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An Econometric Analysis of Aggregate Outbound Tourism Demand of Turkey

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  • Halicioglu, Ferda

Abstract

This study attempts to examine empirically aggregate tourism outflows in the case of Turkey using the time series data for the period 1970-2005. As far as this article is concerned, there exists no previous empirical work dealing with the tourist outflows from Turkey. The previous tourism studies in the case of Turkey, by and large, focus on the inbound tourism demand analyses. As a developing country and an important tourism destination, Turkey has also been a significant source for generating a substantial number of tourists in recent years. Therefore, the tourist outflows from Turkey deserve to be analysed empirically too. The total tourist outflows from Turkey are related to real income and relative prices. The bounds testing to cointegration procedure proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001) is employed to compute the short and long-run elasticities of income and relative prices. An augmented form of Granger causality analysis is conducted amongst the variables of outbound tourist flows, income and relative prices to determine the direction of causality. In the long-run, causality runs interactively through the error correction term from income and relative prices to outbound tourist flows. However, in the short-run, causality runs only from income to outbound tourism flows. The aggregate tourism outflows equation is also checked for the parameter stability via the tests of cumulative sum (CUSUM) and cumulative sum of the squares (CUSUMSQ). The empirical results suggest that income is the most significant variable in explaining the total tourist outflows from Turkey and there exists a stable outbound tourism demand function. The results also provide important policy recommendations.

Suggested Citation

  • Halicioglu, Ferda, 2008. "An Econometric Analysis of Aggregate Outbound Tourism Demand of Turkey," MPRA Paper 6765, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2008.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:6765
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6765/2/MPRA_paper_6765.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2006. "Higher Education, Real Income and Real Investment in China: Evidence From Granger Causality Tests," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 107-125.
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    6. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alper Aslan, 2015. "The sustainability of tourism income on economic growth: does education matter?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 49(5), pages 2097-2106, September.
    2. Ferda HALICIOGLU, 2012. "The Demand for Calories in Turkey," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 27(316), pages 93-108.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    outbound tourism demand; cointegration; Granger causality; stability tests; Turkey;

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

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