IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hel/greese/107.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Arrivals of Tourists in Cyprus: Mind the Web Search Intensity

Author

Listed:
  • Theologos Dergiades
  • Eleni Mavragani
  • Bing Pan

Abstract

This paper validates the raison d’être of the effortlessly recovered web Search Intensity Indices (SII) for predicting the arrivals of tourists in Cyprus. By using monthly data (2004-2015) and two causality testing procedures we find, for properly selected key-phrases, that web search intensity (adjusted for different languages and different search engines) turns out to convey a useful predictive content for the arrivals of tourists in Cyprus. Additionally, we show that whenever the prevailing shares of visitors come from countries in different languages, then the identification of the aggregate SII becomes complex. Hence, we argue that blindly using key-phrases to identify an aggregate SII is like an immersion into the unknown, since two sources of bias (the language bias and the search engine bias) are fully neglected. Given the importance of the tourism sector in the total economy activity of Cyprus, our findings might prove to be quite useful to governmental agencies, policy makers and other stakeholders of the sector when their purpose is to allocate effectively the existing limited resources, and to plan short- and long-run promotion and investment strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Theologos Dergiades & Eleni Mavragani & Bing Pan, 2017. "Arrivals of Tourists in Cyprus: Mind the Web Search Intensity," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 107, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
  • Handle: RePEc:hel:greese:107
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.lse.ac.uk/europeanInstitute/research/hellenicObservatory/CMS%20pdf/Publications/GreeSE/GreeSE-No.107.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sofronis Clerides & Nicoletta Pashourtidou, 2007. "Tourism in Cyprus: Recent Trends and Lessons from the Tourist Satisfaction Survey," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 1(2), pages 51-72, December.
    2. Theologos Dergiades & Costas Milas & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2015. "Tweets, Google trends, and sovereign spreads in the GIIPS," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(2), pages 406-432.
    3. Adamos Adamou & Sofronis Clerides, 2010. "Prospects and Limits of Tourism-Led Growth: The International Evidence," Review of Economic Analysis, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, vol. 2(3), pages 287-303, September.
    4. Martin, Christine A. & Witt, Stephen F., 1989. "Forecasting tourism demand: A comparison of the accuracy of several quantitative methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-19.
    5. Zhi Da & Joseph Engelberg & Pengjie Gao, 2011. "In Search of Attention," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(5), pages 1461-1499, October.
    6. Hyunyoung Choi & Hal Varian, 2012. "Predicting the Present with Google Trends," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(s1), pages 2-9, June.
    7. repec:eee:touman:v:46:y:2015:i:c:p:386-397 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:eee:touman:v:45:y:2014:i:c:p:181-193 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Smith, Geoffrey Peter, 2012. "Google Internet search activity and volatility prediction in the market for foreign currency," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 103-110.
    10. repec:eee:touman:v:46:y:2015:i:c:p:454-464 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Eli Beracha & M. Babajide Wintoki, 2013. "Forecasting Residential Real Estate Price Changes from Online Search Activity," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 35(3), pages 283-312.
    12. Song, Haiyan & Witt, Stephen F. & Jensen, Thomas C., 2003. "Tourism forecasting: accuracy of alternative econometric models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 123-141.
    13. repec:eee:touman:v:32:y:2011:i:1:p:88-97 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Joseph, Kissan & Babajide Wintoki, M. & Zhang, Zelin, 2011. "Forecasting abnormal stock returns and trading volume using investor sentiment: Evidence from online search," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1116-1127, October.
    15. Breitung, Jorg & Candelon, Bertrand, 2006. "Testing for short- and long-run causality: A frequency-domain approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 363-378, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. John Hatgioannides & Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Menelaos Karanasos & Panagiotis Koutroumpis, 2017. "The Legacy of a Fractured Eurozone: the Greek Dra(ch)ma," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 115, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    2. John Hatgioannides & Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Menelaos Karanasos & Panagiotis Koutroumpis, 2017. "The Legacy of a Fractured Eurozone: the Greek Dra(ch)ma," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 115, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hel:greese:107. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Vassilis Monastiriotis). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.