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Macroeconomic Impacts of Demographic Change in Scotland: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

  • Lisenkova, Katya

    ()

    (University of Strathclyde)

  • McGregor, Peter

    ()

    (University of Strathclyde)

  • Pappas, Nikos

    ()

    (University of Strathclyde)

  • Swales, Kim

    ()

    (University of Strathclyde)

  • Turner, Karen

    ()

    (University of Strathclyde)

  • Wright, Robert E.

    ()

    (University of Strathclyde)

This paper combines a multi-period economic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling framework with a demographic model to analyse the macroeconomic impact of the projected demographic trends in Scotland. Demographic trends are defined by the existing fertility-mortality rates and the level of annual net-migration. We employ a combination of a demographic and a CGE simulation to track the impact of changes in demographic structure upon macroeconomic variables under different scenarios for annual migration. We find that positive net migration can cancel the expected negative impact upon the labour market of other demographic changes. (Pressure on wages, falling employment). However, the required size of the annual net-migration is far higher than the current trends. The policy implication suggested by the results is that active policies are needed to attract migrants. We nevertheless report results when varying fertility and mortality assumptions. The impact of varying those assumptions is rather small.

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 2623.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2623
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  1. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman, 1998. "Regional Computable General Equilibrium Modeling: A Survey and Critical Appraisal," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 21(3), pages 205-248, December.
  2. Greenwood, Michael J, et al, 1991. "Migration, Regional Equilibrium, and the Estimation of Compensating Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1382-90, December.
  3. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521319867 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173, March.
  5. Harrigan, Frank & McGregor, Peter G. & Dourmashkin, Neil & Perman, Roger & Swales, Kim & Yin, Ya Ping, 1991. "AMOS : A macro-micro model of Scotland," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 424-479, October.
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