dynamics in Spain: evidence from individual data (1994-2001)," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 24, pages 41-58.
    4. Campbell III, Carl M., 2008. "An efficiency wage approach to reconciling the wage curve and the Phillips curve," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 1388-1415, December.
    5. Rasmus Kattai, 2005. "EMMA - A Quarterly Model of the Estonian Economy," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2005-12, Bank of Estonia, revised 12 Dec 2005.
    6. Víctor M. Montuenga‐Gómez & José M. Ramos‐Parreño, 2005. "Reconciling the Wage Curve and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(5), pages 735-765, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Phillips curve; Inflation (Finance); Wages;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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