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Wage Curve vs. Phillips Curve : are there macroeconomic implications?

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  • Karl Whelan

Abstract

The standard derivation of the accelerationist Phillips curve relates expected real wage inflation to the unemployment rate and invokes a constant price markup and adaptive expectations to generate the accelerationist price inflation formula. Blanchflower and Oswald (1994) argue that microeconomic evidence of a low autoregression coefficient in real wage regressions invalidates the macroeconomic Phillips curve. This conclusion has been disputed by a number of authors on the grounds that the true autoregression coefficient is close to one. This paper shows that given the assumption of a constant price markup, micro-level real wage dynamics have no observable implications for macro data on wage and price inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Karl Whelan, 1997. "Wage Curve vs. Phillips Curve : are there macroeconomic implications?," Open Access publications 10197/246, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucn:oapubs:10197/246
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10197/246
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
    2. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
    3. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
    4. David Card, 1995. "The Wage Curve: A Review," Working Papers 722, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    5. Olivier Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1997. "What We Know and Do Not Know about the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 51-72, Winter.
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    7. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1991. "Markups and the Business Cycle," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 63-140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1995. "An Introduction to the Wage Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 153-167, Summer.
    9. repec:fth:prinin:343 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Blanchflower, David G & Oswald, Andrew J, 1994. "Estimating a Wage Curve for Britain: 1973-90," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(426), pages 1025-1043, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Islam , Faridul & Shabbir, Muhammad Shahbaz, 2012. "Phillips Curve in a Small Open Economy: A Time Series Exploration of North Cyprus," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 35(4), pages 113-130, December.
    2. Andrey Shilov & Joachim Mueller, 2008. "Wage curve: theory and empirics (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 4, pages 93-100, March.
    3. Kumar, Anil & M. Orrenius, Pia, 2016. "A closer look at the Phillips curve using state-level data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA), pages 84-102.
    4. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2006. "Macromodel of the Romanian market economy (version 2005)," MPRA Paper 35749, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Javier G. Gómez-Pineda, 2003. "Wage Indexation, Inflation Inertia, and the Cost of Disinflation," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 21(43), pages 66-85, June.
    6. Ross Garnaut & David Vines, 2023. "Monetary Policy Mistakes and Remedies: An Assessment Following the RBA Review," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 56(3), pages 273-287, September.
    7. Lawrence F. Katz & Olivier Blanchard, 1999. "Wage Dynamics: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 69-74, May.
    8. Emilian Dobrescu, 2006. "Integration of Macroeconomic Behavioural Relationships and the Input-output Block (Romanian Modelling Experience)," EcoMod2006 272100018, EcoMod.
    9. Laurence Ball, 1999. "Aggregate demand and Long-Run Unemployment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(2), pages 189-252.
    10. repec:bdr:ensayo:v::y:2003:i:43:p:66-85 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 2005. "The Wage Curve Reloaded," NBER Working Papers 11338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Enrique López E & Martha Misas A, 1998. "Un Examen Empírico De La Curva De Phillips En Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 17(34), pages 39-87, December.
    13. Fabiani, Silvia & Mestre, Ricardo, 2000. "Alternative measures of the NAIRU in the euro area: estimates and assessment," Working Paper Series 0017, European Central Bank.
    14. Robert G Murphy & Adam Rohde, 2018. "Rational Bias in Inflation Expectations," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 44(1), pages 153-171, January.
    15. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2006. "Double-Conditioned Potential Output," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 3(1), pages 32-50, March.
    16. Daniel Aaronson & Daniel G. Sullivan, 2000. "Unemployment and wage growth: recent cross-state evidence," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 25(Q II), pages 41-54.
    17. Pant, Hom & Warr, Peter, 2016. "Modelling Involuntary Unemployment in Applied GE Models," Conference papers 332799, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Phillips curve; Autoregression (Statistics); Inflation (Finance)--Mathematical models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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