IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ucn/oapubs/10197-246.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Wage Curve vs. Phillips Curve : are there macroeconomic implications?

Author

Listed:
  • Karl Whelan

Abstract

The standard derivation of the accelerationist Phillips curve relates expected real wage inflation to the unemployment rate and invokes a constant price markup and adaptive expectations to generate the accelerationist price inflation formula. Blanchflower and Oswald (1994) argue that microeconomic evidence of a low autoregression coefficient in real wage regressions invalidates the macroeconomic Phillips curve. This conclusion has been disputed by a number of authors on the grounds that the true autoregression coefficient is close to one. This paper shows that given the assumption of a constant price markup, micro-level real wage dynamics have no observable implications for macro data on wage and price inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Karl Whelan, 1997. "Wage Curve vs. Phillips Curve : are there macroeconomic implications?," Open Access publications 10197/246, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucn:oapubs:10197/246
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10197/246
    File Function: First version, 1997
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
    2. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
    3. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
    4. repec:fth:prinin:343 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. David Card, 1995. "The Wage Curve: A Review," Working Papers 722, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    6. Olivier Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1997. "What We Know and Do Not Know about the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 51-72, Winter.
    7. David Card, 1995. "The Wage Curve: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 285-299, June.
    8. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1991. "Markups and the Business Cycle," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 63-140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1995. "An Introduction to the Wage Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 153-167, Summer.
    10. Blanchflower, David G & Oswald, Andrew J, 1994. "Estimating a Wage Curve for Britain: 1973-90," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(426), pages 1025-1043, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Islam , Faridul & Shabbir, Muhammad Shahbaz, 2012. "Phillips Curve in a Small Open Economy: A Time Series Exploration of North Cyprus," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 35(4), pages 113-130, December.
    2. repec:bdr:ensayo:v::y:2003:i:43:p:66-85 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 2005. "The Wage Curve Reloaded," NBER Working Papers 11338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Enrique López E & Martha Misas A, 1998. "Un Examen Empírico De La Curva De Phillips En Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 17(34), pages 39-87, December.
    5. Fabiani, Silvia & Mestre, Ricardo, 2000. "Alternative measures of the NAIRU in the euro area: estimates and assessment," Working Paper Series 0017, European Central Bank.
    6. Robert G Murphy & Adam Rohde, 2018. "Rational Bias in Inflation Expectations," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 44(1), pages 153-171, January.
    7. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2006. "Double-Conditioned Potential Output," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 3(1), pages 32-50, March.
    8. Andrey Shilov & Joachim Mueller, 2008. "Wage curve: theory and empirics (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 4, pages 93-100, March.
    9. Kumar, Anil & M. Orrenius, Pia, 2016. "A closer look at the Phillips curve using state-level data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA), pages 84-102.
    10. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2006. "Macromodel of the Romanian market economy (version 2005)," MPRA Paper 35749, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Javier G. Gómez-Pineda, 2003. "Wage Indexation, Inflation Inertia, and the Cost of Disinflation," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 21(43), pages 66-85, June.
    12. Ross Garnaut & David Vines, 2023. "Monetary Policy Mistakes and Remedies: An Assessment Following the RBA Review," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 56(3), pages 273-287, September.
    13. Lawrence F. Katz & Olivier Blanchard, 1999. "Wage Dynamics: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 69-74, May.
    14. Daniel Aaronson & Daniel G. Sullivan, 2000. "Unemployment and wage growth: recent cross-state evidence," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 25(Q II), pages 41-54.
    15. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2006. "Integration of macroeconomic behavioural relationships and the input-output block: Romanian modelling experience," MPRA Paper 35748, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Pant, Hom & Warr, Peter, 2016. "Modelling Involuntary Unemployment in Applied GE Models," Conference papers 332799, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    17. Laurence Ball, 1999. "Aggregate demand and Long-Run Unemployment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(2), pages 189-252.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Karl Whelan, 1999. "Real wage dynamics and the Phillips Curve," Open Access publications 10197/250, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    2. López Enciso, Enrique & Ramírez Giraldo, María Teresa (ed.), 2011. "Formación de precios y salarios en Colombia T.2," Books, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, volume 2, number 2011b-04, December.
    3. Inmaculada Garcia-Mainar & Victor Montuenga-Gomez, 2003. "The Spanish Wage Curve: 1994-1996," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(9), pages 929-945.
    4. Jens Suedekum, 2005. "Increasing returns and spatial unemployment disparities," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 84(2), pages 159-181, June.
    5. Baltagi, Badi H. & Blien, Uwe & Wolf, Katja, 2009. "New evidence on the dynamic wage curve for Western Germany: 1980-2004," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 47-51, January.
    6. Joan Daouli & Michael Demoussis & Nicholas Giannakopoulos & Ioannis Laliotis, 2017. "The wage curve before and during the Greek economic crisis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 59-77, February.
    7. Víctor M. Montuenga‐Gómez & José M. Ramos‐Parreño, 2005. "Reconciling the Wage Curve and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(5), pages 735-765, December.
    8. AlbÆk, Karsten & Asplund, Rita & Blomskog, Stig & Barth, Erling & GuÐmundsson, Björn Runar & Karlsson, Vifill & Madsen, Erik, 2002. "Dimensions of the Wage-dimensions Relationship in the Nordic Countries: Wage Flexibility without Wage Curves," Discussion Papers 698, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    9. Kumar, Anil & M. Orrenius, Pia, 2016. "A closer look at the Phillips curve using state-level data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA), pages 84-102.
    10. Albaek, K. & Asplund, R. & Blomskog, S. & Barth, E. & Guomundsson,B.R. & Karlsson, V. & Madsen, E.S., 1999. "Domensions of the Wage-Unemployment Relationship in the Nordic Countries: Wage Flexibility without Wage Curves," Papers 99-24, Carleton - School of Public Administration.
    11. Ana Barufi & Eduardo Haddad & Peter Nijkamp, 2016. "A comprehensive analysis of the wage curve in Brazil: Non-linearities, urban size, and the spatial dimension," ERSA conference papers ersa16p279, European Regional Science Association.
    12. Gavin Cameron & John Muellbauer, 2001. "Earnings, unemployment, and housing in Britain," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 203-220.
    13. Cameron, G. & Muellbauer, J., 1999. "Earnings, Unemployment, and Housing: Evidence from a Panel of British Regions," Economics Papers 1999-w7, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    14. Koenig, Felix & Manning, Alan & Petrongolo, Barbara, 2014. "Reservation wages and the wage flexibility puzzle," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 60613, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Ana Maria Bonomi Barufi & Eduardo A. Haddad, Peter Nijkamp, 2016. "New evidence on the wage curve: non-linearities, urban size, and spatial scale in Brazil," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2016_39, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    16. Ramos, Raul & Duque, Juan C. & Surinach, Jordi, 2010. "Is the wage curve formal or informal? Evidence for Colombia," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 63-65, November.
    17. James Hines & Hilary Hoynes & Alan Krueger, 2001. "Another Look at Whether a Rising Tide Lifts All Boats," Working Papers 833, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    18. Herbert Brücker & Elke J. Jahn, 2011. "Migration and Wage‐setting: Reassessing the Labor Market Effects of Migration," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 113, pages 286-317, June.
    19. Alberto Alonso & Cristina Echevarria & Kien C. Tran, 2004. "Long‐Run Economic Performance and the Labor Market," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 70(4), pages 905-919, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Phillips curve; Autoregression (Statistics); Inflation (Finance)--Mathematical models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucn:oapubs:10197/246. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Nicolas Clifton (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/educdie.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.