IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/6765.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An Econometric Analysis of Aggregate Outbound Tourism Demand of Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Halicioglu, Ferda

Abstract

This study attempts to examine empirically aggregate tourism outflows in the case of Turkey using the time series data for the period 1970-2005. As far as this article is concerned, there exists no previous empirical work dealing with the tourist outflows from Turkey. The previous tourism studies in the case of Turkey, by and large, focus on the inbound tourism demand analyses. As a developing country and an important tourism destination, Turkey has also been a significant source for generating a substantial number of tourists in recent years. Therefore, the tourist outflows from Turkey deserve to be analysed empirically too. The total tourist outflows from Turkey are related to real income and relative prices. The bounds testing to cointegration procedure proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001) is employed to compute the short and long-run elasticities of income and relative prices. An augmented form of Granger causality analysis is conducted amongst the variables of outbound tourist flows, income and relative prices to determine the direction of causality. In the long-run, causality runs interactively through the error correction term from income and relative prices to outbound tourist flows. However, in the short-run, causality runs only from income to outbound tourism flows. The aggregate tourism outflows equation is also checked for the parameter stability via the tests of cumulative sum (CUSUM) and cumulative sum of the squares (CUSUMSQ). The empirical results suggest that income is the most significant variable in explaining the total tourist outflows from Turkey and there exists a stable outbound tourism demand function. The results also provide important policy recommendations.

Suggested Citation

  • Halicioglu, Ferda, 2008. "An Econometric Analysis of Aggregate Outbound Tourism Demand of Turkey," MPRA Paper 6765, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2008.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:6765
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6765/2/MPRA_paper_6765.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    2. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2006. "Higher Education, Real Income and Real Investment in China: Evidence From Granger Causality Tests," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 107-125.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    4. N. Kulendran, 1996. "Modelling Quarterly Tourist Flows to Australia Using Cointegration Analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 2(3), pages 203-222, September.
    5. M. Bahmani-Oskooee & Gour Goswami, 2003. "A disaggregated approach to test the J-Curve phenomenon: Japan versus her major trading partners," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 27(1), pages 102-113, March.
    6. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    7. Haiyan Song & Peter Romilly & Xiaming Liu, 2000. "An empirical study of outbound tourism demand in the UK," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(5), pages 611-624.
    8. Song, Haiyan & Witt, Stephen F. & Jensen, Thomas C., 2003. "Tourism forecasting: accuracy of alternative econometric models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 123-141.
    9. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    10. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    11. Andrea Mervar & James E. Payne, 2007. "Analysis of Foreign Tourism Demand for Croatian Destinations: Long-Run Elasticity Estimates," Tourism Economics, , vol. 13(3), pages 407-420, September.
    12. Lim, Christine, 2004. "The major determinants of Korean outbound travel to Australia," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 477-485.
    13. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    14. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
    15. Ferda Halicioglu, 2005. "An Ardl Model Of Aggregate Tourism Demand For Turkey," International Trade 0503005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Seetaram, Neelu & Forsyth, Peter & Dwyer, Larry, 2016. "Measuring price elasticities of demand for outbound tourism using competitiveness indices," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 65-79.
    2. Peng, Bo & Song, Haiyan & Crouch, Geoffrey I., 2014. "A meta-analysis of international tourism demand forecasting and implications for practice," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 181-193.
    3. Otero-Giráldez, María Soledad & Álvarez-Díaz, Marcos & González-Gómez, Manuel, 2012. "Estimating the long-run effects of socioeconomic and meteorological factors on the domestic tourism demand for Galicia (Spain)," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1301-1308.
    4. Halicioglu, Ferda & Ketenci, Natalya, 2016. "The impact of international trade on environmental quality: The case of transition countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 1130-1138.
    5. Chien-Ming Wang & Su-Lan Pan & Alastair M. Morrison & Tsung-Pao Wu, 2022. "The dynamic linkages among outbound tourism, economic growth, and international trade: empirical evidence from China," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(11), pages 1-18, November.
    6. Ferda HALICIOGLU, 2012. "The Demand for Calories in Turkey," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 27(316), pages 93-108.
    7. Halicioglu, Ferda & Ketenci, Natalya, 2015. "The impact of international trade on environmental quality in transition countries: evidence from time series data during 1991-2013," MPRA Paper 71097, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    8. Emmanuel Ziramba, 2013. "Aggregate Outbound Tourism Demand in South Africa: an Econometric Analysis," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 5(5), pages 260-267.
    9. Yoon Koh & Seoki Lee & Chris Choi, 2013. "The Income Elasticity of Demand and Firm Performance of US Restaurant Companies by Restaurant Type during Recessions," Tourism Economics, , vol. 19(4), pages 855-881, August.
    10. Chia-Yu Yeh & Kang Ernest Liu, 2019. "Modeling Household Participation Decisions Between Domestic And International Trips By Semi-Nonparametric Regressions," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(01), pages 191-211, March.
    11. Eugenio-Martin, Juan L. & Cazorla-Artiles, José M., 2020. "The shares method for revealing latent tourism demand," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    12. Dragouni, Mina & Filis, George & Gavriilidis, Konstantinos & Santamaria, Daniel, 2016. "Sentiment, mood and outbound tourism demand," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 80-96.
    13. Ogechi Adeola & Nathaniel Boso & Olaniyi Evans, 2018. "Drivers of international tourism demand in Africa," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 53(1), pages 25-36, January.
    14. Serdar Ongan & Cem Işik & Dilek Özdemir, 2017. "The Effects of Real Exchange Rates and Income on International Tourism Demand for the USA from Some European Union Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-11, December.
    15. Gaojun Zhang & Jinfeng Wu & Bing Pan & Junyi Li & Minjie Ma & Muzi Zhang & Jian Wang, 2017. "Improving daily occupancy forecasting accuracy for hotels based on EEMD-ARIMA model," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(7), pages 1496-1514, November.
    16. Vatsa, Puneet, 2020. "Comovement amongst the demand for New Zealand tourism," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    17. Alper Aslan, 2015. "The sustainability of tourism income on economic growth: does education matter?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 49(5), pages 2097-2106, September.
    18. Gokhan H. Akay & Atilla Cifter & Ozdemir Teke, 2017. "Turkish tourism, exchange rates and income," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(1), pages 66-77, February.
    19. Mehmet Balcilar & Sahar Aghazadeh & George N Ike, 2021. "Modelling the employment, income and price elasticities of outbound tourism demand in OECD countries," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(5), pages 971-990, August.
    20. Ferhat Citak, 2018. "Exchange Rate and Turkish Tourism Trade," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(4), pages 206-213.
    21. Chi, Junwook, 2014. "A cointegration analysis of bilateral air travel flows: The case of international travel to and from the United States," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 41-47.
    22. Imtiaz Arif; Syeda Wajiha Kazmi; Lubna Khan, 2017. "Relationship between Trade Openness and Energy Consumption in Oil Importing Asian Countries," Journal of Finance and Economics Research, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 2(1), pages 30-39, March.
    23. Theologos Dergiades & Eleni Mavragani & Bing Pan, 2017. "Arrivals of Tourists in Cyprus: Mind the Web Search Intensity," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 107, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ferda Halicioglu, 2005. "An Ardl Model Of Aggregate Tourism Demand For Turkey," International Trade 0503005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2009. "An econometric study of CO2 emissions, energy consumption, income and foreign trade in Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1156-1164, March.
    3. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2007. "Residential electricity demand dynamics in Turkey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 199-210, March.
    4. Bibhuti Ranjan Mishra & Asit Mohanty, 2017. "An Empirical Analysis of Aggregate Import Demand Function for India," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 1-12, December.
    5. Sanjay Sehgal & Ritesh Kumar Mishra & Ajay Jaisawal, 2021. "A search for macroeconomic determinants of corporate financial distress," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 435-461, December.
    6. Jayaraman, T.K. & Choong, Chee-Keong, 2009. "Growth and oil price: A study of causal relationships in small Pacific Island countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2182-2189, June.
    7. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2011. "A dynamic econometric study of income, energy and exports in Turkey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 3348-3354.
    8. Farhani, Sahbi & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2014. "The role of natural gas consumption and trade in Tunisia's output," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 677-684.
    9. Sahbi Farhani & Anissa Chaibi & Christophe Rault, 2014. "A study of CO2 emissions, output,energy consumption, and trade," Working Papers 2014-56, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    10. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-057 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Farhani, Sahbi & Chaibi, Anissa & Rault, Christophe, 2014. "CO2 emissions, output, energy consumption, and trade in Tunisia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 426-434.
    12. repec:ipg:wpaper:201415 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Senay, Acikgöz & Mert, Merter, 2015. "The endogeneity of the natural rate of growth: An alternative approach," Economics Discussion Papers 2015-2, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    14. Angeliki N. Menegaki, 2019. "The ARDL Method in the Energy-Growth Nexus Field; Best Implementation Strategies," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-16, October.
    15. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-056 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-582 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? Cointegrated VAR Versus Single Equation Techniques," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(4), pages 285-315.
    18. repec:zbw:rwirep:0171 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Constantinos Alexiou & Persefoni Tsaliki & Lefteris Tsoulfidis, 2008. "The Greek Hyperinflation Revisited," Ekonomia, Cyprus Economic Society and University of Cyprus, vol. 11(1), pages 19-34, Summer.
    20. A. Nurul Hossain & Syed Hasanuzzaman, 2013. "Remittances and investment nexus in Bangladesh: an ARDL bounds testing approach," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 60(4), pages 387-407, December.
    21. Ahmad, Najid & Du, Liangsheng, 2017. "Effects of energy production and CO2 emissions on economic growth in Iran: ARDL approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 521-537.
    22. Goh, Soo Khoon & McNown, Robert, 2015. "Examining the exchange rate regime–monetary policy autonomy nexus: Evidence from Malaysia," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 292-303.
    23. Hasanov, Fakhri J. & Shannak, Sa'd, 2020. "Electricity incentives for agriculture in Saudi Arabia. Is that relevant to remove them?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    24. Hai Tao & Hailin Mu & Nan Li & Peng Wang, 2023. "Alternative Energy and CO 2 Emission in China: Evidence from Bounds Testing and Vector Error Correction Model Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-19, April.
    25. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2006. "Determinants of Female Fertility in Taiwan, 1966–2001: Empirical Evidence from Cointegration and Variance Decomposition Analysis," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 393-407, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    outbound tourism demand; cointegration; Granger causality; stability tests; Turkey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:6765. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.