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An Analysis of Foreign Tourism Demand for Croatian Destinations: Long-Run Elasticity Estimates


  • Andrea Mervar
  • James E. Payne

    () (The Institute of Economics, Zagreb)


Given that tourism is a significant source of export revenues for Croatia, it is vital for policymakers to understand the factors affecting foreign tourism demand for Croatian destinations. This study provides long-run elasticity estimates associated with the aggregate foreign tourism demand for Croatian destinations in the period 1994:1-2004:4 using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. Foreign tourism demand is proxied by the aggregate number of foreign overnight stays in Croatia. The long-run elasticity estimates indicate that tourism demand is positive and highly elastic with respect to the income of tourist-generating countries. Moreover, tourism demand is adversely affected by the political conflicts in the 1990s. The real exchange rate and transportation costs are not statistically significant determinants of foreign tourism demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Mervar & James E. Payne, 2007. "An Analysis of Foreign Tourism Demand for Croatian Destinations: Long-Run Elasticity Estimates," Working Papers 0701, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb.
  • Handle: RePEc:iez:wpaper:0701

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. John E. Prescott & John H. Grant, 1988. "A Manager's Guide for Evaluating Competitive Analysis Techniques," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 18(3), pages 10-22, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nuno Carlos LEITÃO & Muhammad SHAHBAZ, 2012. "Migration and Tourism Demand," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(567)), pages 39-48, February.
    2. Andreja Benkovic & Juan Felipe Mejía, 2008. "Tourism as a driver of economic development: The Colombian experience," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO CIEF 010630, UNIVERSIDAD EAFIT.
    3. Bouzahzah, Mohamed & El Menyari, Younesse, 2012. "Les déterminants de la demande touristique: le cas du Maroc
      [Determinants of tourism demand: the case of Morocco]
      ," MPRA Paper 39029, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 May 2012.
    4. Ronald Ravinesh Kumar & Peter Josef Stauvermann & Arvind Patel & Nikeel Kumar & Selvin Prasad, 2016. "Exploring the Nexus Between Tourism and Output in Cook Islands: An ARDL Bounds Approach," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 128(3), pages 1085-1101, September.
    5. repec:bla:metroe:v:68:y:2017:i:4:p:1001-1018 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Nuno, Carlos Leitão & Muhammad, Shahbaz, 2011. "Migration and Tourist Flows," MPRA Paper 34905, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Nov 2011.
    7. repec:eee:touman:v:32:y:2011:i:3:p:564-575 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Zdravko Šergo & Amorino Poropat & Pavlo Ružić, 2014. "The determinants of length of stay and arrivals of tourists in the Croatia: a panel data approach," Tourism and Hospitality Industry section8-4, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management.
    9. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2008. "An Econometric Analysis of Aggregate Outbound Tourism Demand of Turkey," MPRA Paper 6765, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2008.

    More about this item


    tourism demand; cointegration; ARDL; Croatia;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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