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An Econometric Analysis of Aggregate Outbound Tourism Demand of Turkey

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  • Halicioglu, Ferda

Abstract

This study attempts to examine empirically aggregate tourism outflows in the case of Turkey using the time series data for the period 1970-2005. As far as this article is concerned, there exists no previous empirical work dealing with the tourist outflows from Turkey. The previous tourism studies in the case of Turkey, by and large, focus on the inbound tourism demand analyses. As a developing country and an important tourism destination, Turkey has also been a significant source for generating a substantial number of tourists in recent years. Therefore, the tourist outflows from Turkey deserve to be analysed empirically too. The total tourist outflows from Turkey are related to real income and relative prices. The bounds testing to cointegration procedure proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001) is employed to compute the short and long-run elasticities of income and relative prices. An augmented form of Granger causality analysis is conducted amongst the variables of outbound tourist flows, income and relative prices to determine the direction of causality. In the long-run, causality runs interactively through the error correction term from income and relative prices to outbound tourist flows. However, in the short-run, causality runs only from income to outbound tourism flows. The aggregate tourism outflows equation is also checked for the parameter stability via the tests of cumulative sum (CUSUM) and cumulative sum of the squares (CUSUMSQ). The empirical results suggest that income is the most significant variable in explaining the total tourist outflows from Turkey and there exists a stable outbound tourism demand function. The results also provide important policy recommendations.

Suggested Citation

  • Halicioglu, Ferda, 2008. "An Econometric Analysis of Aggregate Outbound Tourism Demand of Turkey," MPRA Paper 6765, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2008.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:6765
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    Cited by:

    1. Seetaram, Neelu & Forsyth, Peter & Dwyer, Larry, 2016. "Measuring price elasticities of demand for outbound tourism using competitiveness indices," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 65-79.
    2. Peng, Bo & Song, Haiyan & Crouch, Geoffrey I., 2014. "A meta-analysis of international tourism demand forecasting and implications for practice," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 181-193.
    3. Otero-Giráldez, María Soledad & Álvarez-Díaz, Marcos & González-Gómez, Manuel, 2012. "Estimating the long-run effects of socioeconomic and meteorological factors on the domestic tourism demand for Galicia (Spain)," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1301-1308.
    4. Halicioglu, Ferda & Ketenci, Natalya, 2016. "The impact of international trade on environmental quality: The case of transition countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 1130-1138.
    5. Chien-Ming Wang & Su-Lan Pan & Alastair M. Morrison & Tsung-Pao Wu, 2022. "The dynamic linkages among outbound tourism, economic growth, and international trade: empirical evidence from China," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(11), pages 1-18, November.
    6. Ferda HALICIOGLU, 2012. "The Demand for Calories in Turkey," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 27(316), pages 93-108.
    7. Halicioglu, Ferda & Ketenci, Natalya, 2015. "The impact of international trade on environmental quality in transition countries: evidence from time series data during 1991-2013," MPRA Paper 71097, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    8. Emmanuel Ziramba, 2013. "Aggregate Outbound Tourism Demand in South Africa: an Econometric Analysis," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 5(5), pages 260-267.
    9. Yoon Koh & Seoki Lee & Chris Choi, 2013. "The Income Elasticity of Demand and Firm Performance of US Restaurant Companies by Restaurant Type during Recessions," Tourism Economics, , vol. 19(4), pages 855-881, August.
    10. Chia-Yu Yeh & Kang Ernest Liu, 2019. "Modeling Household Participation Decisions Between Domestic And International Trips By Semi-Nonparametric Regressions," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(01), pages 191-211, March.
    11. Eugenio-Martin, Juan L. & Cazorla-Artiles, José M., 2020. "The shares method for revealing latent tourism demand," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    12. Dragouni, Mina & Filis, George & Gavriilidis, Konstantinos & Santamaria, Daniel, 2016. "Sentiment, mood and outbound tourism demand," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 80-96.
    13. Ogechi Adeola & Nathaniel Boso & Olaniyi Evans, 2018. "Drivers of international tourism demand in Africa," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 53(1), pages 25-36, January.
    14. Serdar Ongan & Cem Işik & Dilek Özdemir, 2017. "The Effects of Real Exchange Rates and Income on International Tourism Demand for the USA from Some European Union Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-11, December.
    15. Gaojun Zhang & Jinfeng Wu & Bing Pan & Junyi Li & Minjie Ma & Muzi Zhang & Jian Wang, 2017. "Improving daily occupancy forecasting accuracy for hotels based on EEMD-ARIMA model," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(7), pages 1496-1514, November.
    16. Vatsa, Puneet, 2020. "Comovement amongst the demand for New Zealand tourism," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    17. Alper Aslan, 2015. "The sustainability of tourism income on economic growth: does education matter?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 49(5), pages 2097-2106, September.
    18. Gokhan H. Akay & Atilla Cifter & Ozdemir Teke, 2017. "Turkish tourism, exchange rates and income," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(1), pages 66-77, February.
    19. Mehmet Balcilar & Sahar Aghazadeh & George N Ike, 2021. "Modelling the employment, income and price elasticities of outbound tourism demand in OECD countries," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(5), pages 971-990, August.
    20. Ferhat Citak, 2018. "Exchange Rate and Turkish Tourism Trade," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(4), pages 206-213.
    21. Chi, Junwook, 2014. "A cointegration analysis of bilateral air travel flows: The case of international travel to and from the United States," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 41-47.
    22. Imtiaz Arif; Syeda Wajiha Kazmi; Lubna Khan, 2017. "Relationship between Trade Openness and Energy Consumption in Oil Importing Asian Countries," Journal of Finance and Economics Research, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 2(1), pages 30-39, March.
    23. Theologos Dergiades & Eleni Mavragani & Bing Pan, 2017. "Arrivals of Tourists in Cyprus: Mind the Web Search Intensity," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 107, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    outbound tourism demand; cointegration; Granger causality; stability tests; Turkey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

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